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Election night plans


Mr Rational

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This will become known as the recount election, I suspect.

Abu Dhabi is about three hours ahead of Edinburgh, so reckon I'll surface around 3 or 4am and stay tuned until we hear of the death of the UK and troops loyal to Her Maj mustering at Carlisle or somesuch shite.

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Been invited along to the Dundee count but think I'd rather stay at home and watch the drama unfold!

Understandable but some counts have a television lounge or viewing area to relieve the boredom. You may be able to watch online via wifi too. It would be worth checking if you are interested in going.

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I think my night alone with some beer, TV & P&B has been ruined.

It seems my sister wants to come along and watch it all unfold with me, as long as she doesn't expect to take my eyes and ears from the unfolding mayhem and talk to her!

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Election night guide: the vital signs to look out for as the counts roll in

SNP

While the other parties chart their progress in terms of marginals held or won, the SNP will measure theirs in terms of records broken and giants felled. The current swing from Labour to the SNP is larger than any recorded in an election in Scotland, or Britain as a whole – at 22 points, it is twice the swing Tony Blair achieved in the 1997 landslide. The first record – 11 seats in October 1974 – should fall around 2am-3am as Scottish constituencies start declaring in numbers. Then the big question becomes how the surge in support is distributed. Glenrothes and Rutherglen & Hamilton West declare about 2am – both seats have enormous Labour majorities, so wins in either will point to a huge landslide.

If Labour holds on in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, where Tom Greatrex has been working hard, it may hint at a personal vote enabling some Labour MPs to weather the storm. Headline moments will come in a flood about 3am. Labour’s great Glasgow fortresses declare then – each SNP win will be historic. Watch Glasgow North East and Glasgow South West, the two safest seats, where Labour traditionally wins two-thirds or more of the vote. At around the same time, Scottish Labour’s two most senior figures will learn their fate, as East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy) and Paisley & Renfrewshire South (Douglas Alexander) declare.

The SNP faces a different challenge in areas such as Edinburgh and the Borders – nationalist sentiment is weaker, but the unionist vote is divided. In seats such as Edinburgh South (4am) and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (4.30am) the SNP will hope a split vote will let it through the middle even on a weaker swing.

If 20-year-old politics student Mhairi Black defeats Alexander, it will be the “Portillo moment” of the night – the shadow foreign secretary will be the most senior leader to lose his seat since Patrick Gordon Walker, who held the same post for Labour, lost Smethwick in 1964.

Around the same time, the SNP will find out whether it has defeated the Lib Dems in their fortress of Orkney & Shetland, a seat that has returned Liberal MPs in every election but one since 1837. If the nationalists win there, only the hugely popular Charles Kennedy, whose Ross, Skye & Lochaber seat reports at 7am, will stand in the way of a total SNP victory.

Key numbers

Good (>40) Given expectations, the SNP hope to do at least this well.

OK (20-40) Still a huge advance but not as much as would have been hoped.

Bad (<20) Less than 20 would feel like a disaster given the buildup.

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I think my night alone with some beer, TV & P&B has been ruined.

It seems my sister wants to come along and watch it all unfold with me, as long as she doesn't expect to take my eyes and ears from the unfolding mayhem and talk to her!

^ gutted he can't flick between babestation and the results IMO :P

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