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Holyrood '16 polls and predictions


Crùbag

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I don't think either the Greens or UKIP will do that well come the day (although the proxmity of the EU referendum might give UKIP a boost).

The questions around tax are interesting. There is a pretty even split around raising income tax and leaving it the same, but unfortunately for Labour, not much support for raising the basic rate as they'd have to under Calman.

What will be interesting now that there is a settlement around Smith, will Swinney alter those rates? Will Labour modify their plans now that a more flexible option is available, or will they stick to thier current plan?

How do they end up with more UKIP than LibDem seats from that poll despite LibDems getting higher % on the list?

Can't imagine UKIP will muster 7 seats......surely

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Let's be honest, the majority of people who vote Tory (or will vote UKIP) in Scotland are rUKers who live up here. The rest are self-loathing weirdos like Reynard.

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Patrick Harvie got elected with just over 12,000 votes on the second ballot.

He came last on the list.

Have Ukip got 12,000 nobodies in Glasgow to vote for them?

Ibrox?

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You could drive a bus between those two polls. I suspect one may be too optimistic and one too pessimistic, which way around depending upon your point of view I guess.

Seriously though, UKIP 7 seats? It would have to be a hell of a boost from the EU referendum for that to happen.

even as a UKIP member i dont think they will get 7 seats.. we was expected to get like none so any is a good thing

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I could put up with the wankathon, I want Labour humiliated!

It will be the top story. "Tory resurgence!", "Scotland returning to its conservative ideals!", "the new face of Scottish politics!". Much like you could've been mistaking for thinking UKIP came first in Scotland at the last Euro election.

Just nah. I'll have Labour sneaking into second and Sturgeon to have whichever no mark they appoint leader next as a weekly sparring partner in Holyrood.

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It will be the top story. "Tory resurgence!", "Scotland returning to its conservative ideals!", "the new face of Scottish politics!". Much like you could've been mistaking for thinking UKIP came first in Scotland at the last Euro election.

Just nah. I'll have Labour sneaking into second and Sturgeon to have whichever no mark they appoint leader next as a weekly sparring partner in Holyrood.

I think "Kez" has said she's in it for the long haul, no matter what a pasting her grubby little branch office takes. Obviously her paymasters can't find another sacrificial lamb and so she's been ordered to keep publicly humiliating herself (and Scotland) weekly. Who knew clowns could earn such huge pay cheques just by being figures of ridicule?

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I think "Kez" has said she's in it for the long haul, no matter what a pasting her grubby little branch office takes. Obviously her paymasters can't find another sacrificial lamb and so she's been ordered to keep publicly humiliating herself (and Scotland) weekly. Who knew clowns could earn such huge pay cheques just by being figures of ridicule?

No danger. She will be knifed in the back for sarwar or some other failure with a profile.

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No danger. She will be knifed in the back for sarwar or some other failure with a profile.

I would bloody love another slab "leadership" contest. It would be beyond parody, especially when they've already been publicly ridiculed for their astounding turnover of nonentities on live TV.

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60% seems a wee bit too high, so my guess would be it's a stastical outlier. Bet Ruth Davidson is livid with David Cameron for holding the referendum so close to the Holyrood election. If UKIP start taking MSPs it will mainly be at the Tories expense and could cost her the leadership job as expectations were raised about finishing second before the referendum call.

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60% seems a wee bit too high, so my guess would be it's a stastical outlier. Bet Ruth Davidson is livid with David Cameron for holding the referendum so close to the Holyrood election. If UKIP start taking MSPs it will mainly be at the Tories expense and could cost her the leadership job as expectations were raised about finishing second before the referendum call.

Ruth wanted to be subservient to the decisions of a Tory UK Prime Minister. Can't see how she has any call to be livid after fighting so hard to be irrelevant.

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The SNP regional vote will be much higher than polled - that's a long-standing issue with the polls (respondents being thick and answering a 'second preference' question). If more of the raging BritNat vote peels off to UKIP then all the better, as it'd be less efficient on the list and get a couple more good guys in.

The very fact that a poll showing 60% SNP is being discussed only as an outlier tells us all we need to know about the obliteration of the old political order.

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So the SNP have announced their reforms to council tax:

The 4 highest bands will be rejigged to create an extra £100 million in revenue - which will be reinvested in schools via future Government grant settlements

There will also be an extention for tax relief on low income households with children.

The freeze will be lifted in July 2017 and councils will be allowed to up CT by 3% maximum per year (which could raise a further £70 million for services).

Beyond that there is to be consulation on exchanging a portion of the fixed revenue grant in favour of the same portion of the devolced income tax. That local income tax would then be varied on a needs based formula (making councils responsible for 75% of revenue).

There will also be a consultation on a tax levied on derelict/undeveloped land. Effectively a proto-LVT of sorts.

So, that definitely looks like the hybrid approach recommended by the commission, with rejigged upper bands targeted at raising revenue for schools, alongside a removal of the freeze and longer term commitments to trying to get a local income tax and some limited form of LVT in place.

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So the SNP have announced their reforms to council tax:

The 4 highest bands will be rejigged to create an extra £100 million in revenue - which will be reinvested in schools via future Government grant settlements

There will also be an extention for tax relief on low income households with children.

The freeze will be lifted in July 2017 and councils will be allowed to up CT by 3% maximum per year (which could raise a further £70 million for services).

Beyond that there is to be consulation on exchanging a portion of the fixed revenue grant in favour of the same portion of the devolced income tax. That local income tax would then be varied on a needs based formula (making councils responsible for 75% of revenue).

There will also be a consultation on a tax levied on derelict/undeveloped land. Effectively a proto-LVT of sorts.

So, that definitely looks like the hybrid approach recommended by the commission, with rejigged upper bands targeted at raising revenue for schools, alongside a removal of the freeze and longer term commitments to trying to get a local income tax and some limited form of LVT in place.

Hallelujah.For once sanity prevails.
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So the SNP have announced their reforms to council tax:

The 4 highest bands will be rejigged to create an extra £100 million in revenue - which will be reinvested in schools via future Government grant settlements

There will also be an extention for tax relief on low income households with children.

The freeze will be lifted in July 2017 and councils will be allowed to up CT by 3% maximum per year (which could raise a further £70 million for services).

Beyond that there is to be consulation on exchanging a portion of the fixed revenue grant in favour of the same portion of the devolced income tax. That local income tax would then be varied on a needs based formula (making councils responsible for 75% of revenue).

There will also be a consultation on a tax levied on derelict/undeveloped land. Effectively a proto-LVT of sorts.

So, that definitely looks like the hybrid approach recommended by the commission, with rejigged upper bands targeted at raising revenue for schools, alongside a removal of the freeze and longer term commitments to trying to get a local income tax and some limited form of LVT in place.

That looks entirely reasonable to me. Looking forward to Labour's accusations of Thatcherism again tbh.

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It'll be interesting to see what becomes of the devolved income tax. I don't think the SNP can leave it as, not after all the hue and cry of actually getting the b*****ding thing devolved. Certainly letting the councils vary it locally is a good thing, but at a national level, I reckon they'll struggle to avoid some kind of change - both symbolically and politically, if not for economic reasons. I reckon you'll see a return of the 50p tax rate (doesn't raise that much in Scotland anyway) but looks a damn sight more progressive than Labour's flat rate increase. Personally I kind of like the Common Weal suggestion of bumping the 45p tax band up to 50p, but also introducing a 43p tax rate at incomes over £50,000.

One thing I did wonder about - although ScotGov can't touch the personal allowance, is there anything stopping it introducing a second 0% tax band, in order to effectively increase the PA?

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