Fide Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'm going to heart the shit out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The pages for Scotland are particularly interesting (or depressing if you're a SLAB fan) http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html I'm not sure I believe all of that. I think that puts SNP favourites to win 47 seats, but they include the two from around Dumfries and Berwickshire where they appear to be no where and don't include Glasgow East, Dumbartonshire West and Motherwell, where they're apparently miles ahead also. Is this completely up to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The only seat south of Glasgow that's even up for grabs at this juncture is Mundell's, surely? The west coast will be a clean sweep for the SNP. The last poll I saw for Mundell's seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (In February) was 34% a piece for the SNP and Tories. Mapping constituency opinion polls Too close to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 I'm not sure I believe all of that. I think that puts SNP favourites to win 47 seats, but they include the two from around Dumfries and Berwickshire where they appear to be no where and don't include Glasgow East, Dumbartonshire West and Motherwell, where they're apparently miles ahead also. Is this completely up to date? No, it's months out of date. In particular, Curran hasn't a fucking chance in Hell of holding Glasgow East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 The reality is that if the numbers stay roughly where they are predicted to be right now, every single seat (including Orkney and Shetland as a long shot) is in play for the SNP. The "experts" are still reluctant to predict that for fear of looking foolish later, if there is a late swing back to Labour. That could still happen obviously, but with each passing week looks increasingly unlikely, because Jim Murphy was their best bet to slowly win back the Celtic supporting demographic (no point bringing religion into it when most people have long since stopped going to church) in the schemes of the central belt that used to be the absolute bedrock of their support. That demographic started to switch to the SNP in large numbers in 2007 and 2011, and swung heavily towards the Yes side in the referendum to the extent that Glasgow voted Yes while traditional SNP strongholds like Fraserburgh clearly voted No, which would have been unthinkable a decade ago when the Glasgow area was still viewed as being a bit of a lost cause for the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 No, it's months out of date. In particular, Curran hasn't a fucking chance in Hell of holding Glasgow East. Is there a similar site that is kept up to date? I like the idea behind the Electoral Calculus site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Jim Murphy was their best bet to slowly win back the Celtic supporting demographic (no point bringing religion into it when most people have long since stopped going to church) in the schemes of the central belt that used to be the absolute bedrock of their support Except he wasn't. His fig-leaf populism might play well to suburban newspaper editors, but his enthusiastic support for every single thing Tony Blair ever did means he was an absolutely terrible choice to win back an urban vote that still prides itself on its support for social justice. Even people who wanted Labour destroyed tried to point that out prior to his election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Tactical voting will keep Salmond out........... Have you ever watched the BBC documentary with Salmond? He used this Gordon trick before, I think in 2011? It was a seat where the SNP had a chance, but not as easy a seat as some of the others. I think he's standing there to help take the focus away from other marginal seats. If the Lib Dems/SLAB throw their resources at Gordon to keep out Salmond, other areas may go unchecked and they'll gain more than that one seat, which they have a great chance in anyway. Losing Salmond from the Westminster group would obviously be a blow, but gaining several others as a result would more than make up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Is there a similar site that is kept up to date? I like the idea behind the Electoral Calculus site. Ideally Nate Silver would be doing this, but he seems to have decided that he's going to embarrass himself no matter what he does regarding coverage of the UK and so fivethirtyeight seems to have scaled back its promises of better coverage this time. Ashcroft is the only one doing per-seat polling in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Hopefully we see more Scottish constituency polls before the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Except he wasn't. His fig-leaf populism might play well to suburban newspaper editors, but his enthusiastic support for every single thing Tony Blair ever did means he was an absolutely terrible choice to win back an urban vote that still prides itself on its support for social justice. Even people who wanted Labour destroyed tried to point that out prior to his election. Let's turn it around another way then, who else did they have that could step in and start pushing some populist hot button topics over stuff like chants and drinking at football games that were supposed to resonate with a particular demographic and returns things to what Labour hacks would view as normality? The guy they really needed from that political generation is standing in Bradford West, because he lost the plot by becoming too close to people like Saddam Hussein. Murphy was the best they had available and it fell flat for them. At this point they probably need a spectacular gaffe from the SNP to save the day for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Have you ever watched the BBC documentary with Salmond? He used this Gordon trick