Thumper Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Does Michael Connarty have a personal vote? I live in linlithgow and the guy is invisible. In the six years I lived there I was doorstepped twice: by Sandy Pagan running for a council seat as a Tory (coincidentally, he was my plumber) and by Fiona Hyslop. It's Salmond's home town. It's a Labour seat because that's what the default used to be rather than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmadaleKillie Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In the six years I lived there I was doorstepped twice: by Sandy Pagan running for a council seat as a Tory (coincidentally, he was my plumber) and by Fiona Hyslop. It's Salmond's home town. It's a Labour seat because that's what the default used to be rather than anything else. It isn't just Linlithgow itself he is missing from, I think I have seen him once in Armadale and that was the week before the last General Election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim McLean's Ghost Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If Pamela Nash holds onto her seat everyone should be ashamed of themselves. She barely hung on in the Labour party vote to remain as candidate and she will not be able to get people out to campaign for her because she is best example of the way Labour has treated its Scottish heartlands with contempt. People who know her have described her as thick and she was only elected the first time because she is a party sycophant who has slobbered all over the higher ups in Scottish Labour. I expect a lot of Labour voters to stay home while the SNP pick up a whole bunch of people who don't normally vote in the face of huge Labour majorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdhafc1874 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I wouldn't completely write off SNP chances in the Motherwell & Wishaw, Lanark & Hamilton East + Rutherglen & Hamilton West seats. Motherwell returned a Yes vote by reports + polls indicate the SNP are ahead. -- Jimmy Hood may well have been MP for his area for years but the people of Lanark & Hamilton East aren't going to forget his little rant during the referendum campaign that he would still vote No even if it was proven independence was in Scotland's best interests. He's also run up quite the expenses bill whilst not turning up to vote in Westminster the majority of the time. I think (and hope) the SNP candidate Angela Crawley has a good chance of turfing him out on his fat arse. -- Lastly my constituency - Rutherglen & Hamilton West Tom Greatrex will be difficult to beat - he's not lazy like Hood + hasn't done anything to piss off his constituents. His vote will probably hold up relatively well but I think the SNP will run him a lot closer than people might think they will as we have a good candidate in Margaret Ferrier - a SNP win here with a 20,000 majority to overcome would mean a very good night for the SNP. Hamilton branch of SNP has grown to about 2,000 although that is split between both constituencies - think Rutherglen branch grown to similar number so that's decent starting point in terms of definite SNP votes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I don't write them off in thise seats, I justt think the most likely outcome is a Labour hold. regardless, I wonder what odds I'd get on the SNP being within 2000 votes of first place in every single seat they don't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SNP are 2/5 favourites to win the Motherwell and Wishaw seat. First time I have studied every seat in depth in terms of the odds and the SNP are favourites to win an incredible 39 seats. Doesn't seem real but the Bookies rarely get it wrong as the Unionists loved telling us during the referendum. Happy fucking days, can't wait until election night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Gotta love Coral for this bet http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/scottish-conservative-mps-v-pandas Mon the Pandas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 SNP are 2/5 favourites to win the Motherwell and Wishaw seat. First time I have studied every seat in depth in terms of the odds and the SNP are favourites to win an incredible 39 seats. Doesn't seem real but the Bookies rarely get it wrong as the Unionists loved telling us during the referendum. Happy fucking days, can't wait until election night Interesting, when I glanced through them ages ago, the handicap for SNP seats was going up and up at incredible speed but the constituency markets weren't keeping up - SNP weren't favourite in many. Guess Ashscroft and other polls (plus folk piling in probably) has altered the constituency markets big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Is there a link that shows all the current odds for Scottish Seats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's on the odds checker website, just select the British Politics section. SNP are favourites to win Anne Begg's Aberdeen South seat #scenes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's on the odds checker website, just select the British Politics section. SNP are favourites to win Anne Begg's Aberdeen South seat #scenes Thanks Karl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Same analysis also showed that the Lib Dems are set to win just two seats in Scotland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Same analysis also showed that the Lib Dems are set to win just two seats in Scotland They'll win Orkney and Shetland at an absolute canter like they always have since nineteen canteen. As for the mainland, I'm really not even sure if Charlie Kennedy will keep his seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looked at the betting, there are only about 3 seats that will be labour v SNP that labour are favs.... lets hope the bookies are correct... if so it will be an utter plunderfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I very much look forward to Bairn's prediction for Central Ayrshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamonds2002 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If Pamela Nash holds onto her seat everyone should be ashamed of themselves. She barely hung on in the Labour party vote to remain as candidate and she will not be able to get people out to campaign for her because she is best example of the way Labour has treated its Scottish heartlands with contempt. People who know her have described her as thick and she was only elected the first time because she is a party sycophant who has slobbered all over the higher ups in Scottish Labour. I expect a lot of Labour voters to stay home while the SNP pick up a whole bunch of people who don't normally vote in the face of huge Labour majorities. I'd go along with this - she is an absolutely dreadful representative and I dont even live in Airdrie anymore. She even missed her own debtate in Westminister http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/shotts-mp-pamela-nash-faces-2544262 She has been described in some quarters as the worst Labour MP - which is a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintonfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I very much look forward to Bairn's prediction for Central Ayrshire. the problem there is that the greens have put up quite a good candidate in veronika tudhope. why they are trying to split the snp vote feck knows. it should be a 2 horse race between dr phillipa whitford and brian donohoe but with there being a wee green fly in the ointment it could give the red tory a few votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Jack D Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 the problem there is that the greens have put up quite a good candidate in veronika tudhope. why they are trying to split the snp vote feck knows. it should be a 2 horse race between dr phillipa whitford and brian donohoe but with there being a wee green fly in the ointment it could give the red tory a few votes It's amazing. In any sane political competition it should be an absolute no brainer (pardon the pun in Donohoes case) who to elect from a choice between Donohoe and Whitford! FPTP is the problem, not the Greens deciding to field candidates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Greens have as much right to field a candidate as anyone else. I would be surprised if they managed to get their vote into 4 figures. It is unfortunate and it will take votes away from the SNP, but that's democracy and I wish Veronika well. I don't share the point of view that the Greens candidate is a good one. I saw her speaking during the referendum and she very nervously delivered a poorly prepared and short speech. 9 months on from that speech she may have had some training and could turn out to be a very good candidate, but I can only go on my experience. Interestingly no Lib Dem candidate has been named/selected yet. Surely with 11 weeks to go they are cutting it fine. So maybe every single one of their votes will be up for grabs. If they do stand they are a shoe in to lose their deposit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thumper Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My pal's doing a lot of work for Tudhope, but Whitford is an extremely compelling candidate and Donohoe is manifestly incapable of standing up to a serious challenge. All it'll take is a couple of trips back to Irvine for Sturgeon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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