speckled tangerine Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Plough on son. I'd say most are enjoying your views (if not necessarily agreeing with them!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
imaculate pasta Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Anyone still reading this before I go on to start cycling through the regions of England? For charity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Right so here's where I'm at with Scotland, Wales & NI counted Labour 51 SNP 34 DUP 9 Sinn Fein 6 Conservatives 6 Plaid Cymru 4 Liberal Democrats 4 SDLP 2 Independents 1 First region of England is... NORTH WEST Now there are 75 seats in this region. In 2010 the Tories carries 22 of them, with 6 going to the Lib Dems and the remaining 47 being Labour holds. Labour won't be losing any of the 47. The only chance of them losing seats in England would be in the handful of seats UKIP and the Greens are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at, and none of them are in this region. Now the 6 Lib Dem seats are interesting. Westmorland & Lonsdale, which is the seat of Tim Farron, is their safest seat in the country not named Orkney & Shetland. Cheadle is a seat where I like their chances of a surprising hold, the main reason being UKIP preventing too much of a jump for the Tories, Lord Ashcroft has the Libbies holding Cheadle. The next seat, Hazel Grove, is almost identical to Cheadle, I don't think either falls but if one does they probably both will. Southport will continue the trend of the Lib Dems holding potential Tory targets, Ashcroft actually has them increasing their majority. Manchester Withington and Burnley fall to Labour, though. Now for the 22 Tory seats. The safe seats from this cohort are Altrincham & Sale West, Congleton, Crewe & Nantwich, Eddisbury, Fylde, Macclesfield, Penrith & The Border, Ribble Valley, Tatton (George Osbourne's seat) and Wyre & Preston North. That's 10/22. The remaining 12 are worth examining in more depth because they're susceptible to a 5% Labour swing, even less in some of them 1. Blackpool North & Cleveleys -Difficult call this. First time Tory incumbency but Labour only need a 3% swing plus you have a former Tory Councillor running for UKIP. Labour gain. Just. 2. Bury North -Another seat where UKIP will held Labour sneak in the back door. 3. Carlisle -If Labour don't gain this seat it will be a very long night for Red Ed 4. Lancaster & Fleetwood -Tough one for Labour here because the Greens are stronger than UKIP in this area. We'll chalk this up as a Conservative hold. 5. Morecambe & Lunesdale Labour to gain this one, yet again helped by a sizeable UKIP vote. 6. Pendle Strong UKIP seat, but Ashcroft has this down as a seat where Labour and not the Tories are the donating party. Conservatives to hold this one. 7. Rossendale & Darwen Probably the safest of the "marginals" in this list. Labour, who's candidate is the son of Jack Straw, need the full 5% swing. Tory hold. 8. South Ribble Another one that the full 5% would be needed, so I like the chances of a Tory hold. 9. Warrington South Labour will take this one back. It was a three way marginal in 2010, the LD collapse more than anything turns this one red. 10. Weaver Vale This should be a strong UKIP area and Labour only need a 1.5% swing here, easy gain. 11. Wirral West Another easy Labour gain. Sizeable LD vote to collapse and UKIP will nick votes from the Tories here. 99% chance of a change of hands here. 12. City of Chester This wasn't a hugely safe Labour seat back in their high points, so I think the Conservatives hang on. North West England roundup: Labour 56 (+9) Conservatives 15 (-7) Liberal Democrats 4 (-2) Running total(192 of 650 seats): Labour - 107 SNP - 34 Conservatives - 21 DUP - 9 Liberal Democrats - 8 Sinn Fein - 6 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 Independents - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Okay time to restart this. Obviously I'll have to go back and redo Scotland in light of changed times but I'll stick with my Wales/NI predictions Labour 30 DUP 9 Sinn Fein 6 Tories 4 Plaid 4 SDLP 2 Lib Dems 2 Independents 1 Now the England specific results in 2010 were Tories 297 (+92) Labour 191 (-87) Lib Dems 43 (-4) Greens 1 (+1) Speaker 1 Since then, the Tories have lost two by-elections to UKIP, one to Labour, and Labour lost one to Respect. For the purposes of this I'm going to assume Labour retain all 190 of their seats, the Tories retain the 203 that they've held prior to 2010 [both these numbers exclude seats they've lost in by-elections], and the Greens and speaker hold on. So basically the potential seats that could change hands are the 43 Lib Dem seats, the 92 seats the Tories gained in 2010 and the seats gained by UKIP/Galloway in by-elections George Galloway looks a dead cert to hold on, in terms of the UKIP seats I think Carswell holds on in Clacton but the Tories get Rochester and Strood back. To be continued.