Mr Bairn Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 If a list MSP dies there is no by-election, they just get replaced by the next person on the list from 2011 (Or the person after that, if the rightful successor has moved on for whatever reason) If they reach the bottom of the list and no one takes it then they just leave it vacant (like what happened with Margo McDonald as an independent) For a constituency MSP there would be a by-election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 I hope they lose every single seat in Scotland. It would be the most poetic piece of politics ever. FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Anti-Tory 'alliance' of Labour, SNP, PC and Greens with tacit support of SDLP. Why only tacit for the SDLP? That's the easiest one for Labour, because they are sister parties and Labour actively advocates a vote for the SDLP in an NI context, which shows what a farce their sudden concern about the Union is in a Scottish context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Guardian are releasing a poll for Sheffield Hallam later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Aberdeen North – SNP gain from Labour Aberdeen South – SNP gain from Labour Airdrie and Shotts – SNP gain from Labour Angus – SNP hold Argyll and Bute – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – SNP gain from Labour Banff and Buchan – SNP hold Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Central Ayrshire – SNP gain from Labour Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – Labour hold Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – SNP gain from Labour Dumfries and Galloway – SNP gain from Labour Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – SNP gain from Conservatives Dundee East – SNP hold Dundee West – SNP gain from Labour Dunfermline and West Fife – Labour hold East Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow – SNP gain from Labour East Lothian – Labour hold East Renfrewshire – Labour hold Edinburgh East – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh South – Labour hold Edinburgh South West – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh West – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow Central – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow East – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North East – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North West – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South West – SNP gain from Labour Glenrothes – SNP gain from Labour Gordon – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Inverclyde – SNP gain from Labour Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Kilmarnock and Loudoun – SNP gain from Labour Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – SNP gain from Labour Lanark and Hamilton East – SNP gain from Labour Linlithgow and East Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour Livingston – SNP gain from Labour Midlothian – SNP gain from Labour Moray – SNP hold Motherwell and Wishaw – SNP gain from Labour Na h-Eileanan an Iar – SNP hold North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP gain from Labour North East Fife – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Ochil and South Perthshire – SNP gain from Labour Orkney and Shetland – Liberal Democrat hold Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP gain from Labour Paisley and Renfrewshire South – SNP gain from Labour Perth and North Perthshire – SNP hold Ross, Skye and Lochaber – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Rutherglen and Hamilton West – Labour hold Stirling – SNP gain from Labour West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats West Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Labour SNP: 51, Labour: 6, Conservatives: 1, Liberal Democrats: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Think I'd agree with the majority of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Looks about right to me as well, would swap Glasgow NE for Coatbridge & Chryston for Labour and ditch Dunfermline & West Fife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I have Coatbridge going SNP and Glasgow NE and NW staying Red from that, still got 32 seats to run through but my gut feeling is that it's going to be absolute landslide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Got some third-hand info from the Lib Dem camp in the Highlands - they expect Danny Alexander to be no more than 2000 votes behind his opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Got some third-hand info from the Lib Dem camp in the Highlands - they expect Danny Alexander to be no more than 2000 votes behind his opponent. Every party overestimates their support before an election. Not only do I expect an SNP gain here, but they might win it more emphatically than the 8700 majority Alexander enjoyed in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Every party overestimates their support before an election. Not only do I expect an SNP gain here, but they might win it more emphatically than the 8700 majority Alexander enjoyed in 2010 Not a chance of a majority that big imo. Same for Kennedy - if he loses it will be by no more than 3000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 Got some third-hand info from the Lib Dem camp in the Highlands - they expect Danny Alexander to be no more than 2000 votes behind his opponent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Got some third-hand info from the Lib Dem camp in the Highlands - they expect Danny Alexander to be no more than 2000 votes behind his opponent. Is it a forecast based on canvass returns or polling? The Lib Dems use a warm-up question, asking for respondent's opinion of their MP, in their polls. This is not used by polling companies as it tends to bias responses in favour of the incumbent. Canvass returns are always suspect as lots of voters lie to callers to avoid conversations or confrontations on the door step. Even if they are right, Danny Alexander will be be kicked out on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Is it a forecast based on canvass returns or polling? The Lib Dems use a warm-up question, asking for respondent's opinion of their MP, in their polls. This is not used by polling companies as it tends to bias responses in favour of the incumbent. Canvass returns are always suspect