Realistic number of SNP MPs after 2015 General Election.

[yoda]

Regarding O&S and it being the last bastion of Liberal Democrats, it's interesting to look at the northern (mainland) constituencies.

Caithness & Sutherland (1918-1997): SDP/LD from 1983 to 1997

Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (1997-present): LD since 1997

Ross & Cromarty (abolished in 1983): Conservative from 1970-1983

Ross, Cromarty & Skye (1983-1997): replaced R&C, has voted SDP/LD from 1983-1997

Ross, Skye & Inverness West (1997-2005): replaced RC&S, voted LD from 1997-2005

Ross, Skye & Lochaber (2005-present): voted LD since 2005

Inverness (1918-1983): Liberal from 1964-1983

Inverness, Nairn & Lochaber (1983-1997): Liberal/Liberal Democrat from 83-97

Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber (1997-2005): Labour from 1997-2005

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (2005-present): LD since 2005

So bar two elections in 'Inverness', since 1983, the constituencies that have made up the Highlands have consistently voted Liberal Democrat or one of their predecessors during the general elections. This election represents the first major shift for most of the Highlands away from the LDs in a general election.

I don't have the time to look out the figures for Holyrood but 2011 did see Ross-shire, Caithness, and Sutherland move from orange to yellow.

[Enigma]

My best friend lives on Shetland, the attitude of some of them up there to Scottish Independence is so infuriating, they're like oh why would we want to be ruled by Edinburgh its so far away, and central-belt domination etc, yeah so you'd prefer to be ruled from London which is even further away and have SE domination instead. Utter weapons.

To be fair I know a few people from Shetland, one was a very active Yes campaigner and the others are Tartan army home and away game types. More comfortable with a Scottish identity than your average Borders farmer.

[LongTimeLurker]

Lot of folk moved in with the oil boom. It's the hardcore tourie and ganzie wearing crofters and fishermen from families that have been around since the Vikings that are the demographic that the SNP would finally need to reach to win the seat. Hope Ashcroft does a poll there soon. it would definitely be interesting to see the numbers. My guess based on wild conjecture would be LD 40 SNP 26 Tories 13 Greens 10 Lab 8 UKIP 3. There's a lot of middle class English hippy types around, hence the high Green number.

[yoda]

Lot of folk moved in with the oil boom. It's the hardcore tourie and ganzie wearing crofters and fishermen from families that have been around since the Vikings that are the demographic that the SNP would finally need to reach to win the seat.

From my, albeit anecdotal, experience it's the other way around. The "white settlers" are the ones who seem keen to make an issue over "identity". Going on a tangent, Tavish Scott being a thoroughly likeable bloke (as well as seemingly being involved in the local community) is one reason people said their parents voted Lib Dem.

[FuzzyAffro]

it makes perfect sense he just told you. i lived there for 3 years and its fairly simple what there vews are. london may not be perfect for them but its alot better than the socialist central belt who they feel will tax them to the hilt and give them fcuk all back. its a very affluent area generaly speaking. they are far more right wing in their attatude than their voting records would suggest. - unemployment is almost non exisant so they believe the daily mail stories about feckless scroungers, wages are decent so tey dont wat higher taxes. many people have small plots of land round their homes which they use as crofts and they use this to claim thousands in subsidys every year - most of which comes from the EU. and thens theres the whole "we're not scottish thing"

So exactly as I said then, they're c***s.

[Enigma]

From my, albeit anecdotal, experience it's the other way around. The "white settlers" are the ones who seem keen to make an issue over "identity". Going on a tangent, Tavish Scott being a thoroughly likeable bloke (as well as seemingly being involved in the local community) is one reason people said their parents voted Lib Dem.

Tavish thoroughly likeable? Wind up surely?

[FlyerTon]

I read somewhere that about 80% of English people don't want a government that has the SNP in it.

The therefore unthinkable coalition between Labour and Tories or Tories and Labour can't be totally ruled out, they may see it as 'saving the union'

If say Labour did go into coalition with the SNP then they could face the prospect of electoral wipeout at the next elections as per the Lib Dems.

