Polls and predictions

[John Lambies Doos]

So do you believe the polls?

Nope. They are adopting uniform swings for seat counts, do not take into account tactical voting or local incumbent.

[Enigma]

Under 50.5 is 8/11 on Coral.

[Kyle]

The May 2015 election twitter feed pin pointed 13 seats they felt the SNP could struggle to win.

They mentioned the likes of East Dunbartonshire, Paisley South and Renfrewshire East in that list, where they hold commanding leads in the Ashcrofts polls. Indeed, Paisley shows the SNP over 50%

The ones where I feel the SNP have next to no chance are Berwickshire (Ashcroft has them only 1 point behind the Tories and 1 ahead of the Lib Dems, but I suspect labour voters might push the Lib dems over the line there) & Orkney and Shetland. The rest they have at least an outside chance in IMO, even Glasgow North East.

13 days to go, the polls haven't shifted downwards for the SNP in months, if anything the opposite has been the case. I can't see the electorate shitting it to such a degree that they'll drop below 35ish. 45 would be rather karmic, but there's obviously still a chance of 50+.

[Mr Heliums]

"Behind closed doors the morale of Labour activists is hitting new lows with every passing week"

[Edit: appears to be a paywall, though there wasn't when I first read it. Short summary: Labour f***ked]

[Baxter Parp]

"Behind closed doors the morale of Labour activists is hitting new lows with every passing week"

Pay site.

[Granny Danger]

"Behind closed doors the morale of Labour activists is hitting new lows with every passing week"

Any chance of a copy and paste job on this?

[John Lambies Doos]

Any chance of a copy and paste job on this?

This please

[Fide]

NEED

POLL

MUST

HAVE

POLL

[Mr Heliums]

[Edit: now deleted as welshbairn has done the needful]

[welshbairn]

Report from Glasgow – a city on the brink of a political earthquake

Grace McCloud, sitting in the garden of her council house in Possilpark, listened patiently as Willie Bain asked for her vote.

“We can get the Tories out and start delivering fairness in this country,” he told her. “Aye,” she replied, nodding.

“We won’t get fairness while they’re still in.” Again she replied, smiling: “Aye.”

After Mr Bain disappeared up the street she gave her honest opinion. “No, I’m voting SNP. I’m all for independence,” she said.

Possilpark is one of the most deprived areas in Glasgow, scarred by the decline of manufacturing since the 1980s: out of 70,000 adults only 28,000 are registered taxpayers. Close to 10,000 are on long-term sickness benefit.

Many of those canvassed by Mr Bain said they were solidly behind Labour. But the former MP is keeping an eye on the bookies’ odds, which are getting closer every day.

When Mr Bain – majority 15,942 – cannot take his seat of Glasgow North East for granted, it speaks volumes about the future of the Labour party in the Scottish city.

Out of seven Labour MPs in central Glasgow he may be the only one to survive on May 7.

Frank Burke, who lives on the other side of the city, was among the union members who went out on strike in the 1970s under the leadership of Jimmy Reid at the Upper Clyde Shipbuilders.

For decades there was no question that he would vote any other way than for Labour.

But the pensioner is disillusioned:

“Labour are rubbish, they are not left-wing any more, they should nationalise the railways, gas electricity,” he told me. “Instead they are full of careerist politicians and they do nothing for people like me.”

Some Glaswegians used to deride the Scottish National Party as “Tartan Tories”: But the tables have turned. Now there are stickers across the city attacking Labour as “Red Tories”.

Glasgow was once a Labour stronghold: it is now a fortress on the brink of conquest by the increasingly popular SNP.

In the Easterhouse estate in east Glasgow– another area of acute deprivation – every person who stopped to talk said they were likely to vote for the nationalists.

They included Graham Epton, a handyman who backed Scottish independence last year: he is now switching his support from Labour to the SNP.

Labour had monopolised votes in Easterhouse because it was for both “the working class and the unemployed”, said Mr Epton, chatting outside the Easterhouse Community Health Centre.

He described an area dogged in the past by “umpteen gangs” and endemic knife and drug crime – but with “hundreds of great people” getting by.

“I’m not sure that Labour are working for us any more. I know a lot of people who are definitely voting SNP. A lot of people.”

An early summer descended on Glasgow this week but the clouds are gathering for Labour.

Margaret Curran, shadow secretary of state for Scotland, said that only a “fool” would deny that Labour is facing a tough battle in the west coast city.

