Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Granny Danger]

I'm interested in what radical policies you think the SNP can and should implement.

I believe the powers that they have are limited, however one of the few redistributive options they have is in relation to local taxation in which they have chosen to freeze the council tax for 9 years with a severe impact on local Council services. They couldn't make changes during their minority government but they've had almost five years of majority.

Of course the real litmus test will be when further taxation powers are available.

[Baxter Parp]

I believe the powers that they have are limited, however one of the few redistributive options they have is in relation to local taxation in which they have chosen to freeze the council tax for 9 years with a severe impact on local Council services. They couldn't make changes during their minority government but they've had almost five years of majority.

Of course the real litmus test will be when further taxation powers are available.

That's it? They haven't replaced the council tax quick enough? Even though they attempted to change it years ago and couldn't get enough support for it? If you take that into account and the length of time the latest report has taken that gives you three, four years or so when they weren't trying to institute changes to local taxation.

[WullieBroonIsGod]

Mon the greens.

That is all

[Granny Danger]

That's it? They haven't replaced the council tax quick enough? Even though they attempted to change it years ago and couldn't get enough support for it? If you take that into account and the length of time the latest report has taken that gives you three, four years or so when they weren't trying to institute changes to local taxation.

Like I say one of the few redistributive policies they have at present. Anyway I'm glad you think they're radical enough and I hope you will feel the same as their powers increase.

[vikingTON]

Labour.

Unionism.

Good to note that after a few back of a fag packet calculations on here, the list of apparent 'radical' changes demanded by the posturing set of an SNP administration has been reduced to to, erm, a hovercraft service across the Forth and the ownership of a golf course. Crucial issues that have clearly been shamefully neglected in 8 years of government, which is reflected in their dismal polling figures.

[John Lambies Doos]

Nationalising a golf course

Ha ha

[Ivo den Bieman]

1. Given teacher numbers are protected, and they can't even fill those posts, and there is 100s of millions going into non teaching resource what exactly is it you are spending your education tax on. How much would it raise?

2. How would replacing one mile of road in a network take the strain off roads?

3. Whilst I would love to see this happen what is the legal mechanism for achieving this?

1. why then are local authorities screaming that the council tax freeze is directly harming local schools, after Swinney's latest budget, if everything is just hunkydory?

2. by being a small part of a long term investment in public transport, getting over government's obsession with providing crap public transport and forcing everyone into cars. I was providing a list of examples of policy directions, not three magic bullets.

3. Well, I'd imagine, take it over as part of a compulsory purchase order. I am sure some would prefer the Mugabe solution of taking over and telling Trump to GTF. All of which could have been avoided, of course, but for wee Eck's sameful greasing of planning wheels, and setting aside local democracy, for his bullshitting corporate friends.

[strichener]

1. why then are local authorities screaming that the council tax freeze is directly harming local schools, after Swinney's latest budget, if everything is just hunkydory?

They aren't, they are claiming that they are being penalised for not employing enough teachers regardless of their intentions. I know that in Aberdeen City and Shire there have been massive problems in recruitment of teachers, especially secondary schools. Aberdeenshire had to pony up £8000 relocation assistance and reduced rent accommodation to fill their vacancies. Meanwhile Aberdeen City have spent £700,000 on advertisements for teaching positions and have "lost" £300k of funding for not being successful.

The current policy from the SNP government is lunacy and the sooner they recognise this the better it will be for kids at school.

[Ivo den Bieman]

fair enough stichener, I had misunderstood that. Thanks for the clarification.

[invergowrie arab]

1. why then are local authorities screaming that the council tax freeze is directly harming local schools, after Swinney's latest budget, if everything is just hunkydory?

2. by being a small part of a long term investment in public transport, getting over government's obsession with providing crap public transport and forcing everyone into cars. I was providing a list of examples of policy directions, not three magic bullets.

3. Well, I'd imagine, take it over as part of a compulsory purchase order. I am sure some would prefer the Mugabe solution of taking over and telling Trump to GTF. All of which could have been avoided, of course, but for wee Eck's sameful greasing of planning wheels, and setting aside local democracy, for his bullshitting corporate friends.

1. Cite your source please. Generic Jackie Baillie style rants about "cuts damaging schools and hospitals" don't count. I work in a local authority in children's services. Cash in school settings isn't the issue.

