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Crùbag

Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

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In fairness they will always have at least 45% sewn up before any election, until independence or another major party backs independence . At LEAST...

Labour's Holyrood branch cannot and will not ever back independence, as it will be clear how opportunistic they are being, abandoning their alleged belief in the UK as a nation state to chase votes. Beyond that, no would ever trust them to actually offer and fight an indyref, even if they did a 180 and said "look - we're not British nationalists anymore!"

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In fairness they will always have at least 45% sewn up before any election, until independence or another major party backs independence . At LEAST...

Can't you see that's a ridiculous position for our politics to be in though? Labour used to weigh the votes, got complacent/arrogant and are now (apparently) a complete irrelevance in Scotland, both at Westminster and Holyrood. The SNP are showing signs of that complacency themselves with numerous scandals, wishy washy budgets and nothing particularly inspiring or vote winning in their policies. They've got the community links which they seem to be maintaining reasonably well, and they've got a committed army of activists, young and old, I just don't want to see the momentum lost through complacency and entitlement.

For me, the SNP shouldn't be resting on their laurels just now. They've got the election sewn up, barring a complete nuclear meltdown, so they should be setting out a clear direction for Scotland/Holyrood/their Government. Swinney's budget is pretty much the definition of 'meh'.

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Haha haha

Fantastic News!!!! Merry Christmas to you all, especially all the Yes lads.... u know who you are!!

Got bad news for you after next may's SNP huge win, you will still be #betterTogether

Merry christmas.

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Couldn't agree more. There's a feeling that the SNP are treading water at the moment, happy just to win election after election because the opposition is so poor and they've got 45% of the vote sewn up before the campaigns even begin.

I see this a lot. The SNP are happy to win election after election.

And yet every soundbite, quote, tweet, e mail etc from Nicola Sturgeon all the way down to activists says the polls are good but we can't afford to sit back and relax.

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I see this a lot. The SNP are happy to win election after election.

And yet every soundbite, quote, tweet, e mail etc from Nicola Sturgeon all the way down to activists says the polls are good but we can't afford to sit back and relax.

It's all very well saying that, but what evidence is there that they're not sitting back and relaxing? I can't think of much that really defines a direction the Scottish government are currently taking, other than treading water and not upsetting anyone. A lot of big talk, but I'm not seeing too much action.

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Got bad news for you after next may's SNP huge win, you will still be #betterTogether

Merry christmas.

But North British Labour won't be. Pleasing.

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Scottish politics is just all a bit boring now. We either need the Conservatives to beat Labour into second place, or the Greens to challenge the Tories or Labour, or the Socialists to start winning seats or something just to make it a tad more unpredictable.

This time last year was fun trying to predict what big majorities the SNP could actually topple, in the end no one predicted they'd have won as many as they actually managed. Now all we can do is come up with about 3 holyrood seats that they *might* not win and then try to apportion the regional list somehow.

Current back of a fag packet prediction:

The SNP will win every constituency in Scotland apart from Orkney (LD) and Ayr, Eastwood and Ettrick, Roxborough & Berwickshire (all CON)

Greens will win a seat in every region, and 2 in Lothians.

The Lib Dems will only win 2 seats. Liam McArthur will hold on in Orkney and they'll keep their regional seat in the North East. Past and present party leaders Tavish Scott and Willie Rennie will be in the dole queue

The SNP will win an overall majority of 33

SNP 81

LAB 25

CON 13

GRN 8

LD 2

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It's all very well saying that, but what evidence is there that they're not sitting back and relaxing? I can't think of much that really defines a direction the Scottish government are currently taking, other than treading water and not upsetting anyone. A lot of big talk, but I'm not seeing too much action.

What do you want them to do? E mail you an itinerary of their activity?

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Can't you see that's a ridiculous position for our politics to be in though? Labour used to weigh the votes, got complacent/arrogant and are now (apparently) a complete irrelevance in Scotland, both at Westminster and Holyrood. The SNP are showing signs of that complacency themselves with numerous scandals, wishy washy budgets and nothing particularly inspiring or vote winning in their policies. They've got the community links which they seem to be maintaining reasonably well, and they've got a committed army of activists, young and old, I just don't want to see the momentum lost through complacency and entitlement.

For me, the SNP shouldn't be resting on their laurels just now. They've got the election sewn up, barring a complete nuclear meltdown, so they should be setting out a clear direction for Scotland/Holyrood/their Government. Swinney's budget is pretty much the definition of 'meh'.

It is a bit ridiculous. Only independence will resolve it

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Couldn't agree more. There's a feeling that the SNP are treading water at the moment, happy just to win election after election because the opposition is so poor and they've got 45% of the vote sewn up before the campaigns even begin.

I don't get that at all. The way I see it they can only work within the legal framework Westminster gives them and fight for as much as they can until such time as we're independent. Independence is the big vision, in effect.

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It is a bit ridiculous. Only independence will resolve it

This. Scotland is a region. Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems campaigned for it to remain a region. That's why their bleating about Scotland being a "one party state" shows them to be lying, venal b*****ds. Regions of states, which is what they want Scotland to be, are often espoused to one particular party which the people think will give their region a voice at national level. It used to be Labour, now it's the SNP. It is actual states that are free to have different regional interests - if Scotland achieves statehood, I have no doubt the political landscape will change and competing parties will find support in different areas of the new state.

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That you crying again fide because someone dared to ask question's of the SNP.

Maybe you would prefer a north korea style democracy in scotland.