“There is a definite sense that people want change,” she said, talking to journalists after an event at a nursery in Baillieston in Glasgow East.

“They do feel that Westminster has let them down. We need to prove that the best party to produce positive change in the whole country is Labour.”

Glasgow East was Ms Curran’s seat in the last Parliament: now her majority of 11,840 looks likely to crumble.

It did not look very positive for Ms Curran on the streets of Easterhouse. Ann Monaghan, a cleaner, said that most of her friends and family would vote for the SNP – including herself.

“It’s most people now apart from a few diehard Labour people,” she said, waiting at a bus stop. Her friend, who did not give her name, is also SNP: “My son is making me,” she said.

Someone once told me of Scottish politics: “It’s so vicious because the stakes are so low”. (The quote was a twist on Henry Kissinger’s observation on student politics.)

Today that no longer holds.

Voters in Scotland now hold the key to the result of the general election, deciding the country’s political future for the next five years.

The polls are pointing to only one result: a landslide for the Scottish National Party.

There will be seats where Labour clings on: but it will be reduced from its previous tally of 40 MPs to a vastly diminished rump.

And that could decide – on the national canvas – whether Labour wins more seats than the Tories on May 7. It seems increasingly likely that Scotland will be the crucial factor.

The SNP had six MPs in the last Parliament. Now it is set to deliver 30, 40 or even 50 politicians to Westminster.

Labour’s biggest losses are expected in the one-time Red stronghold of Glasgow, a concept that some people find mind-boggling, including Sir Malcolm Rifkind, Tory former Scotland secretary. “It is like my party losing the Home Counties,” he told me.

Others on the outer fringes of the city are also under severe pressure: including Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire, Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Tom Greatrex in Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

Labour has not lost a seat at a general election in Glasgow for three decades: since 1983.

Political commentators often talk about “big events”: the resignation of a cabinet minister, a big Parliamentary defeat, or Mark Reckless winning the by-election in Rochester & Strood.

But it seem likely that Ukip’s two by-election victories last autumn will be only a footnote to 2014.

In Scotland – by contrast – it feels as if history is being made.

Polls are just polls, of course. But after four days talking to scores of people around different areas of Glasgow it seems pretty clear. The pollsters are right.

For years many Scots have voted one way for Holyrood elections and another for Westminster elections – delivering a majority to the SNP in Scotland four years ago. The big shift is their willingness to vote for the nationalists in both events.

What no one knows yet is whether a landslide for the SNP will turn out to be a cyclical event or structural.

The Tories thought they would return after being wiped out in Scotland in 1997: that recovery never came. (Although the party had one Tory MP in the last Parliament.)

Instead, the party seems as defunct as the Victorian gravestones in the Necropolis that looms above Glasgow, built by rich merchants in the heyday of the “Second City of the British Empire”.

For all their public talk of “confidence” and “resilience” some Labour strategists fear this is not a defeat that they will bounce back from too easily.

For anyone outside Glasgow– which has been a fiefdom of the Labour party for a lifetime – the trend may seem puzzling. The city holds a special place in the history of industrial relations, not least because of the “Red Clyde” workers’ demonstrations of the early 20th century.

“If you’re from Glasgow you’re a socialist,” said Stewart O’Neill, a Tory-supporting student. “My preference makes me unusual,” he said with considerable under-statement.

But the city was one of the few areas that backed independence in last autumn’s referendum: by 194,779 votes to 169,347. (Or 53%:47%).

That sense of longing for “freedom” and “change” has endured: and with it a feeling of having been short-changed by the Westminster parties in the immediate aftermath.

Mr Bain probably articulated it most clearly.

“What we have got here is a hybrid between the basic left-to-right politics you have got in England and the pure identify politics of Northern Ireland,” he said. “We are now a mix of the two. That makes it a challenging place electorally. What matters at the moment is how people feel.”

The sight of Labour politicians working alongside the widely-hated Tories has been immensely damaging.

John Boyle, one of Scotland’s best known entrepreneurs – who provided financial backing to last year’s Better Together anti-indepence campaign – still cannot quite believe the polls.

The multi-millionaire former owner of Motherwell FC is astonished by the spike in support for the SNP despite what he calls their “stardust” measures based on a “cloud of economic nonsense.”

“Having won the battle, to now lose the war seems extraordinary,” he said over a Diet Coke at his house in suburban east Glasgow.

Politicians like to think that the public are hanging on their every word; their promises, their speeches, their manifestos.

