strichener Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Okay I'll bite. The NHS hasn't been privatised and even if you think it has why are Labour responsible? Having private doctors run NHS funded operations on NHS patients isn't privatisation. That simply means that the NHS have decided it is better use of budget to outsource the procedure to a private healthcare firm rather than spend their own time and money on it. True privatisation would be a system where you have to pony up or have health insurance before the docs look at you. No one is proposing that. And anyway the recent NHS reforms in England and Wales were brought in by the coalition not Labour. Private Doctors? Most of these so called "private" doctors and surgeons also work in the NHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Na, 4/5 Labour, 10/11 SNP with Paddy Power. I'm assuming you've had a good drink in celebration today so I will ignore your error. I noticed it when uber pished at 3am yesterday morning so I think it must have been an error on Paddy Power which they have corrected now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Latest YouGov poll (18 - 19 Apr): LAB - 35% (-1) CON - 34% (+1) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-1) GRN - 5% (-) Getting pretty boring now. It's really not going to change much is it over the next couple of weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Latest YouGov poll (18 - 19 Apr): LAB - 35% (-1) CON - 34% (+1) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-1) GRN - 5% (-) Getting pretty boring now. It's really not going to change much is it over the next couple of weeks? Yougov churning polls out daily. When is the next Scottish one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddly optomistic Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Yougov churning polls out daily. When is the next Scottish one? You getting the shakes again? ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Yougov churning polls out daily. When is the next Scottish one? Pass. I haven't seen anything as to when. Must be one due though. It's been a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 You getting the shakes again? Aye. Its been too long. There is defo a survation poll for the daily record coming out on Thursday, but thats a long wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Ashcroft tweeted an hour or so ago that he's done two more Scottish seats. He mentioned "Tuesday at the latest" but it's not clear if he means the fieldwork finishing then or if this is when they're being released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html I could live with this. The LibDem number would be particularly welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 SNP 48 is a bit of a drop The 11 non SNP seats are Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) West Dunbartonshire (Yes area) Glasgow East (History of voting SNP) Glasgow North East Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead) Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Paisley & Renfrewshire South East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second) Rutherglen & Hamilton West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 SNP 48 is a bit of a drop The 11 non SNP seats are Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) West Dunbartonshire (Yes area) Glasgow East (History of voting SNP) Glasgow North East Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead) Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Paisley & Renfrewshire South East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second) Rutherglen & Hamilton West Snp don't win Glasgow east but win the borders seats and the Norse territories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 SNP 48 is a bit of a drop The 11 non SNP seats are Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) West Dunbartonshire (Yes area) Glasgow East (History of voting SNP) Glasgow North East Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead) Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Paisley & Renfrewshire South East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second) Rutherglen & Hamilton West They just apply a national swing and these are the ones where the 2010 Lab Majority was bigger than the average national swing, I guess. Far more likely that Labour will salvage Edinburgh seats via Tories going to Labour than Labour hanging onto it's Glasgow seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 SNP 48 is a bit of a drop The 11 non SNP seats are Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) West Dunbartonshire (Yes area) Glasgow East (History of voting SNP) Glasgow North East Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead) Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Paisley & Renfrewshire South East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second) Rutherglen & Hamilton West This is where electoral calculus is nonsense. It works on uniform swing and recent UK wide opinion polls, which are weighted against 2010 Elections. Mr Rational was on yesterday saying that labour were neck and neck in edin south, this is from on ground canvassing, yet does not appear above. Yet places like glasgow south west do, where local constituency polling shows SNP miles ahead. Now, im not saying SNP will win 48 seats. I would be mildly happy with 30+ and ecstatic with 40+ (on record saying this and that 50+ is fantasy) but electoral calculus is a pile of shite HTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Latest YouGov poll has SNP on 47 labour 26. Subsample alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Glasgow East will be going SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Glasgow East will be going SNP. It certainly will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Glasgow East will be going SNP. I cannot wait to see Magrit's face when she gets papped out. And wee Dougie. And Anas. And Murphy. It gon be goooood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Glasgow East will be going SNP. We do have a habit for going against the incumbent parties, such as the SNP win in the by-election in 2008 and Labour retaking it in the 2010 election. Would love to see history repeating itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 20, 2015 Author Share Posted April 20, 2015 Latest YouGov poll has SNP on 47 labour 26. Subsample alert. LibDems on 12% in Scotland, 7% England and Wales? That has to be a blip. As for the other figures, as you say it's a sub sample but very much in line with all the other polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 SNP 48 is a bit of a drop The 11 non SNP seats are Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) West Dunbartonshire (Yes area) Glasgow East (History of voting SNP) Glasgow North East Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead) Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat) Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead) Paisley & Renfrewshire South East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second) Rutherglen & Hamilton West Both of these have incumbents stepping down so will be losing personal votes as well as the swing. Bookies have the SNP to take both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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