John Lambies Doos Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Look, Colkitto, I know that you were obsessed with polls showing #momentum in the referendum and were found to be completely wrong about the implications of them then, but you don't have to repeat your mistakes. This is ONE poll in which the regional list vote is within 2 points. The margin of error is such that this could be 4 or 5 points. The trend of the polls still shows Labour clearly ahead. It is very unlikely that the Tories will come second in May. Their average share of the vote in polls across all companies in the last 6 months on the list vote has been about 14%. They will probably do slightly better than that, but Labour are not going to drop below 20% of the vote on the list on polling day. Of course, Labour could lose the national list vote and still come ahead of the Tories on seats. It depends in no small part on how evenly distributed their vote is across the country's electoral regions. ^ eh.. keep up the good work colkitto. I for one enjoy your polling posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sophia Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Of course, Labour could lose the national list vote and still come ahead of the Tories on seats. It depends in no small part on how evenly distributed their vote is across the country's electoral regions.^Not at all certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 The "Tory momentum in the polls" is good chattering material, but they're not going to come second. People said the same sort of thing about the SNP ever having more than 50 MPs. Kezia Dugdale is in the job, because none of the big hitters wanted to do a Jim Murphy in this election, but they are at a pivotal point in their history where they need an above average leader to start to reconnect with at least some of the voters that have drifted away from them in recent years. Unless Kezia Dugdale starts to look like a credible leader by May, the presidential style of modern elections could hurt them and some of their core electorate may simply decide to stay at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 People said the same sort of thing about the SNP ever having more than 50 MPs. Kezia Dugdale is in the job, because none of the big hitters wanted to do a Jim Murphy in this election, but they are at a pivotal point in their history where they need an above average leader to start to reconnect with at least some of the voters that have drifted away from them in recent years. Unless Kezia Dugdale starts to look like a credible leader by May, the presidential style of modern elections could hurt them and some of their core electorate may simply decide to stay at home. Genuine question: who are the big hitters in that monkey queef of a party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Genuine question: who are the big hitters in that monkey queef of a party? They have none but all it takes is one figure to emerge who is judged to be competent by the public. Neither David Cameron nor Tony Blair were particularly well known prior to being elected leaders of their respective parties but, despite any personal views I have of them, one was electorally successful and the other is still being electorally successful. The same could happen in a Scottish context for Labour, though recent history is not on their side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 They have none but all it takes is one figure to emerge who is judged to be competent by the public. Neither David Cameron nor Tony Blair were particularly well known prior to being elected leaders of their respective parties but, despite any personal views I have of them, one was electorally successful and the other is still being electorally successful. The same could happen in a Scottish context for Labour, though recent history is not on their side. And here's one of their problems - their current figures are all pretty well-known (I'm speaking of their MSPs and single MP). If they want someone new to come up - someone without baggage or taint - they'll need to attract decent people. I cannot for the life of me see many ambitious, potential "big hitters" going into a directionless, unpopular, visionless mess. They used to at least get talented people because it was a safe road to career progression - and in the last few years even the cream of their careerists have been the likes of Dugdale. It's astonishing just how much one branch office has managed to monumentally f**k up (helped by their UK leaders, of course). Virtually every spokesperson the branch office thrusts forward these days is either a monumental embarrassment, a nutjob or a blithering idiot (or all three). Times are hard when Dugdale is your leader, Baillie is your rent-a-gob and Murray is your go-to-guy for UK affairs. It's breathtaking how swift Slab's self-caused downfall has been. Even the Tories managed a slow decline with some lingering competent figures hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 To add: it strikes me that Labour always looked down on Scotland's wee pretendy, second-rate parliament and ensured it was populated by Councillors they thought had earned a promotion. Their Scottish "talent" was reserved for their bevy of safe Westminster seats. Losing all but one of those seats was unforeseen and unimaginable, especially for a party notorious for short term thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Of course, Labour could lose the national list vote and still come ahead of the Tories on seats. It depends in no small part on how evenly distributed their vote is across the country's electoral regions. Doubt it will happen. If Labour lose on the list? They'd be truly fucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 They're utterly fucked, regardless of whether they or the Tories end up the smaller of the two rump parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look, Colkitto, I know that you were obsessed with polls showing #momentum in the referendum and were found to be completely wrong about the implications of them then, but you don't have to repeat your mistakes. This is ONE poll in which the regional list vote is within 2 points. The margin of error is such that this could be 4 or 5 points. The trend of the polls still shows Labour clearly ahead. It is very unlikely that the Tories will come second in May. Their average share of the vote in polls across all companies in the last 6 months on the list vote has been about 14%. They will probably do slightly better than that, but Labour are not going to drop below 20% of the vote on the list on polling day. Of course, Labour could lose the national list vote and still