Alloa Athletic vs Queen of the South 27/12/14

[Skyline Drifter]

On a similar theme, am I right in saying that our first half record is a Hell of a lot better than our second half one this season?

I've not noticed but let's look:

Alloa 2-0 (1st half 2-0, 2nd half 0-0)

Dumbarton 4-0 (1-0, 3-0)

Livingston 1-1 (1-0, 0-1)

Rangers 2-4 (2-1, 0-3)

Falkirk 1-1, (0-0, 1-1)

Hibernian 1-0 (1-0, 0-0)

Cowdenbeath 1-2 (0-2, 1-0)

Hearts 0-3 (0-2, 0-1)

Raith Rovers 4-3 (1-0, 3-3)

Falkirk 3-0 (2-0, 1-0)

Livingston 2-2 (1-0, 1-2)

Dumbarton 3-0 (1-0, 2-0)

Hibernian 0-0 (0-0, 0-0)

Raith Rovers 2-0 (1-0, 1-0)

Hearts 1-4 (0-1, 1-3)

Rangers 2-0 (1-0, 1-0)

Cowdenbeath 1-2 (0-1, 1-1)

Alloa Athletic 1-1 (1-0, 0-1)

So, overall we have 8 wins, 5 draw and 5 losses for 29 points.

In 1st half football we were leading in 12, drawing twice and behind four times so would have had 38 points if the games had stopped at half time. Interestingly, we've been behind at half time just four times all season, twice to Hearts and twice to Cowdenbeath!

In 2nd half football we have won 6 second halves, drawn 6 and lost 6. In theory we have earned 24 points in second half football.

Of course it's difficult to look at such things in isolation, Second half football is corrupted by the half time score inevitably. If you are leading at half time you are much more likely to settle for what you have than chase the game more. Also, the second half results are sometimes meaningless. The fact we've picked up 4 "second half points" v Cowdenbeath for instance doesn't change the fact we lost both games. In short, I don't think comparing the first half to the second half is in itself particularly useful. Comparing the first half to the final scores probably is though and we're clearly worse off than we could have been based on 45 minute football.

We're 9 points worse off than we would have been on half time results. That's basically down to chucking away leads against Livi twice, Alloa once plus the loss at Ibrox. We've not come back from a half time deficit to get any points all season but as we've only trailed at half time four times, two of which were to Hearts, that's not entirely surprising. To be fair we've come back second half to equalise in two of the four games, though we eventually lost them anyway, and pushed Cowden all the way away too.So we probably don't want to be reading too much into it. All we're really saying at the end of all that analysis is we chucked away leads to Liv twice (thrice if you include the first cup game too). We already knew that without the statistics telling us!

[Monkey Tennis]

I've not noticed but let's look:

Alloa 2-0 (1st half 2-0, 2nd half 0-0)

Dumbarton 4-0 (1-0, 3-0)

Livingston 1-1 (1-0, 0-1)

Rangers 2-4 (2-1, 0-3)

Falkirk 1-1, (0-0, 1-1)

Hibernian 1-0 (1-0, 0-0)

Cowdenbeath 1-2 (0-2, 1-0)

Hearts 0-3 (0-2, 0-1)

Raith Rovers 4-3 (1-0, 3-3)

Falkirk 3-0 (2-0, 1-0)

Livingston 2-2 (1-0, 1-2)

Dumbarton 3-0 (1-0, 2-0)

Hibernian 0-0 (0-0, 0-0)

Raith Rovers 2-0 (1-0, 1-0)

Hearts 1-4 (0-1, 1-3)

Rangers 2-0 (1-0, 1-0)

Cowdenbeath 1-2 (0-1, 1-1)

Alloa Athletic 1-1 (1-0, 0-1)

So, overall we have 8 wins, 5 draw and 5 losses for 29 points.

In 1st half football we were leading in 12, drawing twice and behind four times so would have had 38 points if the games had stopped at half time. Interestingly, we've been behind at half time just four times all season, twice to Hearts and twice to Cowdenbeath!

In 2nd half football we have won 6 second halves, drawn 6 and lost 6. In theory we have earned 24 points in second half football.

Of course it's difficult to look at such things in isolation, Second half football is corrupted by the half time score inevitably. If you are leading at half time you are much more likely to settle for what you have than chase the game more. Also, the second half results are sometimes meaningless. The fact we've picked up 4 "second half points" v Cowdenbeath for instance doesn't change the fact we lost both games. In short, I don't think comparing the first half to the second half is in itself particularly useful. Comparing the first half to the final scores probably is though and we're clearly worse off than we could have been based on 45 minute football.

We're 9 points worse off than we would have been on half time results. That's basically down to chucking away leads against Livi twice, Alloa once plus the loss at Ibrox. We've not come back from a half time deficit to get any points all season but as we've only trailed at half time four times, two of which were to Hearts, that's not entirely surprising. To be fair we've come back second half to equalise in two of the four games, though we eventually lost them anyway, and pushed Cowden all the way away too.So we probably don't want to be reading too much into it. All we're really saying at the end of all that analysis is we chucked away leads to Liv twice (thrice if you include the first cup game too). We already knew that without the statistics telling us!

Thanks for the effort involved in that.

I think that the picture is quite telling though. If we're losing at half time, we lose. If we're winning, we don't necessarily win.

Any analysis does carry all the caveats you mention, but we do appear to be a side that weakens in later stages.

[palmy_cammy]

All of which links back to the earlier point about the strength of our bench for much of the season.

