Dipped Flake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Now that you've attempted the ad hominem, would you care to turn the vastness of your intellect to a fairly simple question? Or do you want to walk hand in hand with a bunch of plook faced scheme goblins and make a twat of yourself alongside them? i know it must be hard for you to read what others post so here it is again. The clue is in these big numbers 2017/18. To help you out these numbers relate to a time in the future, currently 2 to 3 years away. If you could fly off in your wee time machine and come back and let us know how much lower or higher the oil price was that would be nice For example, the Scottish Government Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin made forecasts for2017/18 based on an oil price of $113 dollars a barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 So anyway... Any member of the NCC got a clue what would have happened to the SNPs spending plans with oil dropping in price so dramatically? How would they have "saved the poors"? Oil was just a bonus. Without oil revenues we'd still be the 3rd richest country in the world. Or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 ^^^^^^^^^ The cavalry has arrived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Oil was just a bonus. Without oil revenues we'd still be the 3rd richest country in the world. Or something. 15% of our economy. Yup, a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 ^^^^^^^^^ The cavalry has arrived Keep the horse, shoot the rider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 i know it must be hard for you to read what others post so here it is again. The clue is in these big numbers 2017/18. To help you out these numbers relate to a time in the future, currently 2 to 3 years away. If you could fly off in your wee time machine and come back and let us know how much lower or higher the oil price was that would be nice For example, the Scottish Government Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin made forecasts for2017/18 based on an oil price of $113 dollars a barrel. Why was he predicting this? It was called out as utter bullshit at the time and anyone that dared say it was called out as a scaremongerer. There is a glut of oil worldwide just now. The US is self sufficient. Where was the extra demand coming from exactly? Why did the SG dish out such a ridiculous figure? http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-opec-oil-idUSKBN0II0XD20141029 Even this suggests the current pricing is not temporary drop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom McB Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Warning to anyone responding this this question. If you disagree with him you'll be attacked on all sides from his other aliases. You've been warned. Make good decisions people. Say nothing, our argument is threadbare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 And lets not forget that fatty told Scotland that his fantasy figure was a conservative estimate. This fucking balloon was even telling the clown collective it would likely be up around £150 a barrel. And they lapped it up of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Say nothing, our argument is threadbare. Its the usual method of the buckled lefty f**k. Close down any sort of debate when you are toiling. Old as the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Jack D Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If only we had an oil fund to balance out this price volatility. The only way for the value of this diminishing finite resource is down! Given that if it had been a yes vote we would still be 16 months away from independence, this drop in value wouldn't have had any impact on indy Scotland. Oil is a bonus. Remove it and Scotland and the rUK gdp per capita is practically the same. Salmond is fat though, I'll concede that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 If only we had an oil fund to balance out this price volatility. The only way for the value of this diminishing finite resource is down! Given that if it had been a yes vote we would still be 16 months away from independence, this drop in value wouldn't have had any impact on indy Scotland. Oil is a bonus. Remove it and Scotland and the rUK gdp per capita is practically the same. Salmond is fat though, I'll concede that. Oil is 15% of the Scottish economy. Definitely NOT a bonus. it's integral. The drop in revenue since the near all time high of 11.5bn a couple of GERS back would be utterly catastrophic for a small economy like ours. Thankfully, we are part of a bigger economy and it doesn't matter a f**k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 i know it must be hard for you to read what others post so here it is again. The clue is in these big numbers 2017/18. To help you out these numbers relate to a time in the future, currently 2 to 3 years away. If you could fly off in your wee time machine and come back and let us know how much lower or higher the oil price was that would be nice For example, the Scottish Government Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin made forecasts for2017/18 based on an oil price of $113 dollars a barrel. Understand yet? I understand what you're trying to say.... except the Scottish government's oil and gas analytical bulletin didn't just make predictions that the oil price would reach those levels in 2017/18. As can be seen from the actual document: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0045/00453317.pdf - pages 12 and 13 refer to the Scottish government's scenario planning. Scenario 1 used the OBR's forecasts. Those of us with decent enough memories will recall that the OBR's forecasts were criticised by many in the Yes campaign for being overly pessimistic. In this most conservative scenario, the oil price was modelled as falling from $109 in 2013/14 to $99 in 2016-17 and remaining constant at that level. Scenario's 2-5 assumed a constant oil price of $110 over the next 5 years. Scenario 6 modelled oil increasing to $128 over the forecast period. At present Brent is at around $82. In an independent Scotland, as many of us pointed out during the campaign, the oil industry would be of crucial importance to the country's finances. It would not be a bonus. As such, it's perfectly fair to point out that the Scottish government's projections fail on the most basic tests of prudence. As has been rightly pointed out, if someone could say with absolute certainty where the oil price will be in 5 years time they'd make a fortune - which is why we have to resort to making the best use of the information we have to hand. With stagnant demand in developed markets and slowing growth in developing markets, it's hard to see there being a massive uptick on the demand side in the near-term. On the supply side, US shale has had a massively destabilising effect on the market. The Saudi's pricing response made the other day just highlighted this even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dipped Flake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 as has been pointed out, Scots GDP would be very slightly lower then rUK if we totally ignore the oil. Oil is a bonus, a huge bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Where were all these No voting fannies afore the vote? They were in hiding and quietly shitting themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joozy Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 as has been pointed out, Scots GDP would be very slightly lower then rUK if we totally ignore the oil. Oil is a bonus, a huge bonus. GDP is a misleading figure - especially when trying to claim that oil is nothing more than a bonus. Take a look at Ireland's GDP/Capita - it is not a stat to hang much upon. Oil and gas, according to the Scottish governments own figures, accounts for around 15% of an independent Scotland's tax take. Using the Scottish government's own scenario planning - their assumptions for 2014/15 ranged from £3.3-£5.8bn. It now looks like it will fall markedly below even the bottom end of that range. That is money that has to be made up for elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murray Mints Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 ...and saving 2-3 billion every year from our defence budget, not having to pay for the London Capital projects, or the endless layers of politicians at Westminister that Reynard claims to hate . Scotland would have been better off with a Yes vote. Remember when BT said if everything aligned against Scottish taypayers would be worse off by a whole £1 per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Slaphead Swinney was going to give us an oil fund while borrowing heavily to fund the rest of his state spending. No wonder they took a fucking gubbing in their own referendum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squidger Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Slaphead Swinney was going to give us an oil fund while borrowing heavily to fund the rest of his state spending. No wonder they took a fucking gubbing in their own referendum. You still dont see the wood for the trees, i feel sorry for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Jack D Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Oil is 15% of the Scottish economy. Definitely NOT a bonus. it's integral. The drop in revenue since the near all time high of 11.5bn a couple of GERS back would be utterly catastrophic for a small economy like ours. Thankfully, we are part of a bigger economy and it doesn't matter a f**k. Did the UK govt set aside anything from that all time high revenue a couple of years back, you know into a fund type thing? Or did it piss it all over the South of England? Scottish Gdp per head = UK gdp per head without oil. Oil would be a bonus of a very diverse and wealthy economy that could be so much more efficient and accountable than Westminster. It is volatile though and needs managed. How's Westminster doing managing the finances of our bigger is better economy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todders Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Slaphead Swinney was going to give us an oil fund while borrowing heavily to fund the rest of his state spending. No wonder they took a fucking gubbing in their own referendum. Isn't borrowing while saving in an oil fund a hell of a lot more sensible than borrowing and spunking every penny of oil money up against a nuclear warhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.