Possible Scenarios

[renton]

We need to accept the sovereign will of the Scottish people.

Unless its something we don't like, in which case we will carry on like a bunch of three year olds having a massive tantrum.

People accept the results, it doesn't mean they have to give up on their own beliefs however. Had the result been the mirror image, no doubt the No side would've been going through their own version of this - where pro Indy groups push for the broadest devolution possible, with a view to having another referendum 5 - 10 years down the line, anti-indy groups would no doubt now be pressuring for the closest possible analogy to Union as possible from Indy negotiations, with a view to winning a mandate to negotiate some other type of Union (or other close relationship with the rUK) 5 -10 years down the line post Indy as well.

Unfortunately for those who want a settled decision for all time, 45/55 either way was not going to deliver it. That's simply the reality of it: We are going to come back and do this again, not as soon as pro Indy folk would like but a lot sooner than anti indy folk would hope as well, and we'll keep doing it until one side or the other is reduced to an insignificant level of support.

[strichener]

Was just thinking similar.

It is like watching a 2 second clip on repeat. The only difference between them is that H_B will defend his inspportable position, whilst Reynard will move on to another thread never to be seen on the original thread again.

[MikeyWellFan]

[John Lambies Doos]

Was just thinking similar.

It is like watching a 2 second clip on repeat. The only difference between them is that H_B will defend his inspportable position, whilst Reynard will move on to another thread never to be seen on the original thread again.

U mean he will move onto another thread and Clarkston 5 will appear

[H_B]

Unfortunately for those who want a settled decision for all time, 45/55 either way was not going to deliver it.

Well, there was never going to be a "settled decision for all time".

55.3/44.7 was a complete and utter thrashing for Yes. A much worse result than they can have possibly imagined at the start, and certainly with a month to go. And worse still - was achieved on a massive turnout.

You are right though - had it been 70/30 it would have meant fewer "torch holders" kicking about, but there would still have been a few.

What it has done is end the question for a generation, which was all that was ever going to be the case.

[renton]

Well, there was never going to be a "settled decision for all time".

55.3/44.7 was a complete and utter thrashing for Yes. A much worse result than they can have possibly imagined at the start, and certainly with a month to go. And worse still - was achieved on a massive turnout.

You are right though - had it been 70/30 it would have meant fewer "torch holders" kicking about, but there would still have been a few.

What it has done is end the question for a generation, which was all that was ever going to be the case.

It's not a complete and utter thrashing, by no stretch of the imagination. It's certainly not ended it for 'a generation' either.

edited to add: When it all kicked off learned commentators expected Yes getting over 40% as a massive success, and certinaly BT were trying their damndest to keep them sub 40% as well. It wasn't close enough to force Westminster into Devo max in one go, it is close enough to keep it a very live issue.

[John Lambies Doos]

It's not a complete and utter thrashing, by no stretch of the imagination. It's certainly not ended it for 'a generation' either.

edited to add: When it all kicked off learned commentators expected Yes getting over 40% as a massive success, and certinaly BT were trying their damndest to keep them sub 40% as well. It wasn't close enough to force Westminster into Devo max in one go, it is close enough to keep it a very live issue.

I actually think it has and will force WM into Devo Max. The fact that the 3 amigos literally sh@t themselves causing them to shoot themselves in the foot with the vow plus Broons preaching means that Devo Max is certainly on cards

If not, referendum 2 within next 5 yrs.

[renton]

I actually think it has and will force WM into Devo Max. The fact that the 3 amigos literally sh@t themselves causing them to shoot themselves in the foot with the vow plus Broons preaching means that Devo Max is certainly on cards

If not, referendum 2 within next 5 yrs.

I think, if your really, really lucky Smith might suggest something between the Greens and Lib dem submissions, which would give ScotGov significant powers but still with leaving WM significant latitude to shat all over us, that is, if whatever Smith comes up with is enacted in full by the next government - getting that's a huge challenge in itself.

[Mr Bairn]

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014_11_01_archive.html

This guy has looked at what the bookies are predicting for every seat and come up with:

Lab: 308

Con: 266.5

LD: 31

UKIP: 6

SNP: 15.5

PC: 3

Green: 1

NB. There's one seat where SNP and Con were joint favourite at the time of his analysis. Also seats in Northern Ireland weren't included And this was done just before the recent polls showing surge in support for the SNP.

My predictions (pretty far removed from what I would actually like to see happening, but still...):

- Both SNP and UKIP will do *quite well*, although neither matching the sort of polling that they're getting at the moment, and SNP ending up with somewhere around 15-18 seats. Wondering if people will swing back towards Labour and the Tories by the time the election comes around.

- Labour to win the election in terms of seats, but not by total votes cast. Labour forming either a minority government or coalition/supply and confidence with the LDs and whichever way the whole thing ending up pretty weak and unpopular overall.

