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Granny Danger

Polls and predictions

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I know there's a huge number of threads on here already, but with four and a half weeks to go I thought it would be useful to have a thread dedicated to the polls and predictions emanating from them.

Please don't use this thread for general discussion, there are plenty threads already for this.

I will start with these links to sites that concentrate on polls and projections.

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk

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I did a forecast yesterday, based on who is the bookies' favourite for each seat. There were a couple (including my own) where they can't choose between two parties so I have tried to make an educated prediction in these circumstances.

Came out as follows:

Conservative: 276

Labour: 275

SNP: 41

Lib Dem: 31

DUP: 9

Sinn Fein: 5

Plaid Cymru: 3

SDLP: 3

UKIP: 3

Green: 1

Independent: 1

Respect: 1

Speaker: 1

Assuming that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, and that there is no change of Deputy Speaker (currently a Labour MP) it would render a Tory or Labour Minority Government virtually unfeasible.

Even with the Lib Dems onside, Conservatives would be fifteen and Labour seventeen short of a majority.

The Tories simply wouldn't have enough allies to get a workable majority, so I think the outcome would be a formal Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition, with the support of the SNP on an issue-by-issue basis.

For Scotland only, my results were as follows:

SNP: 41

Labour: 14

Lib Dems: 3

Conservative: 1

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I did a forecast yesterday, based on who is the bookies' favourite for each seat. There were a couple (including my own) where they can't choose between two parties so I have tried to make an educated prediction in these circumstances.

Came out as follows:

Conservative: 276

Labour: 275

SNP: 41

Lib Dem: 31

DUP: 9

Sinn Fein: 5

Plaid Cymru: 3

SDLP: 3

UKIP: 3

Green: 1

Independent: 1

Respect: 1

Speaker: 1

Assuming that Sinn Fein don't take their seats, and that there is no change of Deputy Speaker (currently a Labour MP) it would render a Tory or Labour Minority Government virtually unfeasible.

Even with the Lib Dems onside, Conservatives would be fifteen and Labour seventeen short of a majority.

The Tories simply wouldn't have enough allies to get a workable majority, so I think the outcome would be a formal Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition, with the support of the SNP on an issue-by-issue basis.

For Scotland only, my results were as follows:

SNP: 41

Labour: 14

Lib Dems: 3

Conservative: 1

Most of the polls over the last couple of weeks are showing a similar picture; Labour + SNP just short of a majority. Add PC and Greens and accepting the Sinn Fein position it may just be possible to get a majority without Lib Dem support. Any combination that excluded the Lib Dems would be preferable IMO.

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Hmm.

I think any realistic coalition or C&S between two parties will be workable. i.e Tory + LD, Tory + UKIP, Tory + DUP, Lab + LD, Lab + SNP, Lab + Green, Labour + Plaid.

The real mess comes when you start alliances of 3 or more parties. Which would be realistic?

Actually, I think a right alliance would work (Tory + UKIP + DUP). I don't think the Lib Dems would touch an agreement with the Tories and either UKIP or DUP.

I think it's obvious that the SNP, Greens and Plaid would work together with labour to form a left alliance.

The most interesting question is would the Lib Dems get involved in a left 3-way with, most likely, Labour and the SNP? I think that would probably work. Labour surely couldn't be confident of winning another election outright, and I doubt the SNP or Lib Dems would mind. There's also a bit of overlap between the SNP and Lib Dems on voting reform, reform of the house of lords and even constitutional reform.

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Most of the polls over the last couple of weeks are showing a similar picture; Labour + SNP just short of a majority. Add PC and Greens and accepting the Sinn Fein position it may just be possible to get a majority without Lib Dem support. Any combination that excluded the Lib Dems would be preferable IMO.

There's no way parties with as few seats as the Greens and PC will be part of the Government. If you're at the stage where you're relying on parties with a handful of seats to get votes passed, you're at the stage where any minor backbench rebellion will stop you. In short, it would make governing completely impossible and lead to a fresh election within the year.

It's odd that the Lib Dems are facing meltdown but are probably the party most certain to form part of the next Government!

Edited by Bully Wee Villa

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The Lib Dems are the most malleable party. They are probably the only party that could work eith either Labour OR the Tories.

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Hmm.

I think any realistic coalition or C&S between two parties will be workable. i.e Tory + LD, Tory + UKIP, Tory + DUP, Lab + LD, Lab + SNP, Lab + Green, Labour + Plaid.

The real mess comes when you start alliances of 3 or more parties. Which would be realistic?

Actually, I think a right alliance would work (Tory + UKIP + DUP). I don't think the Lib Dems would touch an agreement with the Tories and either UKIP or DUP.

I think it's obvious that the SNP, Greens and Plaid would work together with labour to form a left alliance.

The most interesting question is would the Lib Dems get involved in a left 3-way with, most likely, Labour and the SNP? I think that would probably work. Labour surely couldn't be confident of winning another election outright, and I doubt the SNP or Lib Dems would mind. There's also a bit of overlap between the SNP and Lib Dems on voting reform, reform of the house of lords and even constitutional reform.

There's no way parties with as few seats as the Greens and PC will be part of the Government. If you're at the stage where you're relying on parties with a handful of seats to get votes passed, you're at the stage where any minor backbench rebellion will stop you. In short, it would make governing completely impossible and lead to a fresh election within the year.

It's odd that the Lib Dems are facing meltdown but are probably the party most certain to form part of the next Government!

If I were being flippant I would do a "Multi party arrangements are here to stay. Deal with it!" gif.

In all seriousness I think the major parties may have to get used to a new reality. I'm not suggesting any of the smaller parties as part of a Labour government, including the SNP, I'm suggesting a group who can ensure a majority in the Commons.

If there is a further election in the next year or two and it leads to similar results what would the major parties do then? I don't like the idea of unstable governments but I like the idea of politicians having to convince others of their arguements if they can't win an outright majority.

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That went well.

Mea culpa, though these sort of discussions are almost a consequence of seat predictions.

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I'm predicting there will be two elections this year.

The idea of this is laughable. How can any party go from clearly being nowhere near good enough to win a majority to actually winning one in the space of six months?

Obviously many voters are quite thick, but still.

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The idea of this is laughable. How can any party go from clearly being nowhere near good enough to win a majority to actually winning one in the space of six months?

Obviously many voters are quite thick, but still.

Exactly. I can't help but feel that they have to work with what the voters give them, if we go back to the polls you'll surely get the same result again?

But then in 1979 the second election produced a majority.

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Exactly. I can't help but feel that they have to work with what the voters give them, if we go back to the polls you'll surely get the same result again?

But then in 1979 the second election produced a majority.

What second election was held in 1979?

Are you referring to 1974?

Try to get the basic things right please.

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I predict SNP will get about 45% of the vote in Scotland.

Thank God for first past the post. Never thought so before, but it's a great system. :lol:

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i think a second election is highly unlikely for no other reason than it costs an absolute fortune to fight an election these days

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Two party combinations to win a confidence vote might last five years as has happened with the current coalition, but a three or four party combination is unlikely to be stable for long and as things stand at the moment that could easily happen.

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What second election was held in 1979?

Are you referring to 1974?

Try to get the basic things right please.

My apologies.

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