Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Granny Danger

Polls and predictions

Recommended Posts

Kind of wishing I had applied for a postal vote so I could prove it to you guys. End of last year my (now) ex and one of my best mates kinda talked me round the inevitability of independence. I'm open about the fact it's not my first choice (federalism is) but my viewpoint is that it's better to accept the inevitability and think ahead to how I personally would like an independent Scotlland to function than to sit in the corner and throw faeces at the wall when it's fairly obvious that Scotland will be independent in the next 10 years or so.

Ok, I'm still not sure one way or the other, but you seem like a nice sort anyway.

If there is another referendum in the future, does that mean that you will vote yes?

The reason I ask is I can't fathom how you can go from calling the SNP vile a matter of months ago, to being quite delighted at their success now. It sounds like you've had a reasonable debate with people in your life and you're more open to the idea of Scotland being Independent - that computes in my head, just struggling with the SNP support line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know there's a huge number of threads on here already, but with four and a half weeks to go I thought it would be useful to have a thread dedicated to the polls and predictions emanating from them.

Please don't use this thread for general discussion, there are plenty threads already for this.

I will start with these links to sites that concentrate on polls and projections.

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like my polling stats, but here's a question for the real election stattos...

At the moment the SNP are miles ahead of Labour in the polls - 28% ahead in the most recent poll. There are 22 days before the election. Can anyone suggest what is the biggest shift in polls (Westminster or Holyrood) from this stage before an election to the actual result?

I'm guessing that the Holyrood 2011 switch from Labour to SNP might be up there, although that might have happened earlier in the campaign.

Basically I'm wondering what these stats would say the worst case scenario is for the SNP at this stage might be. If Labour can claw anything back, or if the polls have got it spectacularly wrong, then what's an estimate for the maximum amount of damage?

(I'm firmly in the camp of thinking that the SNP won't reach the heights that some reports are predicting, but that's admittedly tainted by the experience of the referendum, and probably also my experience of other external factors that I can't control and have a tendancy to disappoint like watching Queens and Scotland.)

Edited by Adamski

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like my polling stats, but here's a question for the real election stattos...

At the moment the SNP are miles ahead of Labour in the polls - 28% ahead in the most recent poll. There are 22 days before the election. Can anyone suggest what is the biggest shift in polls (Westminster or Holyrood) from this stage before an election to the actual result?

I'm guessing that the Holyrood 2011 switch from Labour to SNP might be up there, although that might have happened earlier in the campaign.

Basically I'm wondering what these stats would say the worst case scenario is for the SNP at this stage might be. If Labour can claw anything back, or if the polls have got it spectacularly wrong, then what's an estimate for the maximum amount of damage?

(I'm firmly in the camp of thinking that the SNP won't reach the heights that some reports are predicting, but that's admittedly tainted by the experience of the referendum, and probably also my experience of other external factors that I can't control and have a tendancy to disappoint like watching Queens and Scotland.)

The bookies called the referendum about right, and they're saying it's odds on that SNP will get over 43 seats. The polls have been so consistent I can't see them getting less than 40 but I doubt it will be over 50. A lot of voters will stick with the incumbent that they know and like rather than thinking party.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bookies called the referendum about right, and they're saying it's odds on that SNP will get over 43 seats. The polls have been so consistent I can't see them getting less than 40 but I doubt it will be over 50. A lot of voters will stick with the incumbent that they know and like rather than thinking party.

Predictions of 50+ seats have been getting banded about quite frequently in the press. 43 is a lot more realistic in my opinion. The amount of seats in which the bookies have the SNP as favourites has been pretty static on 41 for at least a month or so now. I'd still be moderately (pleasantly) surprised with anything over mid 30s though, but there's a fair slice of pessimism going into that prediction rather than anything particularly statistically viable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, I'm still not sure one way or the other, but you seem like a nice sort anyway.

If there is another referendum in the future, does that mean that you will vote yes?

