Fide Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My pal's doing a lot of work for Tudhope, but Whitford is an extremely compelling candidate and Donohoe is manifestly incapable of standing up to a serious challenge. All it'll take is a couple of trips back to Irvine for Sturgeon. Donohoe is one of a very few Scottish MP's to have no Twitter presence. Also, Central Ayrshire SNP are doing some fairly hardcore leafletting and doorstepping. I do hope Donohoe is out a job come 8th May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My pal's doing a lot of work for Tudhope, but Whitford is an extremely compelling candidate and Donohoe is manifestly incapable of standing up to a serious challenge. All it'll take is a couple of trips back to Irvine for Sturgeon. Does your mates surname start with an M? Sturgeon is going to be in Irvine soon. Don't know if she'll hit the streets though but she is definitely in Irvine soon. Would be interesting to know who pulls rank in that situation. Mum and Dad or the First Minister! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintonfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 nicola has said she will be out campaigning in all constituency's, i can see her doing a fair bit in irvine alongside her mum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gonna try and bash through the remaining Scottish constituencies tonight, then will do Wales and NI next week and then go on to try and predict all 500+ English seats, one region at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gonna try and bash through the remaining Scottish constituencies tonight, then will do Wales and NI next week and then go on to try and predict all 500+ English seats, one region at a time Good man.... but shld you not be out getting pished and trying to get yer hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 The penultimate region in Scotland is Ayrshire & Renfrewshire 45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Local councillor Corri Wilson could put up a good fight for the SNP here, aided by the Sturgeon bounce in her home area. Having said that, this is one of those seats with a large Tory base and almost no Lib Dem voters to pinch. I can't see the SNP achieving the 14.5% swing they need here. Labour hold 46. Ayrshire Central This one is a almost a carbon copy of the previous seat but with less Tories and more Lib Dems. I think the SNP will have more success in Ayrshire at large as opposed to in Ayr itself. This will be close but I'm giving it to the Nats. 47. Ayrshire North & Arran This area is the best part of Ayrshire for the SNP historically, and for Yes last September. Katy Clark is one of the more popular Labour MPs, but I think she's gone. 48. Inverclyde I have a tough time calling this seat. On one hand, this was the 5th best region for Yes in September, losing by just 86 votes. On the other, the SNP couldn't take this seat in a 2011 by-election when they were riding a wave of momentum post 2011 election. Hold a gun to my head and I'll say Labour hold purely because they won the by-election really easily, but this is one of the seats I have the least feel for in all of Scotland. 49. Kilmarnock & Loudoun Yeah I like the SNP here. From what I've heard Cathy Jamieson is one of the scalps the SNP really want, and again there could be a Sturgeon bounce across Ayrshire. 50. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Labour hold. They are more likely to hang on here than in its twin seat, IMO. 51. Paisley & Renfewshire South Stunning SNP gain and Douglas Alexander joins his namesake Danny in the dole queue. Paisley itself actually voted Yes in the referendum, and South Renfrewshire was less strongly though than the remainder of the county. The SNP are going to throw resources at this potential Portillo moment and it's all over for Douglas. 52. East Renfrewshire This is the safest seat in Scotland for Labour now. Unthinkable 20 years ago. Ayrshire & Renfrewshire roundup Seats: Labour 4(-4), SNP 4 (+4) Total seats: SNP 30 (+24), Labour 18 (-16), Lib Dems 2 (-9), Conservatives 2 (+1) What the papers will say: Scotland's richest seat is now Labour's safest, let's just think about that for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Good man.... but shld you not be out getting pished and trying to get yer hole? Still a bit hungover from the last couple of nights tbh. Us uni students are more midweek drinkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Really can't see Cathy Jamieson losing from a 50%+ majority tbh. I don't know what you mean by a sturgeon bounce, is it cos she's from Ayrshire that you think Ayrshire seats will be more likely to vote for SNP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 And to finish off, here comes Glasgow 53. Glasgow Central This is another area that could feel a Sturgeon bounce because it falls in to her Holyrood seat. Sarwar is toast and the SNP will gain this one. 54. Glasgow East The SNP have a history here and an even more stunning victory than 2008 is on the cards. 55. Glasgow North-East Labour hold this one as Ashcroft's polls suggested. Just too much work for the SNP to do and Anne McLaughlin is good at losing elections. 56. Glasgow North I think we're looking at another SNP gain here. Massive Lib Dem vote to move over to the SNP and I think Glasgow might be a high point for the LAB > SNP swing anyway. 