Anonapersona Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 According to the electoralcalculus site, my home constituency of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is likely to vote SNP. Am I reading this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 According to the electoralcalculus site, my home constituency of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is likely to vote SNP. Am I reading this correctly? It really depends on how many Lib Dem fluffers desert them for the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 According to the electoralcalculus site, my home constituency of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is likely to vote SNP. Am I reading this correctly? The folks on UK pollingreport have it as a Con/Lib marginal but with the SNP very close behind. From what I can gather the lib dems have pretty much given up on 8 of their 11 seats, they know they'll hold Orkney & Shetlands, so their remaining resources are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at holding on to Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) and this seat (Michael Moore) The 2010 result was LD 45% CON 34% LAB 10% SNP 9% In theory the Tories could gain this seat without increasing their vote percentage, if the LD collapse if big enough but the SNP don't pick up quite enough to go over 1/3 of the vote. What's working against the SNP is that they're not only up against the incumbent Lib Dem MP, but the Conservative candidate John Lamont is the MSP for the area. Lamont won the seat in 2011 by some 5,000 votes over the SNP, but the SNP topped the regional list vote in the constituency. This suggests that Lamont was elected on a personal vote. If you held a gun to my head I think the Tories will gain this with the SNP a close second a Moore a distant third, but some people that understand the area better than me have said the the Liberal Democrats will hold the seat with quite a big majority and uniform swings point to an SNP gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. I'm offended by this assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. How dare they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. The SNP are some party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anonapersona Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The folks on UK pollingreport have it as a Con/Lib marginal but with the SNP very close behind. From what I can gather the lib dems have pretty much given up on 8 of their 11 seats, they know they'll hold Orkney & Shetlands, so their remaining resources are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at holding on to Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) and this seat (Michael Moore) The 2010 result was LD 45% CON 34% LAB 10% SNP 9% In theory the Tories could gain this seat without increasing their vote percentage, if the LD collapse if big enough but the SNP don't pick up quite enough to go over 1/3 of the vote. What's working against the SNP is that they're not only up against the incumbent Lib Dem MP, but the Conservative candidate John Lamont is the MSP for the area. Lamont won the seat in 2011 by some 5,000 votes over the SNP, but the SNP topped the regional list vote in the constituency. This suggests that Lamont was elected on a personal vote. If you held a gun to my head I think the Tories will gain this with the SNP a close second a Moore a distant third, but some people that understand the area better than me have said the the Liberal Democrats will hold the seat with quite a big majority and uniform swings point to an SNP gain. A lot of people I know always voted Liberal because it was the only way to keep the Tories out. I don't see many Tory voters changing their pattern but maybe enough Liberal and Labor voters will tip the balance to the SNP. My god, I'm getting intoxicated just thinking about how drunk I'll get if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 The folks on UK pollingreport have it as a Con/Lib marginal but with the SNP very close behind. From what I can gather the lib dems have pretty much given up on 8 of their 11 seats, they know they'll hold Orkney & Shetlands, so their remaining resources are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at holding on to Ross, Skye & Lochaber (Charles Kennedy) and this seat (Michael Moore) The 2010 result was LD 45% CON 34% LAB 10% SNP 9% In theory the Tories could gain this seat without increasing their vote percentage, if the LD collapse if big enough but the SNP don't pick up quite enough to go over 1/3 of the vote. What's working against the SNP is that they're not only up against the incumbent Lib Dem MP, but the Conservative candidate John Lamont is the MSP for the area. Lamont won the seat in 2011 by some 5,000 votes over the SNP, but the SNP topped the regional list vote in the constituency. This suggests that Lamont was elected on a personal vote. If you held a gun to my head I think the Tories will gain this with the SNP a close second a Moore a distant third, but some people that understand the area better than me have said the the Liberal Democrats will hold the seat with quite a big majority and uniform swings point to an SNP gain. According to Ashcroft's polls, the SNP have a 4% lead in Dumfries and Galloway and are tied in Mundell's seat. Considering neither of those have anywhere near as big a Lib Dem pool as Moore's from which to take vote from I'd say it must be neck and neck at the very least. Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. We are all SNP. #SNPfamily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Some Ashcroft polls due tomorrow at 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 13, 2015 Author Share Posted April 13, 2015 Apparently the British election survey has found that 52% of SNP supporters take criticism of their party as a personal insult. The other 48% aren't taking it seriously enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 There was an ICM poll out today giving the torys a 6 point lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 There was an ICM poll out today giving the torys a 6 point lead. YouGov for the Sun has Labour one point up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Unison phoned up my mum to talk to her about the election. The guy was from Newcastle and asked who she was voting for. She replied "I'm Scottish, who do you think I'm voting for". He knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sloop John B Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I'm worried about John Lambies Doos after the election. Where is his he going to get his dosage of Quantitive data from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I'm worried about John Lambies Doos after the election. Where is his he going to get his dosage of Quantitive data from? He'll need to wait a few months until the Holyrood polls start appearing. I think I'll miss his excitement Can I suggest some sort of 12 step programme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 5 live are trying to spin Argyll & Bute as a four way marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Unison phoned up my mum to talk to her about the election. The guy was from Newcastle and asked who she was voting for. She replied "I'm Scottish, who do you think I'm voting for". He knew. I fucking love your mum! And have for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Some Ashcroft polls due tomorrow at 8am Another series of Lab-Con marginals rather than anything Scottish: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/more-conservative-labour-marginals/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 There was an ICM poll out today giving the torys a 6 point lead. MoE outlier. If you look a tthe sample breakdown by age, the younger 18-25 group that usually breaks 49/20 Lab was, in this poll, breaking 48/21 Tory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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