The reason I ask is I can't fathom how you can go from calling the SNP vile a matter of months ago, to being quite delighted at their success now. It sounds like you've had a reasonable debate with people in your life and you're more open to the idea of Scotland being Independent - that computes in my head, just struggling with the SNP support line.

I would have to cross that path at the time of the vote. My head says Yes but my heart says No.

I dont love the SNP by any means. There are a handful of SNP MSPs/candidates that I could never vote for on a personal level. Kenny McAskill is the one that I have identified as holding personal contempt for. Having said that they have done a good job running our parliament for the last eight years, Nicola Sturgeon is an excellent choice for first minister and generally speaking I think the SNP intended MPs are mostly far better at representing their constituents than the alternative options.

If there was more of a Socially Democratic UK wide party that was committed to federalism then I would happily drop the SNP. For example if Ed gets the keys to number 10 without SNP support and he does better than expected in his first term then I won't rule out going back to Labour in 2020. Heck I would not rule out voting for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, but for now it's going to be the SNP and this time next year I will revisit it for the Holyrood campaign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like my polling stats, but here's a question for the real election stattos...

At the moment the SNP are miles ahead of Labour in the polls - 28% ahead in the most recent poll. There are 22 days before the election. Can anyone suggest what is the biggest shift in polls (Westminster or Holyrood) from this stage before an election to the actual result?

I'm guessing that the Holyrood 2011 switch from Labour to SNP might be up there, although that might have happened earlier in the campaign.

Basically I'm wondering what these stats would say the worst case scenario is for the SNP at this stage might be. If Labour can claw anything back, or if the polls have got it spectacularly wrong, then what's an estimate for the maximum amount of damage?

(I'm firmly in the camp of thinking that the SNP won't reach the heights that some reports are predicting, but that's admittedly tainted by the experience of the referendum, and probably also my experience of other external factors that I can't

control and have a tendancy to disappoint like watching Queens and Scotland.)

The biggest gap was by TNS and was 15% (44 Labour, 29 SNP), 2 March 2011. This was more than months before the election.

The Mail on Sunday poll on 13 March 2011 already had this down to 6%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The biggest gap was by TNS and was 15% (44 Labour, 29 SNP), 2 March 2011. This was more than months before the election.

The Mail on Sunday poll on 13 March 2011 already had this down to 6%

By the same point as we are today the SNP were three points ahead in the run up to 2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would have to cross that path at the time of the vote. My head says Yes but my heart says No.

I dont love the SNP by any means. There are a handful of SNP MSPs/candidates that I could never vote for on a personal level. Kenny McAskill is the one that I have identified as holding personal contempt for. Having said that they have done a good job running our parliament for the last eight years, Nicola Sturgeon is an excellent choice for first minister and generally speaking I think the SNP intended MPs are mostly far better at representing their constituents than the alternative options.

If there was more of a Socially Democratic UK wide party that was committed to federalism then I would happily drop the SNP. For example if Ed gets the keys to number 10 without SNP support and he does better than expected in his first term then I won't rule out going back to Labour in 2020. Heck I would not rule out voting for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson, but for now it's going to be the SNP and this time next year I will revisit it for the Holyrood campaign.

You wouldn't rule out voting Tory under Boris Johnson? Wow. Another Scotland hater, though given your comments perhaps you'd make good bedfellows.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You wouldn't rule out voting Tory under Boris Johnson? Wow. Another Scotland hater, though given your comments perhaps you'd make good bedfellows.

A friend said to be that BJ is a man of the people. He seems a popular and gaffe prone London mayor. Quite lovable in fact.

I dont see how liking him makes me a Scotland hater

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A friend said to be that BJ is a man of the people. He seems a popular and gaffe prone London mayor. Quite lovable in fact.

I dont see how liking him makes me a Scotland hater

A friend said that? I think you should make your own mind up and BoJo is very far from a man of the people, unless the people are hedge fund manager and non-doms.