as lots of voters lie to callers to avoid conversations or confrontations on the door step. Even if they are right, Danny Alexander will be be kicked out on Thursday. I don't know, I just heard the number and I do think he'll be kicked out too. Less sure about Kennedy who I think might scrape in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Got some third-hand info from the Lib Dem camp in the Highlands - they expect Danny Alexander to be no more than 2000 votes behind his opponent. The SNP had a 29% lead in Lord Ashcroft's poll of his seat back in late January. That's before the additional mini SNP surge that we have seen over the past month. They are something in the region of 1/10 with the bookies. Also, the Highlands had a 47.1% "yes" vote in the referendum, with Inverness itself voting "yes" and it makes up the bulk of the constituency. The only thing that could possibly save him or make it remotely close is a great deal of jiggery-pokery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 The SNP had a 29% lead in Lord Ashcroft's poll of his seat back in late January. That's before the additional mini SNP surge that we have seen over the past month. They are something in the region of 1/10 with the bookies. Also, the Highlands had a 47.1% "yes" vote in the referendum, with Inverness itself voting "yes" and it makes up the bulk of the constituency. The only thing that could possibly save him or make it remotely close is a great deal of jiggery-pokery. It'll be a lot of tactical voting, support from the wealthier areas of the constituency and the fact that Ashcroft polls don't name that candidate that will get him closer than that poll suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It'll be a lot of tactical voting, support from the wealthier areas of the constituency and the fact that Ashcroft polls don't name that candidate that will get him closer than that poll suggests. The Ashcroft polls do have a second question that ask respondents to think about their own constituency, i.e. the candidates. Ashcroft only uses polling firms who are reputable members of the British Polling Council so the methodology is sound. There won't be enough tactical or personal votes to deliver a 15% swing on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 It'll be a lot of tactical voting, support from the wealthier areas of the constituency and the fact that Ashcroft polls don't name that candidate that will get him closer than that poll suggests. The epitome of "scrambling for relevance". Even a 10% increased in Busted Flush support and a 10% decrease in SNP support from Ashcroft's findings would see him pumped out with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Aberdeen North – SNP gain from Labour Aberdeen South – SNP gain from Labour Airdrie and Shotts – SNP gain from Labour Angus – SNP hold Argyll and Bute – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – SNP gain from Labour Banff and Buchan – SNP hold Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Central Ayrshire – SNP gain from Labour Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – Labour hold Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – SNP gain from Labour Dumfries and Galloway – SNP gain from Labour Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – SNP gain from Conservatives Dundee East – SNP hold Dundee West – SNP gain from Labour Dunfermline and West Fife – Labour hold East Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow – SNP gain from Labour East Lothian – Labour hold East Renfrewshire – Labour hold Edinburgh East – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh South – Labour hold Edinburgh South West – SNP gain from Labour Edinburgh West – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow Central – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow East – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North East – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow North West – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South – SNP gain from Labour Glasgow South West – SNP gain from Labour Glenrothes – SNP gain from Labour Gordon – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Inverclyde – SNP gain from Labour Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Kilmarnock and Loudoun – SNP gain from Labour Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – SNP gain from Labour Lanark and Hamilton East – SNP gain from Labour Linlithgow and East Falkirk – SNP gain from Labour Livingston – SNP gain from Labour Midlothian – SNP gain from Labour Moray – SNP hold Motherwell and Wishaw – SNP gain from Labour Na h-Eileanan an Iar – SNP hold North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP gain from Labour North East Fife – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Ochil and South Perthshire – SNP gain from Labour Orkney and Shetland – Liberal Democrat hold Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP gain from Labour Paisley and Renfrewshire South – SNP gain from Labour Perth and North Perthshire – SNP hold Ross, Skye and Lochaber – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats Rutherglen and Hamilton West – Labour hold Stirling – SNP gain from Labour West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP gain from Liberal Democrats West Dunbartonshire – SNP gain from Labour SNP: 51, Labour: 6, Conservatives: 1, Liberal Democrats: 1 If that were to happen, I would whip my tadger out and crack one off where ever I happen to be. Who needs porn when you have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 The Ashcroft polls do have a second question that ask respondents to think about their own constituency, i.e. the candidates. Ashcroft only uses polling firms who are reputable members of the British Polling Council so the methodology is sound. There won't be enough tactical or personal votes to deliver a 15% swing on Thursday. Is it the second question that they use as the final result? The poll for Clegg's seat that's just been released shows that it has a pretty large effect. Sheffield Hallam constituency poll (ICM w/ candidates not named): LAB - 34% LDEM - 32% CON - 21% UKIP - 8% GRN - 4% Sheffield Hallam constituency poll (ICM w/ candidates named): LDEM - 42% LAB - 35% CON - 12% UKIP - 7% GRN - 3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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