before, I think in 2011? It was a seat where the SNP had a chance, but not as easy a seat as some of the others. I think he's standing there to help take the focus away from other marginal seats. If the Lib Dems/SLAB throw their resources at Gordon to keep out Salmond, other areas may go unchecked and they'll gain more than that one seat, which they have a great chance in anyway. Losing Salmond from the Westminster group would obviously be a blow, but gaining several others as a result would more than make up for that. It was 2007. Although it worked then, because he was safe in the knowledge he could get in on the list. The SNP will take Gordon, and they'll be weighing the majority. If Salmond isn't elected in Gordon I'll never post here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Let's turn it around another way then, who else did they have that could step in and start pushing some populist hot button topics over stuff like chants and drinking at football games that were supposed to resonate with a particular demographic and returns things to what Labour hacks would view as normality? The guy they really needed from that political generation is standing in Bradford West, because he lost the plot by becoming too close to people like Saddam Hussein. Murphy was the best they had available and it fell flat for them. At this point they probably need a spectacular gaffe from the SNP to save the day for them. Which is exactly why they've been trying to perpetuate one since Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Is there a similar site that is kept up to date? I like the idea behind the Electoral Calculus site. ukelect.co.uk Updates regularly and also includes Scottish parliament predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Let's turn it around another way then, who else did they have that could step in and start pushing some populist hot button topics over stuff like chants and drinking at football games that were supposed to resonate with a particular demographic and returns things to what Labour hacks would view as normality? You're making the same mistake that they did. Socialist populism is not interchangeable with any other form of populism: if it were, then Ukip wouldn't be polling on 2% in Scotland on their platform of smoking in pubs and sending the buggers back. The guy they really needed from that political generation is standing in Bradford West, because he lost the plot by becoming too close to people like Saddam Hussein. Murphy was the best they had available and it fell flat for them. At this point they probably need a spectacular gaffe from the SNP to save the day for them. Neil Findlay would almost certainly have done better than Murphy has. Galloway could quite possibly have done a decent job as well (in an alternative universe), even if he's an absolute fraud, but the problem is of course that he's utterly reviled within the party itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 It was 2007. Although it worked then, because he was safe in the knowledge he could get in on the list. The SNP will take Gordon, and they'll be weighing the majority. If Salmond isn't elected in Gordon I'll never post here again. Are we sure that Salmond even wants to go down to Westminster? Indeed, do we want him down there? He's a hilarious troll, but he'll be like a red rag to a bull for a lot of the establishment parties there. He certainly wont help build any bridges! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FuzzyAffro Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Are we sure that Salmond even wants to go down to Westminster? Indeed, do we want him down there? He's a hilarious troll, but he'll be like a red rag to a bull for a lot of the establishment parties there. He certainly wont help build any bridges! Yes we're sure. You're too reasonable for your own good, we're not building any bridges we're throwing fuckin hand grenades. They declared war on us three years ago, we're now about to take it to them. And before you start your shite we don't need to build any bridges with unionist parties in order to gain independence, so don't even say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yes we're sure. You're too reasonable for your own good, we're not building any bridges we're throwing fuckin hand grenades. They declared war on us three years ago, we're now about to take it to them. And before you start your shite we don't need to build any bridges with unionist parties in order to gain independence, so don't even say it. Where else are you getting the votes from to become independent? We need, what, 200,000ish people to change their vote from no to yes, at the same time as ensuring those who voted yes remain a yes. Throwing a hand grenade at Westminster and destabilising the UK wont help anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Yes we're sure. You're too reasonable for your own good, we're not building any bridges we're throwing fuckin hand grenades. They declared war on us three years ago, we're now about to take it to them. And before you start your shite we don't need to build any bridges with unionist parties in order to gain independence, so don't even say it. That's exactly why I posted that thread saying the SNP shouldn't jump in to bed with Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Are we sure that Salmond even wants to go down to Westminster? Indeed, do we want him down there? He's a hilarious troll, but he'll be like a red rag to a bull for a lot of the establishment parties there. He certainly wont help build any bridges! Him and Sturgeon are playing a blinder imo, totally wrong footing them. He plays the bad cop, provokes crazed indignant reactions which are then blown out of the water by good cop Nicola who everyone sees as eminently reasonable. They don't have a clue how to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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