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Okay so now the 43 Liberal Democrat seats in England Holds: (26) 2. Cheadle (Lib/Tory marginal, Ashcroft has them holding) 3. Hazel Grove 5. Southport 6. Westmoreland & Lonsdale 7. Bath 8. Bristol West 9. Cheltenham 10. North Cornwall 14. St Ives 17. Thornbury & Yate 18. Torbay 20. Yeovil 21. Bermondsey & Old Southwark 23. Carsharlton & Wallington 25. Kingston & Surbiton 26. Sutton & Cheam 27. Twickenham 31. Leeds North West 32. Sheffield Hallam (Clegg holds on by a few hundred votes) 33. Birmingham Yardley 35. Cambridge 36. Colchester 37. North Norfolk 39. Eastbourne 40. Eastleigh 41. Lewes Labour gains: 7 1. Burnley 4. Manchester Withington 22. Brent Central 24. Hornsey & Woodgreen 29. Redcar 30. Bradford East 38. Norwich South Tory gains: 10 11. North Devon 12. Mid Dorset and North Poole 13. St Austell and Newquay 15. Somerton & Frome 16. Taunton Deane 19. Wells 28. Berwick-upon-Tweed 34. Solihull 42. Portsmouth South 43. Chippenham So that gives us, from the 43 Lib Dems in England, 26 holds, 10 Tory gains and 7 Labour gains. Labour 227 Tories 216 Liberal Democrats 28 DUP 9 Sinn Fein 6 Plaid Cymru 4 SDLP 2 Respect 1 UKIP 1 Greens 1 Speaker 1 Independents 1 This leaves the 2010 Tory gains in England and the 59 Scottish seats To be continued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Here we go with the East Central: 7. Perth & North Perthshire Having done a bit of research on this seat I think it might buck the national trend a bit. It certainly won't be changing hands, but I don't think there will be a major swing to the SNP. Local farmers are said to be infuriated at Scottish government policy and the Tories are heavily electioneering here, so I think the SNP majority will stay the same, maybe even fall a little. I'll eat my hat if it's anything other than an SNP hold, though. 8. North East Fife Sir Ming standing down makes this seat open season for the SNP. They need a 15% swing from the Lib Dems, which seems easy in a student constituency, but St Andrews is no normal university. Still, there's a decent Labour base for them to pinch votes from and the Tories aren't starting from a good enough base to challenge here. SNP gain and a remarkable win from 4th place. 9. Dunfermline and West Fife The SNP won the Holyrood seat here in 2011, only to be turfed out in the resulting by-election. Bit of a No voting area this one, they'll leapfrog the Lib Dems into second place but I foresee a Labour hold here. 10. Glenrothes The incumbent is standing down and the SNP hold the Holyrood seat here but they'd need a remarkable 21% swing to win this seat. I think Labour hold this on a much reduced majority. 11. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Kirkcaldy is said to have voted Yes. With Gordon Brown stepping down the SNP could throw a lot at this seat, but Cowdenbeath seems to be one of the areas where Labour is still doing okay. I think Labour hold this but once again the SNP could get within a few hundred votes. Seats: Labour 3, SNP 2 (+1), Lib Dems 0 (-1) Total seats: Labour 5 (-1), SNP 4 (+3), Tories 2 (+1), Lib Dems 0 (-3) What the papers will say: Labour hold on to their 3 Fife seats despite massive swings to the SNP, Wishart holds on despite trend bucking swing, Lib Dem meltdown in St Andrews. Hopefully even Cowdengelly is coming round to the fact that Labour are fucking hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Given that the likes of Curran, Sarwar and the Alexander's are likely gone now, what scalp would you want most between Mundell Murphy Carmichael ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Murphy would be hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Given that the likes of Curran, Sarwar and the Alexander's are likely gone now, what scalp would you want most between Mundell Murphy Carmichael ??? Mundell. Would be great to see the last tory gone, but last on the list Carmichael. He's already penned his resignation letter some time ago saying that he is already looking at a career outside of politics. Seeing Murphy papped out Seeing Murphy papped out Seeing Murphy papped out Seeing Murphy papped out Seeing Murphy papped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Murphy would be hilarious. Agreed. That would be a Portillo moment. Maybe we'd find out that Jum was into trains too. They could make programmes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicero Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 1. