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Who's Going Down?


  

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We're definitely not out of it, but is it mental to suggest that Killie aren't out of the scrap for 11th either? Just noticed their last 2 games before the split are Aberdeen and Celtic, so they might well get 0 points.

If Motherwell and County beat St Mirren (not unlikely), Motherwell beat us, and County get a point from Saints (again, neither of these results total shocks), at the split it would be

Killie 38

Thistle 35 (Assuming we lose to Celtic as well)

County 35

Well 34

If your auntie had baws etc, and it would take Killie Hibsing it after the split, but not totally out of the question.

Some turnaround, if you'd have said to me in January we'd have 35 points 2 games before the split I'd have said we were pretty much safe as County and Motherwell would still be on about 18/19 points.

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My bottle is starting to crash, not quite at the Hibs team levels of crash but its in the mail I fear.

We're actually doing fine though, we've taken 10 points from our last 5 games and kept 3 clean sheets in a row, all against teams in the top 6. I suspect we'll lose at Parkhead on Wednesday but unless we pick up a load of injuries / suspensions or we get beat 10-0 then we should still be going into the Motherwell game in decent nick.

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County are on an incredible run. Are they ever going to lose again this season?

I still think Partick and Killie are safe, but if we cold win our next two games, this shit gets real.

I would be more confident of playing the **** or Hibs in a play off or Falkirk for that matter, given the upsurge in form, but would still rather finish 10th and root for any other side v (probably) the ****.

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Who knows? It should be at Fir Park as we've been in Dingwall twice already - but you can't second guess the fixtures "computer"...

Motherwell would have been "seeded" to finish top six, so the fact you've made the bottom six will probably mean there will be a three and one scenario somewhere.

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It's quite impressive that over 50% of the people polled thought we would finish bottom, many of them our own supporters. I started to doubt we would turn it around after St Mirren won at Victoria Park.

The run we are on currently is unbelievable. 19 points from 21 is formidable form, turning around the six point deficit to 11th to being ten points clear of 12th at this stage. We even could be safe from automatic relegation by the time the split occurs. With the form we are showing it isn't too far fetched to see us beat both St Johnstone and St Mirren in the next week.

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I had a quick look at the possible bottom 6 post-split fixtures this morning, on the basis that St Johnstone will make the top 6 and Killie won't, which left the 2 scenarios of Dundee and Hamilton filling the final place.

Attached a screenshot, but (if my workings are correct, which they may not be)

If Dundee finish bottom 6:

Motherwell and Thistle's fixtures will balance perfectly.

St Mirren and Dundee are only due 2 home games having played 17 home games pre-split but scheduled 3 teams to play at home, and Killie and County vice versa. If St Mirren go to Killie for a 3rd time and Dundee go to Dingwall everyone will end up with 19 home and 19 away.

If Hamilton finish bottom 6

Motherwell, County, and Hamilton's fixtures will balance perfectly.

St Mirren and Killie are in the same scenario as above, however Thistle are due 2 home games but scheduled to play 4 aways post split. That won't happen so St Mirren will come to Firhill a 3rd time (which is terrible news for us given our record against them at home compared to away). Killie will be left with 18 homes and 20 aways but I can't see a way everyone's fixtures can balance in this scenario.

post-107-0-12428600-1428240114_thumb.png

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I had a quick look at the possible bottom 6 post-split fixtures this morning, on the basis that St Johnstone will make the top 6 and Killie won't, which left the 2 scenarios of Dundee and Hamilton filling the final place.

Attached a screenshot, but (if my workings are correct, which they may not be)

If Dundee finish bottom 6:

Motherwell and Thistle's fixtures will balance perfectly.

St Mirren and Dundee are only due 2 home games having played 17 home games pre-split but scheduled 3 teams to play at home, and Killie and County vice versa. If St Mirren go to Killie for a 3rd time and Dundee go to Dingwall everyone will end up with 19 home and 19 away.

If Hamilton finish bottom 6

Motherwell, County, and Hamilton's fixtures will balance perfectly.

St Mirren and Killie are in the same scenario as above, however Thistle are due 2 home games but scheduled to play 4 aways post split. That won't happen so St Mirren will come to Firhill a 3rd time (which is terrible news for us given our record against them at home compared to away). Killie will be left with 18 homes and 20 aways but I can't see a way everyone's fixtures can balance in this scenario.

attachicon.gifpost split.png

So by your calculations will Motherwell play County at home or away post split?

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County should be at Fir Park after the split and to be honest, that's we would want to have them as I would see it as best chance of beating them. Should also be getting Partick Thistle and Killie at home should they fail to make top 6. Would also see us away to Dundee if they fail to make top 6 and St Mirren.

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