People can ask questions all they want. They can also criticise. However, they have to remember if their contribution is just more one-sided SNPBad, they'll probably draw criticism on themselves.

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That said, a little humility from the SNP's supporters wouldn't go amiss.

The SNP don't have a monopoly on knowledge and would be better respected if they learned to tolerate differing points of view a little more.

I have been "Yes" since the late 1980s and the SNP has come on so much since that time. But there are elements of their talk-left-act-right agenda that may come back to haunt them in the medium term. I think they are wrong on council tax and wrong on income tax.

They also need to be careful not to let complacency and arrogance in. That's what killed new Labour at the turn of the century, with a similarly massive majority. Well, that and Tony Blair going mad.

No one expects anything other than a vast SNP win next year. But a victory delivered on the back of a now slightly tarnished lustre and the laughably pisspoor quality of the main opposition parties can ring slightly hollow.

Time for the SNP to be a bit bolder I think, rather than creeping around trying not to offend anybody. A visionary plan for a second majority term is needed along with the guts to see it through.

It's more about independence than the SNP. It would be nice to see the Geeen Party, as another pro-Independence Party, doing well. This might finally get the likes of the Lib-Dems to change their position on the constitution.

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But North British Labour won't be. Pleasing.

Is there any hope for SLAB? Do any young people still vote for them?

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Is there any hope for SLAB? Do any young people still vote for them?

What little voters they have left are towards t'other end of the age spectrum.

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Here's 3 things the SNP could do that would give them the appearance of a radical cutting edge without costing too much:

1. Raise income tax by 1p to cover the cost of protecting local authority spending on education. I'm sorry, but people have to see that if they want good public services then they come at a cost. This fantasy land of magical public services being provided without an increae in tax needs to be broken. For 30 years, as voters, we have expected Scandianvian style public services on Thatcher levels of tax. it doesn't work.

2. Urgently re-visit the Forth ferry crossing /hovercraft crossing which, if it had actually been invested in, would be taking a lot of the strain off roads. The SNP are addicted to roads; majorly the wrong long term transport and environmental strategy.

3. nationalise Trump's fucking golf course and let it go back to nature, without compensation, thereby drawing a line under Salmond's shameful kow-towing a few years ago and active intervention to promote the buffoon's fantasy bullshit about "thousands of jobs being created".

None of these policies are hugely radical or frightening of too many horses. But ti woiuld get people talking about the SNP as a radical party of government, willing to take bold decisions, rather than the dour penny pinching grey suited pragmatists they are becoming.

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Here's 3 things the SNP could do that would give them the appearance of a radical cutting edge without costing too much:

1. Raise income tax by 1p to cover the cost of protecting local authority spending on education. I'm sorry, but people have to see that if they want good public services then they come at a cost. This fantasy land of magical public services being provided without an increae in tax needs to be broken. For 30 years, as voters, we have expected Scandianvian style public services on Thatcher levels of tax. it doesn't work.

2. Urgently re-visit the Forth ferry crossing /hovercraft crossing which, if it had actually been invested in, would be taking a lot of the strain off roads. The SNP are addicted to roads; majorly the wrong long term transport and environmental strategy.

3. nationalise Trump's fucking golf course and let it go back to nature, without compensation, thereby drawing a line under Salmond's shameful kow-towing a few years ago and active intervention to promote the buffoon's fantasy bullshit about "thousands of jobs being created".

None of these policies are hugely radical or frightening of too many horses. But ti woiuld get people talking about the SNP as a radical party of government, willing to take bold decisions, rather than the dour penny pinching grey suited pragmatists they are becoming.

Nationalising a golf course :lol:

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What do you want them to do? E mail you an itinerary of their activity?

Shouldn't it be immediately obvious what impact a majority Government is having on a country? It's obviously not as easy as it is for the Tories at Westminster as they've got to work in the confines of devolution, but you should be able to pin point SOMETHING in the way of an impact. I'm genuinely struggling.

I don't get that at all. The way I see it they can only work within the legal framework Westminster gives them and fight for as much as they can until such time as we're independent. Independence is the big vision, in effect.

The referendum is probably the last big thing the SNP did and I agree that was their big vision. They obviously lost it, but at least it presented a vision that many got behind. They've said themselves that independence is on the back burner, which says to me they want to focus on governing what they can at the moment. What's the long term plan? The budget released last week didn't make it immediately clear to me, 'not taking polls for granted' doesn't either. I want to see a positive vision from the SNP, one which we know has to be in the union, but positive none the less.

The SNP will likely get my vote next year anyway - the only party that might win me round is the greens, and that's only because Patrick Harvie is standing in my constituency - I just want more clarity on Scotland's future under the SNP government.

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Is there any hope for SLAB? Do any young people still vote for them?

The generation who have no tribal loyalty to Labour, and who witnessed their utter contempt for Scotland during referendum campaign, are unlikely to just start voting for them.

Their "best of both worlds" claim has just been further and further blown apart as Scotland's requests in the Smith Commission and afterwards were turned down. The sight of scum like Darling being rewarded with peerages has also soured people towards "socialist" Labour.

"Best of both worlds" = a Scottish Parliament whose remit Westminster has authority over, and which hasn't even existed for twenty years. I really believe that the declining British Nationalist parties see the end in sight. It will now be their goal to extract as much from "Jockestan" before they lose it. Blair certainly thought this when he and Dewar pushed through border changes before the Scottish Parliament was established (prior to which we presumably didn't have the "best of both worlds", and must therefore have been in an awful position, which Labour and the Tories still blindly supported).

Edited by Antlion

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