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale David Mundell returns to defend the only Tory seat in Scotland. The SNP are a distant fourth here and this area returned a strong No vote in September. Ladbrokes list Mundell as a 2/5 favourite, with the SNP at 3/1, however in reality I don't give the SNP anywhere close to a 25% chance of winning here, the bookies are simply shortening the odds to protect against a total landslide. The SNP should be a good bet to win a much increased share of the vote, leapfrogging the Lib Dems and possibly Labour as well, but my prediction for this seat is a relatively easy Conservative hold How things have changed in a couple of months. SNP and Tories on 34% in the opinion polls. Although Mundell is still 1/2 favourite with Emma Harper closing in at 13/8. Having voted SNP in every election since I moved down here over a dozen years ago, I would never have believed that I may be voting for a winning candidate. It will be interesting to see if there will be any tactical voting from Labour to the Tories. Would anybody admit to doing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 There were actually 95 Tory gains in England in 2010, so excluding the 95 #gainz and 59 Scottish seats, we have Labour - 227 Conservatives - 215 Liberal Democrats - 28 Democratic Unionists - 9 Sinn Fein - 6 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 UKIP - 1 Greens - 1 Respect - 1 Independents - 1 Speaker - 1 496 of 650 seats factored in Now to filter out those 95 gains Tory holds: 1. Battersea 2. Blackpool North & Cleveleys 3. Brigg & Goole 4. Burton 5. Bury North 6. Calder Valley 7. Carlisle 8. Castle Point 9. Chatham & Aylesford 10. Chester 11. Cleethorpes 12. Colne Valley 13. Cornwall South East 14. Crawley 15. Crewe & Nantwich 16. Dartford 17. South Derbyshire 18. Dorset South 19. Dover 20. Elmet & Rothwell 21. Gillingham & Rainham 22. Gloucester 23. Great Yarmouth 24. Harlow 25. Harrogate & Knaresborough 26. Hastings & Rye 27. Hereford & South Herefordshire 28. High Peak 29. Keighley 30. Leicestershire North West 31. Milton Keynes North 32. Milton Keynes South 33. Newton Abbot 34. Norwich North 35. Nuneaton 36. Oxford West & Abingdon 37. Pendle 38. Portsmouth North 39. Reading West 40. Ritchmond Park 41. Romsey & Southampton North 42. Rossendale & Darwen 43. Rugby 44. South Basildon & East Thurrock 45. South Ribble 46. Stafford 47. Stevenage 48. Stourbridge 49. North Swindon 50. Tamworth 52. Truro & Falmouth 53. Warwick & Leamington 54. Winchester 55. Wyre Forest 56. York Outer Labour gains: 1. Amber Valley 2. Bedford 3. Brentford & Isleworth 4. Brighton Kempton 5. Bristol North West 6. Broxtowe 7. Cannock Chase 8. Corby 9. Dewsbury 10. Dudley South 11. Ealing Central & Acton 12. Erewash 13. Halesowen & Rowley Regis 14. Harrow East 15. Hendon 16. Hove 17. Ipswich 18. Kingswood 19. Lancaster & Fleetwood 20. Lincoln 21. Loughborough 22. Morecambe & Lunesdale 23. Northampton North 24. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 25. Pudsey 26. Redditch 27. Sherwood 28. Stockton South 29. Stroud 30. South Swindon 31. Croydon Central 32. Thurrock 33. Warrington South 34. Warwickshire North 35. Watford 36. Waveney 37. Weaver Vale 38. Wolverhampton South West 39. Worcester UKIP gains: 1. South Thanet So that gives us final figures excluding Scotland Conservatives - 270 Labour - 266 Liberal Democrats - 28 Democratic Unionists - 9 Sinn Fein - 6 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 UKIP - 2 Greens - 1 Respect - 1 Independents - 1 Speaker - 1 Will Labour be able to hold enough of their 41 seats in Scotland to emerge as comfortably the largest party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Scotland; Take 2 First of all, everyone and their granny knows the SNP are holding their 6 seats. My mistake last time round was ignoring the 2011 result. A lot has been made of how Scots vote differently in UK elections to Scottish elections, but it's converging now. I still think Mundell keeps his seat, Moore's seat goes blue, Carmichael & Kennedy hold their seats, but the other eight LD seats all go yellow. Now, the 41 Labour seats SNP gains: 1. Aberdeen North 2. Aberdeen South 3. Airdrie & Shotts 4. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 5. Ayrshire Central 6. Ayrshire North & Arran 7. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 8. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 9. West Dunbartonshire 10. Dundee West 11. Dumfermline & West Fife 12. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 13. East Lothian 14. Edinburgh East 15. Edinburgh North & Leith 16. Edinburgh South 17. Edinburgh South West 18. Falkirk 19. Glasgow Central 20. Glasgow East 21. Glasgow North 22. Glasgow North West 23. Glasgow South 24. Glasgow South West 25. Glenrothes 26. Inverclyde 27. Kilmarnock & Loudoun 28. