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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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Tactical voting is effective if organised over time - it worked, for example, to get rid of all Tory MPs in the first place.

The campaign at the GE was not effective because it was not well established and stank of pure panic.

In Ian Murray's seat, a seat with a fair amount of traditional Tory voters, the Tory vote was reduced well below the Scottish average. Without a detailed poll of the constituency we will never know but I wouldn't be surprised if tactical voting was a factor here.

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In general I would agree, but it may have played a part in Ian Murray retaining his seat.

The Tory vote only slipped by 800 or so, and it'd be odd to call Lib Dems voting for Labour "tactical" in a seat they only lost by 216 votes in 2010. Bad press for the SNP candidate got Murray in by default. I don't think there's a case for tactical voting to have played a part in any seat at all in Scotland.

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In Ian Murray's seat, a seat with a fair amount of traditional Tory voters, the Tory vote was reduced well below the Scottish average. Without a detailed poll of the constituency we will never know but I wouldn't be surprised if tactical voting was a factor here.

Yes, but the SNP boy Hay did himself no favours with his historic tweets.

Murray carried a big Jambo support also.

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Yes, but the SNP boy Hay did himself no favours with his historic tweets.

Murray carried a big Jambo support also.

There was VERY little wrong with Hay's historic tweets.

It was the media portrayal of said tweets which did for Hay, spurred on by a gleeful Labour party.

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There was VERY little wrong with Hay's historic tweets.

It was the media portrayal of said tweets which did for Hay, spurred on by a gleeful Labour party.

Totally agree, it got far more media coverage than it merited; a good example to those who claim the media has little or no impact.

I would have been glorious if we had taken this seat too.

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There was VERY little wrong with Hay's historic tweets.

It was the media portrayal of said tweets which did for Hay, spurred on by a gleeful Labour party.

I don't think the tweets were a major factor, I think it was more to do with the fact that Edinburgh South has one of the highest concentrations of rUK born people in Scotland, who would rather vote anyone other than the SNP.

There's also the fact that Murray is pretty popular with the Hearts contingent.

Edinburgh South was the only seat that the SNP weren't really close to winning so I think there's an argument that tactical voting was in place. Could probably say the same in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale where the SNP were miles ahead a week or so before polling day.

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Could probably say the same in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale where the SNP were miles ahead a week or so before polling day.

Did Ashcroft not have them 11% ahead?! It looked almost certain that if the Tories were going to have any Scottish seats, it'd be in BRS. Could probably be argued that tactical voting may have played a part, considering that Mundell actually increased his share of the vote.

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I don't think the tweets were a major factor, I think it was more to do with the fact that Edinburgh South has one of the highest concentrations of rUK born people in Scotland, who would rather vote anyone other than the SNP.

There's also the fact that Murray is pretty popular with the Hearts contingent.

Edinburgh South was the only seat that the SNP weren't really close to winning so I think there's an argument that tactical voting was in place. Could probably say the same in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale where the SNP were miles ahead a week or so before polling day.

As Sooky said, Ashcroft had the SNP comfortably ahead in Edinburgh South. It was the media demonisation of Neil Hay which allowed Murray to cling on to his seat.

Conversely, I don't remember the SNP ever being "miles ahead" in D, C & T. Did Fluffily Mundelly not win his seat by about 900 votes?

Also, Shetland voted SNP. It was only Orkney that saved that piece of shit Carmichael.

All told, I think the SNP were something like 4,500 votes shy of winniing every seat in Scotland.

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As Sooky said, Ashcroft had the SNP comfortably ahead in Edinburgh South. It was the media demonisation of Neil Hay which allowed Murray to cling on to his seat.

Conversely, I don't remember the SNP ever being "miles ahead" in D, C & T. Did Fluffily Mundelly not win his seat by about 900 votes?

I was referring to the Ashcroft poll for DCT, not Edinburgh South.

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I was referring to the Ashcroft poll for DCT, not Edinburgh South.

Unless Ashcroft did another one for Mundell's seat, that I've forgotten about, the poll had it as neck and neck

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Slightly OT but things would have been so much harder for Labour if we had won Murray's seat. No Scottish Labour MPs and having to appoint someone representing an English or Welsh constituency as their Scottish spokesperson would have made hem even more vulnerable.

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Unless Ashcroft did another one for Mundell's seat, that I've forgotten about, the poll had it as neck and neck

An Ashcroft poll at the start of April had 36% SNP and 34% Tory. One at the end of April had 42% SNP and 31% Tory. So I was actually quite shocked that Mundell held on.

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I dont think he ever polled Edinburgh South

Quick Twitter check suggests he did on 20th April. 37% SNP to 34% Labour.

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