come ahead of the Tories on seats. It depends in no small part on how evenly distributed their vote is across the country's electoral regions. This post has been brought to you by a Liberal Democrat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Genuine question: who are the big hitters in that monkey queef of a party? The obvious ones are Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, who are both only in their mid-60s and are younger than Jeremy Corbyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The obvious ones are Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, who are both only in their mid-60s and are younger than Jeremy Corbyn. I'd add in "I will get a job, don't you worry" Douglas Alexander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The obvious ones are Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, who are both only in their mid-60s and are younger than Jeremy Corbyn. Both slinked off to enjoy their ill-gotten rewards for selling Scotland down the Thames. The socialist Lord Darling is too busy snuggling in his ermine to be involved in frontline politics and Brown evidently wanted to be known as "the man who saved the UK" - his only political engagements since standing down as a shit MP have been a laughable and ineffective attempt to halt Corbyn's leadership bid and a largely unreported attempt at a "barnstorming" EU speech. Brown is not taken seriously anywhere anymore - except maybe in those circles in which he enriches himself and his wife. Actually, during the referendum campaign I began to wonder if the constantly-repeated media claim that Brown was "still a hugely-respected figure in Scotland, if not the rest of the UK" was just a fiction invented to make us all seem tribal, parochial buffoons who have slavish allegiance to those with Scottish accents, whilst the more astute rest of the UK were wise enough to reject him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The fate of Labour will be decided in the list vote. They won't win many, if any constituent seats going by a series of opinion polls showing the SNP way head. I still say you can't rule out the Tories coming 2nd no matter how unlikely that seems. Ruthie comes over well in debate and interview, albeit she talks a lot of crap. If Kezia doesn't have a good campaign then they could lose even more votes. And lets face it, she will now have to justify those election promises in a Labour manifesto and show they are properly costed. Not their strong point... It will be interesting to see the Tory tactics. Will it be another Better Together campaign or will the Tories attack Labour? Monumental blunder if they don't! In my opinion Ruthie has to all out attack Labour as the SNP are not the Tories main opponents this time. It's all about the battle for 2nd place for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Every post you do is full of bitter anger aimed at any person/party who had influence in keeping scotland in the uk. Your hatred and disgust aimed at these scottish people is standard cyber nat pish. You're not trying hard enough, kev. You need to include more comedy phrases like "union hater" if you really want to sell the semi-literate BritNat character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menzel Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The fate of Labour will be decided in the list vote. They won't win many, if any constituent seats going by a series of opinion polls showing the SNP way head. I still say you can't rule out the Tories coming 2nd no matter how unlikely that seems. Ruthie comes over well in debate and interview, albeit she talks a lot of crap. If Kezia doesn't have a good campaign then they could lose even more votes. And lets face it, she will now have to justify those election promises in a Labour manifesto and show they are properly costed. Not their strong point... It will be interesting to see the Tory tactics. Will it be another Better Together campaign or will the Tories attack Labour? Monumental blunder if they don't! In my opinion Ruthie has to all out attack Labour as the SNP are not the Tories main opponents this time. It's all about the battle for 2nd place for them. Not sure I 100% understand this considering that the SNP are the main opponents to the Tories in places such as the Borders and Ayr, and will be looking for 1-2 regional list seats in each area (Labour will making up the majority of their seats via the list as you say). We may all be enjoying the schadenfreude of Labour collapsing but to think they'll be beaten to third is way off at this point in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The fate of Labour will be decided in the list vote. They won't win many, if any constituent seats going by a series of opinion polls showing the SNP way head. I still say you can't rule out the Tories coming 2nd no matter how unlikely that seems. Ruthie comes over well in debate and interview, albeit she talks a lot of crap. If Kezia doesn't have a good campaign then they could lose even more votes. And lets face it, she will now have to justify those election promises in a Labour manifesto and show they are properly costed. Not their strong point... It will be interesting to see the Tory tactics. Will it be another Better Together campaign or will the Tories attack Labour? Monumental blunder if they don't! In my opinion Ruthie has to all out attack Labour as the SNP are not the Tories main opponents this time. It's all about the battle for 2nd place for them. Nothing will be gained by slab or the conservatives attacking the SNP. The best bet is for them to target each other,even then i expect the polls to be static over the next few mths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glenconner Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nothing will be gained by slab or the conservatives attacking the SNP. The best bet is for them to target each other,even then i expect the polls to be static over the next few mths. Were you once a Celtic goalie? Politically your flapping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nothing will be gained by slab or the conservatives attacking the SNP. The best bet is for them to target each other,even then i expect the polls to be static over the next few mths. Completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevthedee Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Were you once a Celtic goalie? Politically your flapping all over the place. Dont think i am. I wont vote SNP but Its clear that the other parties attacking them just wont work so why waste their time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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