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 29. Lanark & Hamilton East 30. Linlithgow & Falkirk East 31. Livingston 32. Midlothian 33. Motherwell & Wishaw 34. Ochil & South Perthshire 35. Paisley & Renfrewshire North 36. Paisley & Renfrewshire South 37. Rutherglen & Hamilton West 38. Stirling Holds: 1. Dumfries & Galloway 2. Glasgow North East 3. East Renfrewshire Final Scotland prediction: SNP - 52 Labour - 3 Conservatives - 2 Lib Dems - 2 Final seat forecast: Conservative Party - 273 Labour Party - 269 Scottish National Party - 52 Liberal Democrats - 30 Democratic Unionists - 9 Sinn Fein - 6 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 UKIP - 2 Greens - 1 Respect - 1 Independents - 1 Speaker - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 I'd be rather delighted with all of that coming to pass. I'm sure these tactical voting weirdos will push a few seats back to the incumbents however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 U reckon 52 SNP Mr Bairn. Bit high for me. Think 42ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QPSAFalkirkFirm Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Splendid piece of work Mr Bairn. Putting yourself out there like this represents the courage and ambition that all of us who think Scotland can be better would like to see more of. Well done sir. Your initial objective was definitely achieved. In the wake of Indy I piped up on here that our best response would be to attack this election to try and get 30 SNP Members and my comments were mildly dismissed. Here we are now debating whether it will be 42 or 52 seats. Anything in that range was unimaginable a year ago. These are special times. Best individual post goes to Renton for his hilarious portrait of the Cowdengelly triangle. Priceless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Scotland; Take 2 First of all, everyone and their granny knows the SNP are holding their 6 seats. My mistake last time round was ignoring the 2011 result. A lot has been made of how Scots vote differently in UK elections to Scottish elections, but it's converging now. I still think Mundell keeps his seat, Moore's seat goes blue, Carmichael & Kennedy hold their seats, but the other eight LD seats all go yellow. Now, the 41 Labour seats SNP gains: 1. Aberdeen North 2. Aberdeen South 3. Airdrie & Shotts 4. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock 5. Ayrshire Central 6. Ayrshire North & Arran 7. Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill 8. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 9. West Dunbartonshire 10. Dundee West 11. Dumfermline & West Fife 12. East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 13. East Lothian 14. Edinburgh East 15. Edinburgh North & Leith 16. Edinburgh South 17. Edinburgh South West 18. Falkirk 19. Glasgow Central 20. Glasgow East 21. Glasgow North 22. Glasgow North West 23. Glasgow South 24. Glasgow South West 25. Glenrothes 26. Inverclyde 27. Kilmarnock & Loudoun 28. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 29. Lanark & Hamilton East 30. Linlithgow & Falkirk East 31. Livingston 32. Midlothian 33. Motherwell & Wishaw 34. Ochil & South Perthshire 35. Paisley & Renfrewshire North 36. Paisley & Renfrewshire South 37. Rutherglen & Hamilton West 38. Stirling Holds: 1. Dumfries & Galloway 2. Glasgow North East 3. East Renfrewshire Final Scotland prediction: SNP - 52 Labour - 3 Conservatives - 2 Lib Dems - 2 Final seat forecast: Conservative Party - 273 Labour Party - 269 Scottish National Party - 52 Liberal Democrats - 30 Democratic Unionists - 9 Sinn Fein - 6 Plaid Cymru - 4 SDLP - 2 UKIP - 2 Greens - 1 Respect - 1 Independents - 1 Speaker - 1 Will be interesting to see how accurate this is come May 8th. I suppose you really cannot rule anything out just now, but I can't see the SNP taking Carmichael's seat. I'm not so sure Kennedy will hold his seat, the man has issues just now and going on his QT performance people might just want someone else as their MP. Think the Tories will hold onto Mundell's seat and maybe take Moore's seat also. I've got a feeling Glasgow will go completely for the SNP. Some big majorities to over come but I don't think Labour will hold a single Glasgow seat. Edit to add -: Murphy will lose his seat too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrshireTon Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 48. Inverclyde I have a tough time calling this seat. On one hand, this was the 5th best region for Yes in September, losing by just 86 votes. On the other, the SNP couldn't take this seat in a 2011 by-election when they were riding a wave of momentum post 2011 election. Hold a gun to my head and I'll say Labour hold purely because they won the by-election really easily, but this is one of the seats I have the least feel for in all of Scotland. This is about as safe a seat as Labour could have. The proverbial "monkey with a red rosette" would win this seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 11, 2015 Author Share Posted April 11, 2015 This is about as safe a seat as Labour could have. The proverbial "monkey with a red rosette" would win this seat. Maybe 10 years ago. The monkeys wear yellow rosettes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 If the SNP are going to be getting in the region of 50 seats then they'll be taking Kennedy's seat at a canter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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