DC92 Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Easily the weirdest seat in the YouGov nowcast is the Western Isles with the upper band on the SNP vote actually being less than they got in 2010 and it only being rated as 'likely' SNP despite it being theoretically their safest seat. I suppose the samples must be tiny given how small it is so you can take it with a pinch of salt. Even so, given it's likely to be the first to declare, imagine there was almost no swing to the SNP/a tiny swing to Labour in that seat to get the #SNPOuters excited before it's followed by 40-odd SNP gains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Easily the weirdest seat in the YouGov nowcast is the Western Isles with the upper band on the SNP vote actually being less than they got in 2010 and it only being rated as 'likely' SNP despite it being theoretically their safest seat. I suppose the samples must be tiny given how small it is so you can take it with a pinch of salt. Even so, given it's likely to be the first to declare, imagine there was almost no swing to the SNP/a tiny swing to Labour in that seat to get the #SNPOuters excited before it's followed by 40-odd SNP gains. I want to say that it will be a safe one for the SNP but, like I've said previously, after the referendum I'm preparing for the nightmare scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 I looked at the YouGov nowcast. The Tories are currently at 29.2% in East Renfrewshire, 9.1% behind Labour. Don't know what the gap was before the SNP 49% poll came out though. YouGov don't poll individual seats, and their per-poll sample counts (circa 2000 respondees across 650 seats) would make extrapolation of individual seat numbers meaningless. Their per-seat polls are nothing more than uniform swing applications from whatever the old result was, likely 2010. If the Tories are anywhere near 30% at present in East Renfrewshire then Murphy is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Does that mean SNP are ahead then. Ad lib can only be on about 2% Is Ad Lib standing in Murphy's constituency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Is Ad Lib standing in Murphy's constituency? Yes. Ad lib, perhaps you could give an idea re. Returns on doors etc. Who u think may be doing well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Yes. Ad lib, perhaps you could give an idea re. Returns on doors etc. Who u think may be doing well? Just checked his odds 100/1. Even an Alexandra Burke to Peterhead campaign couldn't get him elected here. Still, good for him for standing as a candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Still, good for him for standing as a candidate. Defo. Fair play to him. Will get completely horsed tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 @May2015NS: New Scotland poll (TNS)SNP52 (+6)LAB24 (-6)CON13 (-1)LDEM6 (+3)SNP higher than long running average (46 SNP/27 Lab) for second time in a row.Project smear/fear is clearly working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 @May2015NS: New Scotland poll (TNS) SNP52 (+6) LAB24 (-6) CON13 (-1) LDEM6 (+3) SNP higher than long running average (46 SNP/27 Lab) for second time in a row. Project smear/fear is clearly working. tns.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk/press-release/snp-increases-its-lead-in-latest-tns-poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Bare in mind with TNS, the fieldwork takes a long time and was conducted over 18th MAR to 08th APR. In that respect it's not up to date, although it could conceivably be used as simple confirmation that the 'surge' seen in YG last week was real enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 @May2015NS: New Scotland poll (TNS) SNP52 (+6) LAB24 (-6) CON13 (-1) LDEM6 (+3) SNP higher than long running average (46 SNP/27 Lab) for second time in a row. Project smear/fear is clearly working. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha and breathe ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Don't think it needs to be explained that even the tactical voting strategy that has been talked up of late doesn't do the Westminster parties much good when the numbers are SNP 52 and LabLibCon 43 and there are a lot of diehards for each party that will never buy into it. Personally in an ideal world I would never support outright independence and would greatly prefer Devomax or something close to it (where Scotland is a sovereign entity but chooses to retain a federal type of union) and was highly annoyed at the SNP for agreeing to a straight two way question, but everything that has happened since the 52:48 Yougov poll sent Westminster into panic mode has shown that there's absolutely no way that the UK elite and their careerist puppets like Jim Murphy will ever be able to shift their mindsets to a point where that could actually work. If there is a significant chunk of the electorate that sees things like I do then there is genuine scope for the SNP to move north of 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 OMG :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Jim Murphy right now Perhaps this is what they mean when they talk of the Murphy bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Don't think it needs to be explained that even the tactical voting strategy that has been talked up of late doesn't do the Westminster parties much good when the numbers are SNP 52 and LabLibCon 43 and there are a lot of diehards for each party that will never buy into it. Personally in an ideal world I would never support outright independence and would greatly prefer Devomax or something close to it (where Scotland is a sovereign entity but chooses to retain a federal type of union) and was highly annoyed at the SNP for agreeing to a straight two way question, but everything that has happened since the 52:48 Yougov poll sent Westminster into panic mode has shown that there's absolutely no way that the UK elite and their careerist puppets like Jim Murphy will ever be able to shift their mindsets to a point where that could actually work. If there is a significant chunk of the electorate that sees things like I do then there is genuine scope for the SNP to move north of 50%. Surely these tactical voting muppets are just going to turn people away from the Westminster parties? If there really is so little between them that they'd come together to keep out an SNP MP - ie a party that can't even form a government at Westminster - then why should we bother about any of them? Bloody stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Surely these tactical voting muppets are just going to turn people away from the Westminster parties? If there really is so little between them that they'd come together to keep out an SNP MP - ie a party that can't even form a government at Westminster - then why should we bother about any of them? Bloody stupid. The basic problem with anti SNP tactical voting is that one of Yes' strongest lines of attack during the referendum was 'Westminster: They are all the same'. It doesn't help then, when activists of three parties come together to campaign for each other. Nor can it help when the cry of 'Country before party' goes up, but they still proclaim to NOT be nationalists..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Fifty-two percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Surely, surely someone at the North British Labour Branch must be realising "hang on a minute, our tactics of 'blatantly lie whilst shouting over everyone isn't working". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Surely, surely someone at the North British Labour Branch must be realising "hang on a minute, our tactics of 'blatantly lie whilst shouting over everyone isn't working". It's the equivalent of an oil tanker trying to change direction, it takes time. In Labours case probably more time than they have available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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