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Polls and predictions


Granny Danger

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Okay I'll bite. The NHS hasn't been privatised and even if you think it has why are Labour responsible?

Having private doctors run NHS funded operations on NHS patients isn't privatisation. That simply means that the NHS have decided it is better use of budget to outsource the procedure to a private healthcare firm rather than spend their own time and money on it. True privatisation would be a system where you have to pony up or have health insurance before the docs look at you. No one is proposing that.

And anyway the recent NHS reforms in England and Wales were brought in by the coalition not Labour.

Private Doctors?

Most of these so called "private" doctors and surgeons also work in the NHS.

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Na, 4/5 Labour, 10/11 SNP with Paddy Power. I'm assuming you've had a good drink in celebration today so I will ignore your error.

I noticed it when uber pished at 3am yesterday morning so I think it must have been an error on Paddy Power which they have corrected now

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Latest YouGov poll (18 - 19 Apr): LAB - 35% (-1) CON - 34% (+1) UKIP - 13% (-) LDEM - 8% (-1) GRN - 5% (-)

Getting pretty boring now. It's really not going to change much is it over the next couple of weeks?

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Ashcroft tweeted an hour or so ago that he's done two more Scottish seats. He mentioned "Tuesday at the latest" but it's not clear if he means the fieldwork finishing then or if this is when they're being released.

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SNP 48 is a bit of a drop

The 11 non SNP seats are

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

West Dunbartonshire (Yes area)

Glasgow East (History of voting SNP)

Glasgow North East

Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead)

Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat)

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second)

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

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SNP 48 is a bit of a drop

The 11 non SNP seats are

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

West Dunbartonshire (Yes area)

Glasgow East (History of voting SNP)

Glasgow North East

Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead)

Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat)

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second)

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

Snp don't win Glasgow east but win the borders seats and the Norse territories?

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SNP 48 is a bit of a drop

The 11 non SNP seats are

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

West Dunbartonshire (Yes area)

Glasgow East (History of voting SNP)

Glasgow North East

Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead)

Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat)

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second)

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

They just apply a national swing and these are the ones where the 2010 Lab Majority was bigger than the average national swing, I guess. Far more likely that Labour will salvage Edinburgh seats via Tories going to Labour than Labour hanging onto it's Glasgow seats.

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SNP 48 is a bit of a drop

The 11 non SNP seats are

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

West Dunbartonshire (Yes area)

Glasgow East (History of voting SNP)

Glasgow North East

Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead)

Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat)

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second)

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

This is where electoral calculus is nonsense.

It works on uniform swing and recent UK wide opinion polls, which are weighted against 2010 Elections.

Mr Rational was on yesterday saying that labour were neck and neck in edin south, this is from on ground canvassing, yet does not appear above. Yet places like glasgow south west do, where local constituency polling shows SNP miles ahead.

Now, im not saying SNP will win 48 seats. I would be mildly happy with 30+ and ecstatic with 40+ (on record saying this and that 50+ is fantasy) but electoral calculus is a pile of shite

HTH

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Glasgow East will be going SNP.

We do have a habit for going against the incumbent parties, such as the SNP win in the by-election in 2008 and Labour retaking it in the 2010 election.

Would love to see history repeating itself.

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Latest YouGov poll has SNP on 47 labour 26.

Subsample alert.

LibDems on 12% in Scotland, 7% England and Wales? That has to be a blip.

As for the other figures, as you say it's a sub sample but very much in line with all the other polls.

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SNP 48 is a bit of a drop

The 11 non SNP seats are

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

West Dunbartonshire (Yes area)

Glasgow East (History of voting SNP)

Glasgow North East

Glasgow South West (Ashcroft had the SNP miles ahead)

Glenrothes (SNP hold the Holyrood seat)

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Motherwell & Wishaw (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead)

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

East Renfrewshire (Ashcroft had the SNP ahead but electoral calculus have Murphy holding on and the Tories finishing second)

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

Both of these have incumbents stepping down so will be losing personal votes as well as the swing.

Bookies have the SNP to take both

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