If you want to talk about a progressive tax system where people pay more to fund all public services that's fine. However, don't forget that what you are suggesting is not investing in better services is just amelioration of Westminster Tory cuts.

2. I don't disagree we need a much better Co-ordinated public transport system that provides a real alternative to car travel. Putting on a hovercraft that would carry a negligible percentage of current bridge traffic wouldn't do a single thing to solve that.

3. What's your legal basis for a CPO?

What do you think it would cost?

[Scary Bear]

I second the three points Ivo's suggested and add a fourth: kill every landowner in the country and take their land back.

Couldn't you just tax them on the land they own?

[Ivo den Bieman]

1. Cite your source please. Generic Jackie Baillie style rants about "cuts damaging schools and hospitals" don't count. I work in a local authority in children's services. Cash in school settings isn't the issue.

If you want to talk about a progressive tax system where people pay more to fund all public services that's fine. However, don't forget that what you are suggesting is not investing in better services is just amelioration of Westminster Tory cuts.

2. I don't disagree we need a much better Co-ordinated public transport system that provides a real alternative to car travel. Putting on a hovercraft that would carry a negligible percentage of current bridge traffic wouldn't do a single thing to solve that.

3. What's your legal basis for a CPO?

What do you think it would cost?

1. why would i quote a failed Labour politician as vindication of anything? If the likes of Jackie Baillie said it was sunny outside I'd leave the house wearing a raincoat.

there are reams of articles (COSLA bing the most vocal) since the budget was presented bemoaning the disastrous effects these cuts will have on local councils and the services they provide.

further, as strichener has already pointed out, I misunderstood the issue.

2. how do you know? it's the direction of travel that counts here, not a single issue which you appear determined to fixate on. A well run hovercraft /ferry service operating at peak times would significantly help with congestion on the bridges.

3. The legal basis could set aside the government's earlier intervention as mistaken. The environmental concerns that should have stopped the bewigged Trump raping an extremely environmentally sensitive area, a plan rejected rightly by local councillors, sadly were set aside by Salmond in the pursuit of fools' gold.

Where there's a will there's a way. The Trump episode is so toxic for the SNP it's no wonder they want to bag it up and hope it stops stinking the place out as soon as possible.

[strichener]

1. Cash in school settings isn't the issue.

It quite clearly is. As a parent that is asked to pay for copies of course notes that the school cannot afford the photocopy then cash is a real issue.

[Granny Danger]

'My party right or wrong' was/is one of the big failings of SLab, it's important that it doesn't become a mantra for the SNP.

The freeze on Council Tax has been damaging; it's is a progressive tax however flawed and their are mechanisms to ensure the worst off don't have to pay.

The monies available to the Scottish Government is finite and money diverted to local authorities to try to ameliorate the effects of the freeze simply means less to spend elsewhere.

[invergowrie arab]

It quite clearly is. As a parent that is asked to pay for copies of course notes that the school cannot afford the photocopy then cash is a real issue.

Let's put it another way. It's what the money is used for that's the issue.

[invergowrie arab]

1. why would i quote a failed Labour politician as vindication of anything? If the likes of Jackie Baillie said it was sunny outside I'd leave the house wearing a raincoat.

there are reams of articles (COSLA bing the most vocal) since the budget was presented bemoaning the disastrous effects these cuts will have on local councils and the services they provide.

further, as strichener has already pointed out, I misunderstood the issue.

2. how do you know? it's the direction of travel that counts here, not a single issue which you appear determined to fixate on. A well run hovercraft /ferry service operating at peak times would significantly help with congestion on the bridges.

3. The legal basis could set aside the government's earlier intervention as mistaken. The environmental concerns that should have stopped the bewigged Trump raping an extremely environmentally sensitive area, a plan rejected rightly by local councillors, sadly were set aside by Salmond in the pursuit of fools' gold.

Where there's a will there's a way. The Trump episode is so toxic for the SNP it's no wonder they want to bag it up and hope it stops stinking the place out as soon as possible.

2. Well we agree on the direction of travel. I am " fixating" as it was you that stated that one particular project needed revisiting urgently. It has been suggested that the majority of traffic across the bridge is not Edinburgh bound.

