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Polls and predictions


Granny Danger

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One debate. I received it before yesterday's debate.

Yeah, but there hasn't been a full Scotland poll since before the first debate so this will take into account changes during the time since.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland

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Tbh if that's true I think it's likely an anomaly. Too much of a difference too quickly.

I would imagine it's the product of a small Labour bounce combined with a poll that's at the very outskirts of the margin of error.

For a sample of 1800 the margin of error is around 2.5%, so if you imagine that this poll was being very favourable to Labour, you revise the figures to SNP 42.5%, Labour 34.5%, then compare that to previous polls and you'd be looking at a 2.5% swing to Labour from the SNP and also a small swing from smaller parties to Labour. Not unfeasible.

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I think polling figures tend to be released under strict confidence to certain people before they are publically released.

I've certainly heard polling figures a few hours before they are publically released in the past.

Foulkes in particular has been tweeting and retweeting solidly about polls for the last hour or two. It is no co incidence IMO.

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I think polling figures tend to be released under strict confidence to certain people before they are publically released.

I've certainly heard polling figures a few hours before they are publically released in the past.

Foulkes in particular has been tweeting and retweeting solidly about polls for the last hour or two. It is no co incidence IMO.

In fairness, labour's poll results today have been very good. It might just be in relation to that.

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In fairness, labour's poll results today have been very good. It might just be in relation to that.

Yougov did a sample across uk to see who would vote SNP, uk wide 11%, Scottish sample had snp on 42 and lab 24 with torys polling 21. Again it was a small sample, and the survation 7+8 uk scottish sample had snp on 51. I would be surprised if this poll is accurate. Info above is on scot goes pop site

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In fairness, labour's poll results today have been very good. It might just be in relation to that.

Nah the Labour machine is in full swing. Labour is great, Labour is good. It's like a red tsunami

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