- The Tories regrouping under Boris Johnson, getting the UKIP waverers back on board, and winning with a comfortable majority in 2020.

If this happens (giving AWK to the SNP):

Labour would have slightly more seats than UKIP and the coalition combined. Realistically, there is no scenario here which won't see Labour in government.

You would either have:

Labour minority (Most likely imo)

Labour/Lib Dem coalition (Most unlikely imo, unless Clegg loses his seat and a they elect a more left wing leader)

Labour/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP coalition (Quite unlikely because it would be unstable and the smaller parties would demand a lot)

[HaikuHibee]

Indy won't go soon. No attempt to win back yessers, more and more will join.

[Elixir]

Could there possibly be a referendum on "devo max" in the next Scottish parliament depending on what happens at Westminster?

As for the referendum result, Quebec nationalists were pumped 60%-40% and then came a mere baw hair away only 15 years later.

[Kyle]

Could there possibly be a referendum on "devo max" in the next Scottish parliament depending on what happens at Westminster?

As for the referendum result, Quebec nationalists were pumped 60%-40% and then came a mere baw hair away only 15 years later.

If Devo max is an option given to the Scottish people, I suspect a huge majority would vote for it.

I suspect a move towards devo max would involve all of the UK if it was to happen. There certainly appears to be an appetite for such.

[John Lambies Doos]

If Devo max is an option given to the Scottish people, I suspect a huge majority would vote for it.

I suspect a move towards devo max would involve all of the UK if it was to happen. There certainly appears to be an appetite for such.

Defo from the people in all constituent countries... but not from politicians. They fear falling off the gravy train esp labour. Disgusting party imo

[Kyle]

Christ, don't see me off on a labour rant again.

[Dipped Flake]

The huge problem that the SNP faces is that (thanks to them) the Union now has a legitimate mandate for it's existence which totally destroys their old argument of "parcel of rogues" and "bought and sold for English gold" pish they used to trot out like the fuckwits they are, and any attempt to end it would be running roughshod over the "sovereign will" of the Scottish people.

We remain the only part of the UK to formally ratify our membership of the union. That must REALLY hurt the NCC. Salmond himself called on everyone to respect "the sovereign will" of the "Scottish people". Maybe the fat f**k should try doing this himself along with his collection of moronic, simpering fucktards?

wow, so much anger from the winners in the referendum. I love it that the britnats are seething while we look forward.

[Dipped Flake]

If Devo max is an option given to the Scottish people, I suspect a huge majority would vote for it.

I suspect a move towards devo max would involve all of the UK if it was to happen. There certainly appears to be an appetite for such.

agree. Westminster is in terminal decline now, at least in its present form.

[Adamski]

If this happens (giving AWK to the SNP):

Labour would have slightly more seats than UKIP and the coalition combined. Realistically, there is no scenario here which won't see Labour in government.

You would either have:

Labour minority (Most likely imo)

Labour/Lib Dem coalition (Most unlikely imo, unless Clegg loses his seat and a they elect a more left wing leader)

Labour/SNP/PC/Green/SDLP coalition (Quite unlikely because it would be unstable and the smaller parties would demand a lot)

I don't see a Lab/LD coalition as that unlikely a scenario, although I agree that one way or another it would probably involve someone other than Clegg leading the Lib Dems.

[Gordon EF]

55.3/44.7 was a complete and utter thrashing for Yes. A much worse result than they can have possibly imagined at the start, and certainly with a month to go. And worse still - was achieved on a massive turnout.

Even you don't believe that. To win, Yes only needed to turn 5.4% of voters from No to Yes, which really isn't a collosal ask.

Nutters aside, a year ago, I think most folk would have said that was a respectable result for Yes. Obviously, with a onth to go, expectations were raised on the Yes side and that result would have been a dissapointment.

Ultimately, if there had been a snap referendum at any point during 2012 or 2013, Yes probably would have got a thrashing. At the start, there was a big gap, that closed to a significant but not insurmountable gap.

[lionel hutz]

TBF I think SNP will realistically have 25-35 seats, and will also spend the most in the campaign. This will defo stop Labour Majority. Labour will be just sub 300. Tories ~260. Lib Dems will get the same as 1992 - 20. UKIP and Greens will have about 5 each. NI Parties I have no clue about.

Yes, there will be another referendum within 10 years

[John Lambies Doos]

TBF I think SNP will realistically have 25-35 seats, and will also spend the most in the campaign. This will defo stop Labour Majority. Labour will be just sub 300. Tories ~260. Lib Dems will get the same as 1992 - 20. UKIP and Greens will have about 5 each. NI Parties I have no clue about.

Yes, there will be another referendum within 10 years

5 years HTH