Polls and predictions

[John Lambies Doos]

Similarly to 1992 though I do wonder if the polling is influenced by Scottish voters who are too embarrassed to say that they plan to vote Labour in this election.

On a slightly different topic, I live in a constituency that going by most predictions will be a tight battleground between Labour and SNP and to date we've had one leaflet from Labour and no contact at all from anyone else. Quite surprised that there isn't more of a push from both sides.

Which constituency adam?

[Kyle]

Similarly to 1992 though I do wonder if the polling is influenced by Scottish voters who are too embarrassed to say that they plan to vote Labour in this election.

On a slightly different topic, I live in a constituency that going by most predictions will be a tight battleground between Labour and SNP and to date we've had one leaflet from Labour and no contact at all from anyone else. Quite surprised that there isn't more of a push from both sides.

That might be the case with canvassing, but would that happen in anonymous polls, the likes of Yougov etc, where labour are showing at about 25%?

I think labour will likely increase their vote share from where it is now, however.

I'm in a seat where SNP are fairly strong favourites to win with the bookies. I've received 4 or 5 labour leaflets, one from the Tories (Simon Bone... tee hee) and absolutely zilch from the SNP.

[Adamski]

Which constituency adam?

Glasgow Central.

[John Lambies Doos]

Glasgow Central.

Its going SNP. Trust me.

[Pars fan 14]

Glasgow Central.

Same here, I've had 2 leaflets from Labour and nothing else

[Adamski]

That might be the case with canvassing, but would that happen in anonymous polls, the likes of Yougov etc, where labour are showing at about 25%?

I've read various things suggesting that even in anonymous polls some people will shy away from saying that they'll vote for a particular party. Not sure how significant it will be in terms of Labour's share in this election though.

[Adamski]

Its going SNP. Trust me.

The bookies still have it as pretty close: SNP 8/15, Labour 13/8.

[John Lambies Doos]

I've read various things suggesting that even in anonymous polls some people will shy away from saying that they'll vote for a particular party. Not sure how significant it will be in terms of Labour's share in this election though.

The polls were pretty spot on for referendum, it would be more embarrassing telling them you were voting No imo.

[Kyle]

The bookies still have it as pretty close: SNP 8/15, Labour 13/8.

SNP pretty much 1/2 on. If you looked at those odds in terms of a football match, you'd think the SNP were clear favourites to win the match.

I guess we'll see soon enough - I know of a few people who live near me who are voting SNP to get Sarwar out!

[Adamski]

SNP pretty much 1/2 on. If you looked at those odds in terms of a football match, you'd think the SNP were clear favourites to win the match.

I guess we'll see soon enough - I know of a few people who live near me who are voting SNP to get Sarwar out!

I'd have been voting SNP anyway, but the prospect of booting Sarwar out is a lovely added bonus.

[welshbairn]

You only get 5/1 on SNP to win every Scottish seat. To put that in perspective you get 33/1 on a Labour/Tory coalition.

P.S. SNP are 1/5 on to give Heelind Danny the boot.

[glasgow-sheep]

Same here, I've had 2 leaflets from Labour and nothing else

In Glasgow South and had three labour leaflets, all via the Royal Mail I think and nothing else. SNP office up the road but no sign of leaflets or canvassing around me

[Nitshill]

Similarly to 1992 though I do wonder if the polling is influenced by Scottish voters who are too embarrassed to say that they plan to vote Labour in this election.

On a slightly different topic, I live in a constituency that going by most predictions will be a tight battleground between Labour and SNP and to date we've had one leaflet from Labour and no contact at all from anyone else. Quite surprised that there isn't more of a push from both sides.

I'm in East Renfrewshire, Jim Murphy's haunt. SNP have been the most active so far with leaflets and doorstepping. Labour stuff arrives in the post. One Tory leaflet only, which was an extraordinary piece of work that you had search hard to find the word Conservative anywhere on it.

SNP for the win, despite the odds.

[Elixir]

You only get 5/1 on SNP to win every Scottish seat. To put that in perspective you get 33/1 on a Labour/Tory coalition.

With Ladbrokes, the SNP are 1/16 to win the most Scottish seats.

Just let that sink in.

P.S. SNP are 1/5 on to give Heelind Danny the boot.

I take it that's with William Hill?