3. We will just leave this one as , much as it would be a braw laugh, there is no legal mechanism through CPO or otherwise, that the Scottish Government or the appropriate local authority could use to appropriate the land that would have any chance of holding up in court and wouldn't cost an absolute fortune that wouldn't be better spent elsewhere.

FWIW I would love to see the SNP be more radical I just thought your suggestions were guff xx

I'm in the "SNP are the best route to independence" boat. That position is probably one that has a finite lifespan.

[Ivo den Bieman]

...no later than 2021, i suspect.

as has been said earlier the SNP have had a fair wind until now, but people will be all over them after their inevitable landslde next year. Maybe the problems with FRB (not their fault at all) and local government spending (partly their fault given the tax levers at their disposal) are intimations of the kind of scrutiny they will face after May next year.

we are back to my original point hours ans hours ago, which was that 1. the SNP don't have a monopoly on wisdom and 2. should be more tolerant of constructive differences with their policies 3. should do a bit more with the enormous political capital they have than just creeping round like retired bank managers trying not to offend anybody, or spend any money.

[The Master]

That said, a little humility from the SNP's supporters wouldn't go amiss.

The SNP don't have a monopoly on knowledge and would be better respected if they learned to tolerate differing points of view a little more.

I have been "Yes" since the late 1980s and the SNP has come on so much since that time. But there are elements of their talk-left-act-right agenda that may come back to haunt them in the medium term. I think they are wrong on council tax and wrong on income tax.

They also need to be careful not to let complacency and arrogance in. That's what killed new Labour at the turn of the century, with a similarly massive majority. Well, that and Tony Blair going mad.

No one expects anything other than a vast SNP win next year. But a victory delivered on the back of a now slightly tarnished lustre and the laughably pisspoor quality of the main opposition parties can ring slightly hollow.

Time for the SNP to be a bit bolder I think, rather than creeping around trying not to offend anybody. A visionary plan for a second majority term is needed along with the guts to see it through.

Damnit, I owe you two greenies - stupid fingers tapped red on my tablet instead of green.

Edit: duly done.

[DrewDon]

I think I can identify two prime motivations for the SNP being somewhat managerial and timid at the moment, rather than radical.

The first is that, as recent polls and projections demonstrate, they are seemingly on their way to a comfortable majority at Holyrood in 2016. Whilst the shock element of such a landslide has somewhat dissipated, it should be remembered that the Additional Members System is designed against producing majority, one-party administrations. If the SNP does attain something resembling 80 seats in May, then that is a fantastic haul, even if Scottish Labour is in complete disarray. So why risk changing anything at the moment? If there is no conceivable threat from Labour or the Tories, then what reason is there for the SNP to adopt a radically different direction at this point in the electoral cycle? Why risk isolating voters whose support is perhaps conditional on the SNP curbing some of their members' more radical instincts?

I think the second motivation is with more than half an eye to a second referendum. The SNP, despite seemingly being perceived as competent and capable managing a devolved administration, must do more to practically prove that Scotland can 'live within its means'. This will essentially mean an ongoing appeal to those who were turned off by the Yes campaign's more radical, overtly left-of-centre message in 2014. If the SNP can continue to boast satisfactory public services without hiking up taxes, then that will attract more voters who were perhaps unattracted to the prospect of higher taxes in an independent Scotland, or didn't accept that sound public services could be delivered without increases in general taxation (especially when you consider that those most worried about increased taxes may not be the same people most reliant on said public services). Whilst opposing austerity, it is imperative to any future referendum success that the SNP appeals to those concerned that the previous case for independence was primarily a product of the heart rather than the head.

Whilst I sympathise with Ivo's sentiment regarding the SNP becoming more tolerant of those with policy differences, I would suggest Sturgeon is doing exactly that by rejecting radicalism and essentially embracing a period of patient managerialism and discipline.

[Double Jack D]

I have to admit that I'm a bit perplexed at the demands for the SNP to do something radical. Approaching 9 years in Government and currently well over 50% in the polls (heavily weighted toward younger voters) does not strike me as a party in need of doing something different.

Their role just now is to competently govern Scotland and mitigate what they can from the damaging cuts coming from Westminster until we are either:

1. Independent or

2. The better together promises start to materialise

One of the above two scenarios will happen within the next 5 or 6 years..... I'm fairly confident which one my money is on.