In the main our substitutions have basically been like for like replacements, rather than "game changers". Burns, McKenna and Paton each bring something a bit different to the table. Their return should allow us to be a bit more tactically flexible at the start of games, as well as giving us options from the bench.

I think we've become a bit stale recently with the same players in the same formation.

[Skyline Drifter]

Thanks for the effort involved in that. I think that the picture is quite telling though. If we're losing at half time, we lose. If we're winning, we don't necessarily win. Any analysis does carry all the caveats you mention, but we do appear to be a side that weakens in later stages.

Well as I tried to justify already, I don't really agree with that conclusion. That's an over-simplification and relies on a small sample for your conclusion.

There are fundamentally only four games all season where the half time result has not been the full time one. The two Livi games where we snatched draws from the jaws of victory, yesterday's draw at Alloa where only the completely biased would deny it was a fair result and the slight anomaly of having been ahead at half time at Ibrox.

I don't think we weakened in the later stages yesterday particularly, rather Alloa possibly edged the game all day and we were fortunate to have been ahead. Likewise we were pretty much played off the park second period at Ibrox with a makeshift midfield and ultimately Baird up front on his own. The two Livi results were badly thrown away. Nobody is arguing about that, but two games against the same team is not enough to make swingeing conclusions over IMO.

[Monkey Tennis]

Well as I tried to justify already, I don't really agree with that conclusion. That's an over-simplification and relies on a small sample for your conclusion.

There are fundamentally only four games all season where the half time result has not been the full time one. The two Livi games where we snatched draws from the jaws of victory, yesterday's draw at Alloa where only the completely biased would deny it was a fair result and the slight anomaly of having been ahead at half time at Ibrox.

I don't think we weakened in the later stages yesterday particularly, rather Alloa possibly edged the game all day and we were fortunate to have been ahead. Likewise we were pretty much played off the park second period at Ibrox with a makeshift midfield and ultimately Baird up front on his own. The two Livi results were badly thrown away. Nobody is arguing about that, but two games against the same team is not enough to make swingeing conclusions over IMO.

As I said, any analysis carries caveats, but a loose pattern does emerge - I think that's undeniable to be honest.

I think Cammy is also right in what he says about the limitations of our bench denying us later on in early season matches. This was certainly the case at Ibrox when we could do nothing to reverse the shift in momentum.

As you say, only four matches have shown this shift, but all four have been negative. It would be nice to see us shift some games in our favour when they're not going for us, initially.

[Skyline Drifter]

As you say, only four matches have shown this shift, but all four have been negative. It would be nice to see us shift some games in our favour when they're not going for us, initially.

Well yes but then as already pointed out we have only been behind four times at half time all season. Two of which were to the runaway league leaders who have dropped two draws all season. And we did fight back to level in one of those (briefly).

The two against Cowden both saw fightbacks even if they were ultimately fruitless. The conclusion you draw that we are offer no threat if behind at the break is harsh and in only one of the four did the opposition see it out without further concern.

[Monkey Tennis]

Well yes but then as already pointed out we have only been behind four times at half time all season. Two of which were to the runaway league leaders who haved dropped two points all season. And we did fight back to level in one of those (briefly).

The two against Cowden both saw fightbacks even if they were ultimately fruitless. The conclusion you draw that we are offer no threat if behind at the break is harsh and in only one of the four did the opposition see it out without further concern.

That's not quite my conclusion though, is it?

My conclusion is really that which I suspected when first posing the question a few hours ago, and which you've since kindly taken the trouble to confirm : namely that we tend this season, to do better during first halves than during the second halves of games.

Again, I think that's evident.

[Skyline Drifter]

That's not quite my conclusion though, is it?My conclusion is really that which I suspected when first posing the question a few hours ago, and which you've since kindly taken the trouble to confirm : namely that we tend this season, to do better during first halves than during the second halves of games.Again, I think that's evident.

Yes it is. However it is at least partially a self fulfilling conclusion. The fact the we have generally done so well in first halves makes it fairly inevitable that we will statistically do worse in second halves. There is very little scope for the opposite to occur. Cant say therefore that I am overly concerned by this revelation. I am more individually interested in our continual inability to hold a lead specifically against Livi.

[Monkey Tennis]

Yes it is. However it is at least partially a self fulfilling conclusion. The fact the we have generally done so well in first halves makes it fairly inevitable that we will statistically do worse in second halves. There is very little scope for the opposite to occur. Cant say therefore that I am overly concerned by this revelation. I am more individually interested in our continual inability to hold a lead specifically against Livi.

Right, apologies to everyone else about not dropping this, but your problem with us losing leads sounds a lot like my concern over how we seem to be stronger early on in matches than we are later.

You're right about the self fulfilling aspect of this, but despite the fact that we're doing alright this season, we're not doing so spectacularly brilliantly that occasions when we drop points are rare.

Taken as a whole, our results tend to break down as you've demonstrated, in such a way as to suggest that we do better at the start of matches than at the end.

That's all.

[Homer Thompson]

At least there appears to be a level of understanding now that yes he was crap for us but he's good for Alloa.

No. No one said that

[lyle be back]

Goalie 22

RB 19 CB 22 CB 19 LB 21

Pity couldn't hang on for the win hopefully we can defeat out bogey team next week cause we are dropping to many points to the bottom 3 teams, Falkirk starting to gain the momentum.

A good point that we should remember when having a go at the players - seven of the team were 22 or under on Saturday with one of the wise old heads being Danny at 24. Good young team with 3 being 19 (Kidd as well). Still learning as they mature together.