Again, Ladbrokes have the SNP at 1/8 in his seat. He's history.

[vikingTON]

I like my polling stats, but here's a question for the real election stattos...

At the moment the SNP are miles ahead of Labour in the polls - 28% ahead in the most recent poll. There are 22 days before the election. Can anyone suggest what is the biggest shift in polls (Westminster or Holyrood) from this stage before an election to the actual result?

I'm guessing that the Holyrood 2011 switch from Labour to SNP might be up there, although that might have happened earlier in the campaign.

Basically I'm wondering what these stats would say the worst case scenario is for the SNP at this stage might be. If Labour can claw anything back, or if the polls have got it spectacularly wrong, then what's an estimate for the maximum amount of damage?

(I'm firmly in the camp of thinking that the SNP won't reach the heights that some reports are predicting, but that's admittedly tainted by the experience of the referendum, and probably also my experience of other external factors that I can't control and have a tendancy to disappoint like watching Queens and Scotland.)

http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/10/forecast-update-10-april-2015/#more-993

As per the above forecast by Fisher (before the 52% lolocaust in the recent TNS poll) and a solid six months of monstrous SNP leads, the SNP's lowest likely mark in the election is now 42%. Labour's likely maximum is ten points behind, which under FPTP (not to mention the disproportionate swings found in safe Labour v SNP marginals) makes huge SNP gains a near certainty. There'd really have to be an entirely unprecedented event in the campaign to prevent an SNP landslide in three weeks' time. Given that the Britnats have already exhausted much of their stock in the independence referendum I'd suggest that there are none to come, unless Sturgeon has an unprecedented mare.

In terms of seats the same projection puts the SNP on 49, in a larger realistic set between 38 and 55 in the country. There remains however the distinct possibility that any poll that uses 2010 voting intention in Scotland is actually understating SNP support, especially if it weighs current don't knows in surveys towards the anomalously high Labour figure then, that didn't hold up in 2011 and was most vulnerable to the Yes campaign during the referendum.

I'd currently expect the SNP to not even remotely slip beneath 45% in three weeks' time barring a major game-changing event, which should lead to a huge, near total if the larger swing in safe seats emerges, landslide of Labour seats and the obviously finished Lib Dems; probably around 50 seats.

I would no longer be surprised to see the SNP actually gaining over 50% of the vote. This imminent landslide is closest to the staggering haul in 2011, when few entirely believed the polls and returns until a majority was secured.

[Elixir]

Some utterly disastrous polling for the Lib Dems:

Lib Dem vote set to collapse in south-west 'heartland', ComRes/ITV News poll suggests

[LongTimeLurker]

Like parts of rural Scotland that's an area where they traditionally were the main rival of the Tories and relied on tactical votes from people who would vote Labour if they lived elsewhere.

[Elixir]

The Lib Dem diddies have "leaked" internal polling showing Jo Swinson apparently 2.4% ahead of the SNP in East Dumbartonshire, with both Labour and the Tories well behind.

Plain and simply it's an absolute scramble for tactical votes. The methodology used is laughable and even the fabricated result is within the margin of error.

Still, at least the #SNPout weirdos are lapping it up. I wonder if they'll be delighted if the SNP "only" win 30-40 seats because at least they won't have won every one?

[Fide]

The Lib Dem diddies have "leaked" internal polling showing Jo Swinson apparently 2.4% ahead of the SNP in East Dumbartonshire, with both Labour and the Tories well behind.

Plain and simply it's an absolute scramble for tactical votes. The methodology used is laughable and even the fabricated result is within the margin of error.

Still, at least the #SNPout weirdos are lapping it up. I wonder if they'll be delighted if the SNP "only" win 30-40 seats because at least they won't have won every one?

What an utterly desperate, yet at the same time, sneakily clever tactic.

Tactical voters should be publically birched.

[John Lambies Doos]

The Lib Dem diddies have "leaked" internal polling showing Jo Swinson apparently 2.4% ahead of the SNP in East Dumbartonshire, with both Labour and the Tories well behind.

Plain and simply it's an absolute scramble for tactical votes. The methodology used is laughable and even the fabricated result is within the margin of error.

Still, at least the #SNPout weirdos are lapping it up. I wonder if they'll be delighted if the SNP "only" win 30-40 seats because at least they won't have won every one?

Jo Swinson wont win. U can bookmark this.