57. Glasgow North West Labour to hang on to this one. 58. Glasgow South SNP gain in another area of Sturgeon bounce. Tom Harris is yet another high profile scalp for the SNP. 59. Glasgow South West Labour hold here for Ian Davidson. The Lib Dem vote here is tiny and I just can't see them swinging nearly 25% straight from Labour to the SNP. Glasgow roundup Seats: SNP 4 (+4), Labour 3 (-3) Total seats: SNP 34 (+28), Labour 21 (-20), Lib Dems 2 (-9), Conservatives 2 (+2) What the papers will say: SNP win back Glasgow East, win half of the other Glasgow seats So that concludes my Scotland predictions. Stunning night for the SNP, winning over half the seats. Labour lose nearly half of their 41 and the Lib Dem group is reduced to Kennedy and Carmichael. The Tories will be relatively happy doubling their seat numbers in Scotland and seeing Labour annihilated, but the night belongs to the SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sandra Osborne has been Ayr's MP for almost my entire life yet I'm not sure I'd even recognise her if she passed me in the street. She's ridiculously anonymous and is always nowhere to be found every time a big local issue crops up that she should be all over. This is the first time I can ever recall her doing some serious campaigning for re-election, so the SNP at least have her running scared, though I'm inclined to agree that it might be a bridge too far for them. North Ayrshire is an interesting one. It was almost 50/50 in the referendum so there are a lot of potential SNP voters there, but Katy Clark is pretty popular and I imagine she'll carry quite a significant personal vote. Being pretty left wing helps but she does seem to genuinely care about her constituents and if she were my local MP I'd seriously consider voting for her in spite of the fact that she's Labour. Central Ayrshire and Kilmarnock & Loudoun should be big targets for the SNP. Brian Donohoe is a complete dick and I'd love to see him turfed out, and Cathy Jamieson would be a good scalp as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The penultimate region in Scotland is Ayrshire & Renfrewshire 45. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock Local councillor Corri Wilson could put up a good fight for the SNP here, aided by the Sturgeon bounce in her home area. Having said that, this is one of those seats with a large Tory base and almost no Lib Dem voters to pinch. I can't see the SNP achieving the 14.5% swing they need here. Labour hold 46. Ayrshire Central This one is a almost a carbon copy of the previous seat but with less Tories and more Lib Dems. I think the SNP will have more success in Ayrshire at large as opposed to in Ayr itself. This will be close but I'm giving it to the Nats. What Corri Wilson has is a massive team behind her. She was the lead during the referendum for the area and everyone has stuck with her and are willing to get out and do what is required. Utterly loyal and utterly committed. She is a massively popular figure and will work tirelessly, as will the activists. The biggest battle is probably getting out to all the villages. The constituency is almost 1000 square miles. The Tories may have a reasonable starting point but they aren't going to increase their vote and I've never heard of the candidate. Lives in the area but that is about it. Cumnock and Doon Valley used to be your classic red monkey heartland. Indeed Foulkes (Yes this area used to elect George Foulkes) had the largest majority in the house at the time. But it voted SNP in 2011 and there was about 300 folks at a rally in Cumnock on Wednesday night. So there are plenty of votes to be won and plenty people out there to win them. Girvan and Maybole may not be as easy to crack however. I'll not mince my words, Sandra Osborne is a greeting faced wee cow and it is about time she was kicked out on her arse. I'm not going to predict a win, but there is a really good chance. Osborne is shitting herself that is for sure (I have that on good authority). 13400 between SNP and Labour is a big ask, but they are giving it their absolute everything, and they are getting some decent canvassing returns from some unexpected areas, so fingers crossed. In Central Ayrshire, I guess it really depends on how loyal donohoes voters are. His election agent has already made a gaffe by signing up to an SNP event (I still haven't made my mind up whether it was deliberate or not though) but they are making their first appearance out in Irvine this morning. Philippa is a smart cookie and popular and very well known. So it's game on. One thing is for sure, Donohoe will give us plenty ammunition to use. He is for everything that is unpopular, pay rises etc and with his bizarre claim the the Russian Navy are sailing up and down the Clyde and aircraft are breaching UK airspace it will be easy to highlight why he may not be good as MP. Whatever happens expect plenty of ESS-ENN-PEE BAD to be flying from the two Labour candidates. That is pretty much the standard of their debate. Osborne in particular has a nervous breakdown inducing hatred of the SNP. The other two Ayrshire seats I don't know much about, but I will comfortably predict both going Yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Quick round up of the Northern Irish seats now The DUP gain Belfast East back from Alliance Belfast North, South & West held by DUP, SDLP and Sinn Fein respectively The Democratic Unionists hold their three seats in Antrim SDLP hold South Down, and the independent MP in North Down holds her seat Sinn Fein hold South Tyrone, which they won with a majority of just 4 votes in 2010, and they also hold West Tyrone Londonderry stays DUP Sinn Fein pinch Foyle