John Lambies Doos Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I'm a bit worried about how you will fare after the election and there's no more polls. I have this vision of you wandering up and down the High Street with a clipboard asking folk random political questions in order to get your fix. You may need to detox or go on a 10 stage plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 8, 2015 Author Share Posted April 8, 2015 http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/04/08/this-afternoons-batch-of-ashcroft-marginals-polling-has-the-battle-for-most-seats-on-knife-edge/ Ashcroft polls in England looking good for Labour. The national trends ignore the most important aspect of FPTP, namely that the election will be won or lost in marginals. As the recent New Statesman article pointed out, the SNP could do far better than the polls are predicting as the swings are far more pronounced in sLab heartlands than elsewhere. Equally these latest Ashcroft polls show Labour In England doing better in key marginals than the general trend suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I am sorry but as I don't believe that statement, I think I will request some proof. For the avoidance of doubt, the Cabinet Manual does not count as a constitutional authority. http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/ The previous government might remain in position whilst there is a period of negotiation to build a coalition, or they might decide to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.If the incumbent government is unable to command a majority and decides to resign, the leader of the largest opposition party may be invited to form a government and may do so either as a minority or in coalition with another party or parties. Clearly states that the incumbent government remains in place until it becomes clear they cannot command a majority of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/hung-parliament/ Clearly states that the incumbent government remains in place until it becomes clear they cannot command a majority of the house. Uh, huh. So the parliament website states that the incumbents might remain in post. Care to also enlighten us all to when this page was actually written (I will give you a clue - it was post 2010). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 https://twitter.com/yougov/status/586137464508719104 Yowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 https://twitter.com/yougov/status/586137464508719104 Yowzers. Good god that's sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 55 seats for the SNP is the edited highlights. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/09/numbers-are-clear-labour-narrowly-ahead/ The only significant trend the data has picked up since last week is a very slight softening of SNP support in constituencies in Scotland. A striking 3/5 of the seats in the SNP column are classified as 'too close to call'. Since April 4th we have moved 3 constituencies from 'leaning SNP' to 'too close to call', 4 constituencies from 'likely SNP' to 'leaning SNP' and a further 7 from 'SNP' to 'likely SNP'. However, the trend has so far only reduced their total by one seat - Dunfermline and West Fife - in which Labour is now seen as narrowly ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 55 seats for the SNP is the edited highlights. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/09/numbers-are-clear-labour-narrowly-ahead/ The only significant trend the data has picked up since last week is a very slight softening of SNP support in constituencies in Scotland. A striking 3/5 of the seats in the SNP column are classified as 'too close to call'. Since April 4th we have moved 3 constituencies from 'leaning SNP' to 'too close to call', 4 constituencies from 'likely SNP' to 'leaning SNP' and a further 7 from 'SNP' to 'likely SNP'. However, the trend has so far only reduced their total by one seat - Dunfermline and West Fife - in which Labour is now seen as narrowly ahead. I'm not surprised by that at all to be honest. I think we all know that 55 seats is fanciful when you break it down seat by seat. 30 is probably the bench mark, somewhere in the mid 40s is the ceiling IMO. Having this kind of prediction 4 weeks out is still an excellent result for the SNP when you consider some of the majorities, even with those qualifiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 I'm not surprised by that at all to be honest. I think we all know that 55 seats is fanciful when you break it down seat by seat. 30 is probably the bench mark, somewhere in the mid 40s is the ceiling IMO. Having this kind of prediction 4 weeks out is still an excellent result for the SNP when you consider some of the majorities, even with those qualifiers. That may be your opinion, which you are entitled to, but the polls suggest otherwise. In particular the detailed constituency polls. Uniform swings, which many predictions are based upon, are misleading. Ashcroft has shown that the biggest swing fro m Labour to SNP is in the Labour heartlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 That may be your opinion, which you are entitled to, but the polls suggest otherwise. In particular the detailed constituency polls. Uniform swings, which many predictions are based upon, are misleading. Ashcroft has shown that the biggest swing fro m Labour to SNP is in the Labour heartlands. Even with a bigger swing in the heartlands, which is what the SNP need to overcome massive majorities, there still may just be a few points between Labour and the SNP in those seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Anything less than 59 seats will be a disaster for the SNP now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Anything less than 59 seats will be a disaster for the SNP now. getting the practice in early ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Anything less than 59 seats will be a disaster for the SNP now. A great victory for Labour if they hold onto one seat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 A great victory for Labour if they hold onto one seat? Nicola Sturgeon would have some gall not to stand down if the SNP can't even win every seat IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Anything less than 59 seats will be a disaster for the SNP now. 30 seats + will do for me... (election won)anything else will be a bonus. For the record I couldn't give a flying feck who becomes PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I predicted 34, but perhaps I was being small c conservative. I would say that 40 is par for the course right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I predicted 34, but perhaps I was being small c conservative. I would say that 40 is par for the course right now. Ill take a bit of that Mr Bairn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Anything less than 59 seats will be a disaster for the SNP now. The SNP will not have less than 59 seats IMO......not when you add on the ones that they will be controlling through Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 I predicted 34, but perhaps I was being small c conservative. I would say that 40 is par for the course right now. Would honestly be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Would honestly be happy with that. Oh how the entitled have fallen. Edinburgh Zoo is going to be over-run with unemployed monkeys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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