That is not the case – even in Scotland, where the level of political engagement is refreshing compared to the widespread apathy in England. (People are talking about politics at home, in the pub, in the workplace.)

Many Glaswegians told me they opposed Westminster-led “austerity” or perhaps the Trident nuclear deterrent: but no one mentioned zero-hours contracts, or the mansion tax, or free schools, or any of the other themes that dominate the English political debate. If anything they wanted Labour to be even more left-wing.

Instead many people described a positive emotional response to the SNP: they believed simply that the party would stick up for them.

This is the message on posters across the City, above a picture of a confident Nicola Sturgeon: “My vow is to make Scotland stronger at Westminster.” The SNP manifesto title? “Stronger for Scotland.”

It is a simple phrase but it is working.

At dawn, on the slopes of Ben Arthur, in the Trossachs National Park– half an hour north of Glasgow– I encountered climber Euan Ryan, a 20-something SNP supporter.

“A change is needed,” said Mr Ryan, who works in the creative industries.

“Things need to be shaken up a bit. I feel I don’t have a voice in Parliament at the moment and that is now going to change at last.”

The mood is perhaps best summed up by Samantha Morton, who works at a housing association.

She told me: “For the first time ever I think my vote might actually count for something…I feel completely empowered.”

At an event at Glasgow University on Tuesday night, former first minister Alex Salmond was given an honorary doctorate. In his acceptance speech he made a direct appeal to the hundreds of academic types sat in front of him and emphasising the SNP’s “progressive” ideals.

“Caged rats will choose freedom for other rats over cheese for themselves,” he declared, clad in red robes. “If even rats have empathy, so can humans.”

Lorna Young, a student at the university, said it was an “excellent” speech.

“The more represented the SNP is at Westminster, the more we will be able to put forward what we want as a country,” she said as she left the event. “I just don’t think Labour has put up a good fight for Scotland’s interests.”

The main thrust of Labour’s counter-attack is to warn that for every SNP politician sent to Westminster– at its expense – the more likely it will be that the Tories get back into government. And surely voters don’t want another Tory government?

That may sound logical. But it smacks of negative campaigning. And it is not cutting through to voters, many of whom believe that most politicians would say anything to get elected, true or otherwise.

Many believe the SNP claims that Labour would carry out “austerity-lite”. The Labour argument that it would cut the deficit less painfully than the Tories is not gaining much traction.

Nor is the claim from the IFS – made on Thursday – that the SNP would cut some parts of government even more deeply than Labour.

“I just think it’s scare tactics, that’s what we had during the referendum campaign,” said Ms Monaghan, the cleaner in Easterhouse. “I’m just fed up with it.”

Derek Holland, a 45-year old electrician, said he had heard the argument. “But I don’t think it will make any difference, Labour won’t make a difference.”

The SNP is picking up support from those who wanted independence last year – and came tantalisingly close – from other parties.

That alarms some Labour loyalists. “As far as I’m concerned, if you vote SNP you’re voting for the break-up of the UK, people need to wake up and realise it’s just around the corner,” warned John Wall, a 68-year old former union official.

In Possilpark, pensioner Patsy Filligan told Mr Bain that she would never back the nationalist “mob“. The last time the SNP knocked on her door she slammed it closed on them, she recalled. “They never came back.”

Such views are getting less common, however.

Behind closed doors the morale of Labour activists is hitting new lows with every passing week.

One compared the situation to being a professional sportsman doing the same thing as before – but this time finding it does not work. “Everything we do, everything we say, it just isn’t moving the dial,” he said mournfully.

Another former MP said he was disillusioned with politics. “I should have stood down last year,” he said.

One Labour figure observed that Scotland appeared to be gripped by something akin to the US Tea Party trend.

The Labour brand is in decline – even if it is still nothing like as toxic as that of the Tories.

“Labour used to be the party of the people but they aren’t any more,” said Mr Holland. “The SNP is the new lot, the way Labour used to be.”

Labour candidates are astonished by the speed of the reversal, which has occurred in barely half a year. “Last summer you could get odds of 100:1 on me losing my seat,” said one former Glasgow MP, incredulously.

Some fear that the party was damaged by its association with the Tories during the Better Together campaign.

Others within the party point to an organisation hollowed out by decades of complacency.

“I went up to help the campaign last summer and asked who the local organisers were and where I could see their database,” said one member of the shadow cabinet. “They didn’t have one – because they hadn’t needed to do any campaigning for so long.”