away from the SDLP Lagan Valley stays DUP Sinn Fein hold Mid Ulster as well as Newry & Armagh Jim Shannan holds Strangford for the Democratic Unionists, as does David Simpson in Upper Bann So our running totals after 77 of 650 seats predicted: Scottish National Party 34 Labour Party 21 Democratic Unionist Party 9 Sinn Fein 6 Conservative Party 2 Liberal Democrats 2 SDLP 2 Independents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Quick round up of the Northern Irish seats now The DUP gain Belfast East back from Alliance Belfast North, South & West held by DUP, SDLP and Sinn Fein respectively The Democratic Unionists hold their three seats in Antrim SDLP hold South Down, and the independent MP in North Down holds her seat Sinn Fein hold South Tyrone, which they won with a majority of just 4 votes in 2010, and they also hold West Tyrone Londonderry stays DUP Sinn Fein pinch Foyle away from the SDLP Lagan Valley stays DUP Sinn Fein hold Mid Ulster as well as Newry & Armagh Jim Shannan holds Strangford for the Democratic Unionists, as does David Simpson in Upper Bann So our running totals after 77 of 650 seats predicted: Scottish National Party 34 Labour Party 21 Democratic Unionist Party 9 Sinn Fein 6 Conservative Party 2 Liberal Democrats 2 SDLP 2 Independents 1 Sturgeon in the drivers seat for No. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quentin Taranbino Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Could that technically happen? If SNP were to win every seat in Scotland and then all the other seats were split between all the other parties running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The Tories may have a reasonable starting point The Tory base in the area, however, is limited to a tiny pocket south of Ayr where all the money is. They can't actually rely on any votes from outside that area. I'd have loved to see a breakdown of the Yes vote in Alloway and Doonfoot actually. There will be far bigger swings on the day than 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Could that technically happen? If SNP were to win every seat in Scotland and then all the other seats were split between all the other parties running Sturgeon is not running for westminster, so no... but King Salmond could be PM..... scenes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffenThinMint Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 50. Paisley & Renfrewshire North Labour hold. They are more likely to hang on here than in its twin seat, IMO. 51. Paisley & Renfewshire South Stunning SNP gain and Douglas Alexander joins his namesake Danny in the dole queue. Paisley itself actually voted Yes in the referendum, and South Renfrewshire was less strongly though than the remainder of the county. The SNP are going to throw resources at this potential Portillo moment and it's all over for Douglas. Poor, poor analysis: Sheridan is finished in Paisley North because he spends more time trying to save Rangers than doing any constituency work & even the Linwood muppets have finally woken up to the fact. Any hopes of Paisley South however are zero as the local party for unfathomable reasons put Mhari Black - some daft wee student - up as the candidate who has already blown any chance of winning from posting anti-Celtic stuff on the internet. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/revealed-what-snp-candidate-paisley-5118483 It's those Celtic supporting types - a large block of whom will have been propping up Labour locally for years - she needed to appeal to. No chance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The Tory base in the area, however, is limited to a tiny pocket south of Ayr where all the money is. They can't actually rely on any votes from outside that area. I'd have loved to see a breakdown of the Yes vote in Alloway and Doonfoot actually. There will be far bigger swings on the day than 15%. Nothing official, only going by the size of piles at the count, but it is safe to say, it wasn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Any hopes of Paisley South however are zero as the local party for unfathomable reasons put Mhari Black - some daft wee student - up as the candidate who has already blown any chance of winning from posting anti-Celtic stuff on the internet.http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/revealed-what-snp-candidate-paisley-5118483 It's those Celtic supporting types - a large block of whom will have been propping up Labour locally for years - she needed to appeal to. No chance now. If that's the best the Record can come up with, and if they're not going to run it in the fishwrap, then it's hard to see what impact it'll have. Murphy's been in the papers for months trying his hardest to suggest that the SNP hate Celtic and it's had no effect. Nothing official, only going by the size of piles at the count, but it is safe to say, it wasn't great. Not really surprised, but no matter. The seat as a whole no longer votes like them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintonfan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I have been out campaigning in saltcoats last 3 weeks and the snp support has been amazing, katy clark was out today with 2 comrades and you could see they were fighting a losing battle. on a day that was pouring with rain we had 6 out plus squads in kilwinning and largs. it is going to be tight but the swings I am seeing from all demographics is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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