Nothing lovable about him, cold, very right-wing sociopath. Lovable rogue stuff is an act.

I never said you were a Scotland hater I said he is, along with many others. Google his comments about a pound spent in Croydon and wanting Scottish water for proof.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting. Thanks Mr Bairn.

I think you're the first person I've come across who voted no with their heart and not their head. I've heard the reverse of that many times previously.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting. Thanks Mr Bairn. I think you're the first person I've come across who voted no with their heart and not their head. I've heard the reverse of that many times previously.

If your heart says no that makes you...whisper it.....a British nationalist. There's no getting away from it, if its your heart that's an emotional attachment to the union, which makes you a Britnat.

I am not even having a go at Britnats here even though I find their beliefs abhorrent, just stating fact. Mr Bairn I think I have been a bit too hard on think his intentions are okay just don't think his beliefs are fully formulated yet, but what I've said there is undeniably true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing lovable about him, cold, very right-wing sociopath. Lovable rogue stuff is an act.

Very much this. Don't be taken in by Boris' chummy toff act.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A friend said that? I think you should make your own mind up and BoJo is very far from a man of the people, unless the people are hedge fund manager and non-doms.

Nothing lovable about him, cold, very right-wing sociopath. Lovable rogue stuff is an act.

I never said you were a Scotland hater I said he is, along with many others. Google his comments about a pound spent in Croydon and wanting Scottish water for proof.

Cant stand Boris Johnson, but Mr Bairn is alright.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The biggest gap was by TNS and was 15% (44 Labour, 29 SNP), 2 March 2011. This was more than months before the election.

The Mail on Sunday poll on 13 March 2011 already had this down to 6%

By the same point as we are today the SNP were three points ahead in the run up to 2011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

Thanks for both of these. So a 3% lead which translated into the largest number of votes by 14%. Also from a quick look at the 1992 general election we had Labour and Tories neck and neck pretty much up to the end in the polls, with the Tories finishing 8 percentage points ahead of Labour. Both of these results come with backstories to some degree - shy Tories in 1992, and possibly voters being turned off Labour the more as Ian Gray's exposure increased in 2011, but either way Labour making any inroads into the SNP's lead at this stage would be on a different scale to either of these.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for both of these. So a 3% lead which translated into the largest number of votes by 14%. Also from a quick look at the 1992 general election we had Labour and Tories neck and neck pretty much up to the end in the polls, with the Tories finishing 8 percentage points ahead of Labour. Both of these results come with backstories to some degree - shy Tories in 1992, and possibly voters being turned off Labour the more as Ian Gray's exposure increased in 2011, but either way Labour making any inroads into the SNP's lead at this stage would be on a different scale to either of these.

Exactly. The other thing to note is that on both occasions the late movement went in favour of the incumbents. Torys in 92. SNP in 2011. Difficult to say who the incumbents are here ie its a general election - mostly labour seats, but we have a very popular Strong SNP Gov in place.

Momentum on the streets is definitely with the SNP from what I see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very much this. Don't be taken in by Boris' chummy toff act.

The sad thing is people will be. Ordinary people; probably shallow people who don't really take an interest in politics; vulnerable people. The sort of people that Johnson will treat as shit on his shoe.

He would be as bad as Thatcher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But also be aware that any drift to Labour will be magnified by the FPTP system; in other words, even a drop of a few per cent in the SNP vote could multiply Labour seats.

It's a measure of the SNP's rise, however than six months or so ago, pundits were saying how difficult it would be to get more than 11 MPs given Labour's entrenched position. Now that result would be seen as a disaster.

Edited by Mr Heliums

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Similarly to 1992 though I do wonder if the polling is influenced by Scottish voters who are too embarrassed to say that they plan to vote Labour in this election.

On a slightly different topic, I live in a constituency that going by most predictions will be a tight battleground between Labour and SNP and to date we've had one leaflet from Labour and no contact at all from anyone else. Quite surprised that there isn't more of a push from both sides.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...