Jim Murphy, Labour’s leader in Scotland, struck an upbeat note as he campaigned on a soap box in Glasgow City Centre on Tuesday morning – a technique he refined during the independence campaign.

Mr Murphy seemed to enjoy taking on SNP hecklers, rolling up his shirt sleeves as he declared that always loathed “bullies” when he was growing up on a Scottish “project” – or estate. “You’ve got to do better next time,” he told his tormenters, after drowning them out with his microphone.

But Mr Murphy’s machismo belies the fact that he too is in potential trouble. His seat of East Renfrewshire– which he has held for 18 years – is up for grabs, if a poll by Lord Ashcroft is correct.

Mr Murphy appears to have aged rapidly. “He has gone grey in the last five months,” said one of his own activists.

Vincent Waters, who is managing the local SNP campaign from a former butchers in Clarkston, said his party had made contact with nearly 10,000 people in the constituency.

“The number of those people who said ‘I have voted Labour all my life and I’m going to back you was unbelievable,” he said over a cup of tea.

Mr Murphy is not a popular figure in Glasgow, judging by people who spoke to the FT.

Arthur McPhillimy, one of his constituents, said he was “not impressed” by his former MP. “He doesn’t strike me as a strong person. He is wishy-washy,” the pensioner said.

Others are even more hostile. “I just don’t trust him, don’t like him, he’s a typical politician,” said one waitress. “He was really aggressive in the TV debates.”

On Ed Miliband the verdict was in a way even more damning: people just weren’t interested.

“Weak” was one comment. “Well-meaning” was another. Many people barely had any view on Labour’s national leader at all.

Mr Mr Miliband flew into the area on Monday to address trade unionists at their annual conference at Ayr racecourse.

He delivered a passionate speech, citing Keir Hardie – who lived locally – and promised a list of union-friendly policies such as an inquiry into blacklisting.

“His picture hangs on my wall as a constant reminder of all the strength and courage of the people who built this movement,” Mr Miliband said.

But the oration was met with a half-hearted standing ovation. Perhaps 30 out of nearly 200 people in the room took to their feet to applaud the Labour leader.

Scotland’s union movement, supposedly the backbone of Labour, is deeply divided – with Unite and Unison having refused to campaign against independence last year.

Twenty miles up the road is the gravestone of Keir Hardie himself, although many of the locals in the village of Cumnock seemed unaware.

Local people had only vague opinions – if any about the celebrated Labour stalwart. “Never heard of him,” said Angie Dynburn, 19, pushing a pram.

Gillian Davies, 58, said she had never visited the grave despite living in the village.

“The older generation might know about it, but not me, I suppose it might be something they teach in schools?” she said.

[Adam]

That's a brilliant article, fantastic to see so many people all over Glasgow are disillusioned with Labour and what they supposedly stand for.

[Thumper]

So do you believe the polls?

Polling has never been as good as it is now. The entire field has come on massively in the last ten years. I'd be far less convinced if we were relying only on uniform swing, given the extent of the majorities than many SLabbers are holding, but these are corroborated by direct constituency polling saying the same thing. As I've also repeatedly said, if the polling is wrong then it is catastrophic for an entire cottage industry of pollsters and statisticians for whom it is their day job.

[Kyle]

That's a glorious read. Pretty close to the pulse too. Even those who voted no in the referendum in my office all seem to have gone SNP.

[John Lambies Doos]

A glorious article. Everyone I know is voting SNP

[The Master]

That's a glorious read. Pretty close to the pulse too. Even those who voted no in the referendum in my office all seem to have gone SNP.

The referendum result showed that even if you don't support independence, you can still vote for the SNP because there will always be a referendum "safety net".

[Kyle]

The referendum result showed that even if you don't support independence, you can still vote for the SNP because there will always be a referendum "safety net".

Indeed. I think it's clear that most people in Scotland felt we'd been neglected and wanted change. The SNP have identified this and been much more positive with our prospects than labour. SNP are the logical option for Scots at this election IMO. If they 'do a labour' on us, we can always vote for someone else.

[Fide]

That's the best article I've read so far during this campaign. Excellent stuff.

[John Lambies Doos]

That's the best article I've read so far during this campaign. Excellent stuff.

Did it temper your anxiety for a poll in any way?

[Fide]

Did it temper your anxiety for a poll in any way?

It gave me a wee sip, which has addressed the thirst. Could still go a big drink, tbf.

Yourself?

[Ludo*1]

How accurate is Ashcroft's polling? This is the first time he's done major polling, yes?