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10 weeks out GE prediction

Questions...  

59 members have voted

  1. 1. Which party will secure the largest number of votes ?

  2. 2. Which party will secure the largest number of seats ?

  3. 3. Who will be PM post GE ?



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Just what's needed - a thread with a poll questions that most Scots don't actually give a shit about.

Please don't be a dick about it eh!

For the record, politically I couldn't give a f**k who wins. I'm still interested in how it will play out though.

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I wish you well with your thread and poll but it just brings home to me how much I couldn't give a f**k and how irrlevant these men and their parties are to me, my friends and family.

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Read somewhere that the Tories need to make up an awful amount of ground to get an overall majority. Think therefore that they might win more votes but fewer seats than Labour.

Labour might then do some kind of deal with SNP and Greens.

Hard to think of Ed the Plimsoll as PM though. Just doesn't compute.

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Tories to narrowly win the popular vote but Labour to hold most seats. That is based on UKIP shedding votes to both as we close on polling day but the conservatives getting slightly more. Labour does very well in seats with low turn out so that helps them win more on fewer votes. (One of the reasons)

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It will be interesting to see how low the amount of people voting compared to there was in september

i know im not bothering

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Just what's needed - a thread with a poll questions that most Scots don't actually give a shit about.

Gonna need some proof of this.

Even if it turns out to be the case, doesn't that apply to almost every thread on PnB?

To answer the OP, the Tories could win the popular vote but still get less seats than Labour. Current polling trends have Labour winning both though. My current feeling is that Labour will get over 300 seats and form a pact with the Lib Dems, who will of course oust Nick Clegg and elect a leader from the left of the party.

Labour will lose nearly half their Scottish seats and the SNP will be able to form the second largest opposition group. Their narrative will be that Miliband made no 10 despite losing 20 seats in Scotland, further proving the argument that Scotland's votes make little difference. The Labour narrative will be that had Scotland returned their usual 40+ Labour MPs, they would have had a majority, so Scotland actually managed to force a hung parliament.

UKIP will win just 3 seats. Their current 2 will hold their seats, and Farage will win Thanet South. The Greens hold their current seat and lose Edinburgh East by a few hundred votes. The Lib Dems lose just over half of their seats.

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Read somewhere that the Tories need to make up an awful amount of ground to get an overall majority. Think therefore that they might win more votes but fewer seats than Labour.

Labour might then do some kind of deal with SNP and Greens.

Hard to think of Ed the Plimsoll as PM though. Just doesn't compute.

Greens will be lucky to produce one seat.

Might just as well say do a deal with George Galloway.

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I think that the Tories will win the popular vote, and possibly edge it in terms of most seats, but not enough for a majority. Perhaps a Con/LD/DUP coalition next time around.

As much has been said on here before, but Labour losing on seats and popular vote, and getting trounced in Scotland, but getting in on the back of a coalition with the SNP would make for a truly beautiful meltdown in the English media. I'm undecided as to whether I'd want the SNP to get involved in such a coalition though.

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Only really interested in what happens in Scotland.

A Tory win will help the independence cause so I suppose that will be the preferred option.

Can't bring myself to care too much about who makes up the government TBH.

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Please don't be a dick about it eh!

For the record, politically I couldn't give a f**k who wins. I'm still interested in how it will play out though.

Posted in a politics section where, based on posts, > 90% are SNP supporters, I stand by my original post.

Most of these people will be basing it on what they hope will be best for Scotland, so I can't see what it achieves.

ETA: See the previous post for exactly this.

Edited by strichener

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Read somewhere that the Tories need to make up an awful amount of ground to get an overall majority. Think therefore that they might win more votes but fewer seats than Labour.

Yep, they are down on 2010 and Labour are up on their percentage. The Tories are currently in a net lose position and even when they're ahead of Labour in the polls they will still lose seats to them as the margin isn't near what it was in 2010. That may be offset to some extent depending on just how much of a 'mare Labour have in Scotland, but it won't be enough for them.

They could still end up with the most MPs right enough, but if they do it will be with less than they had in 2010.

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I think we'll see Labour only short by around 5-10. They will be relatively comfortable.

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