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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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Can't see this yet but apologies if I've usurped someone else's thread.

It's early but the seemingly growing army of pro-Indy tacticians is already turning its attention to this one.

http://scottishpolling.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/snp-supporters-approach-2016.html

And, no Ukip! Labour down 7 seats... though there's a long time to go. It could get even worse for them...

How should SNP supporters approach the 2016 Scottish election?

Last week, the SNP saw a massive surge in the UK general election - gaining 50 seats. The question now is whether SNP supporters should give their regional list vote to the Greens in the 2016 Scottish election, to ensure a pro-independence majority.

YG-May2015-Pred.PNG

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Quite difficult to predict because of the PR system but here goes

All 73 constituencies will go SNP with the exception of Orkney (Lib Dem) and Ettrick, Roxborough and Berwickshire (Tory)

Additional seats:

Central: Labour 4, SNP 1, Tories 1, Greens 1

Glasgow: Labour 4, SNP 1, Tories 1, Greens 1

Highlands: SNP 2, Tories 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1, Greens 1

Lothian: Labour 2, Tories 2, Greens 2, SNP 1

Mid Scotland: Labour 3, Tories 2, SNP 1, Greens 1

North East: Labour 3, Tories 2, SNP 1, Lib Dems 1

South: Labour 3, Tories 2, Greens 1, Lib Dems 1

West: Labour 4, Tories 2, Greens 1

Total seats:

SNP - 78 seats

Labour - 24 seats

Conservatives - 15 seats

Greens - 8 seats

Liberal Democrats - 4 seats

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Quite difficult to predict because of the PR system but here goes

All 73 constituencies will go SNP with the exception of Orkney (Lib Dem) and Ettrick, Roxborough and Berwickshire (Tory)

Additional seats:

Central: Labour 4, SNP 1, Tories 1, Greens 1

Glasgow: Labour 4, SNP 1, Tories 1, Greens 1

Highlands: SNP 2, Tories 2, Labour 1, Lib Dems 1, Greens 1

Lothian: Labour 2, Tories 2, Greens 2, SNP 1

Mid Scotland: Labour 3, Tories 2, SNP 1, Greens 1

North East: Labour 3, Tories 2, SNP 1, Lib Dems 1

South: Labour 3, Tories 2, Greens 1, Lib Dems 1

West: Labour 4, Tories 2, Greens 1

Total seats:

SNP - 78 seats

Labour - 24 seats

Conservatives - 15 seats

Greens - 8 seats

Liberal Democrats - 4 seats

It's Roxburgh not Roxborough. Sorry, minor irritant.

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Looks like an SNP/ Green vote would maximise the pro-Indy contingent.

As I'm not party political - i'm fine with this. Wouldn't mind Colin Fox getting in for the SSP as well - never rated him much but he's grown on me somewhat since the IndyRef.

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Can't wait for the bloodbath when the newly-out-a-job troughers try to muscle onto the lists. :lol:

It would be a disgrace if the troughers get on this list. Any eejit who still fancies a career in the labour party would be put right off. The troughers failed and failed badly... they need to step away and try and salvage some dignity

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It would be a disgrace if the troughers get on this list. Any eejit who still fancies a career in the labour party would be put right off. The troughers failed and failed badly... they need to step away and try and salvage some dignity

Ex labour MPs and dignity? You've more chance with ex Labour MPs and Dignitas.

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Can't make any accurate predictions just now really. Think a lot will depend on who the new Labour leader is, how and what the 56 do at Westminster and whether any of the ex Labour and Lib Dem MPs will try and get in.

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What is the best way to hurt Labour.? Voting SNP twice or SNP and Greens ?

SNP/Green

Assuming a near clean sweep of constituencies, the SNP will take at very most 1 list seat in each region, whereas the Greens could take a ton of list seats if the majority of the SNP vote went to them.

Most regions have 9 constituencies, so the SNP list vote will be getting divided by ten before they even do the first stage of the regional lists.

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