[invergowrie arab]

I read somewhere that about 80% of English people don't want a government that has the SNP in it.

The therefore unthinkable coalition between Labour and Tories or Tories and Labour can't be totally ruled out, they may see it as 'saving the union'

If say Labour did go into coalition with the SNP then they could face the prospect of electoral wipeout at the next elections as per the Lib Dems.

If there was a lab- con coalition Scotland would be independent before that parliament was out.

[FlyerTon]

How accurate are the polls anyway?

Look at the Indy polls, I thought it was going to be very close, then a massive let down when some bloke popped up on TV at 10pm on the day, saying it was 99% certain of a no vote (or words to that effect)

The 'No' majority was also much bigger than I expected going by the polls.

[invergowrie arab]

How accurate are the polls anyway?

Look at the Indy polls, I thought it was going to be very close, then a massive let down when some bloke popped up on TV at 10pm on the day, saying it was 99% certain of a no vote (or words to that effect)

The 'No' majority was also much bigger than I expected going by the polls.

You could count on the fingers of one hand the number of indyref polls that didn't end up within the margin of error of the result.

Polls aren't predictions anyway but a snapshot of a moment in time.

[LongTimeLurker]

The polls were predicting a narrow but comfortable No win by that point rather than a cliffhanger. Think some people only saw what they wanted to see and it showed that the methodology the companies all appeared to converge on was a good one. Personally thought the Yes side had clearly peaked too soon and ran out of steam at the end and had nothing left in the tank to counter the so-called vow and John Reid's "if you don't know vote No" line. This time around the SNP won't be the main focus on the London based coverage if Labour and the Conservatives are still neck and neck. The Scottish angle will be a brief story a few items in, followed by a token failed statelet sentence.

[Elixir]

The polls for the SNP now are a fair bit more emphatic than the polls were for "no" in the months before the referendum.

[FuzzyAffro]

I don't expect the SNP to get anywhere near 56 seats, as long as we get over 30 I'll be happy.

[Elixir]

At this stage I'd be a bit underwhelmed with a fair bit less than what Liebour got in 2010, especially when you take the Liberal collapse into account as well.

That in itself speaks volumes though given a majority (30) of SNP MPs being returned would still be an incredible result. Even if they didn't get a majority but still ended up the largest party it would be an incredible result.

[Mr Bairn]

You could count on the fingers of one hand the number of indyref polls that didn't end up within the margin of error of the result.

Polls aren't predictions anyway but a snapshot of a moment in time.

Certainly the final poll for each pollster was pretty close. You had that yougov poll with Yes ahead a couple of weeks before, but as had been predicted throughout the campaign there was a last minute swing back towards the status quo (I think this will happen in May, but with the way the polls are right now a small swing back to Labour is still going to be good for 30+ SNP gains)

I think what kinda killed Yes late on in the campaign was Darling doing better than expected in the first debate and Gordon Brown bringing energy into the lethargic No campaign. Love them of hate them, Labour are going to sorely miss these guys come May.

[Colkitto]

You have to remember the SNP are currently on 6 seats. Some really huge majorities to overcome and it won't be easy.

Polls are fantastic right now and you can't help get carried away with only a couple of months to go.

Although I would be under-whelmed, 15 to 20 seats would be a great achievement. I hope it's well over that amount and Labour are completely routed.

I hope the polls are correct and we get a few big scalps and over 30 seats, but we have to realistic to what can be achieved.

[John Lambies Doos]

You have to remember the SNP are currently on 6 seats. Some really huge majorities to overcome and it won't be easy.

Polls are fantastic right now and you can't help get carried away with only a couple of months to go.

Although I would be under-whelmed, 15 to 20 seats would be a great achievement. I hope it's well over that amount and Labour are completely routed.

I hope the polls are correct and we get a few big scalps and over 30 seats, but we have to realistic to what can be achieved.

Regardless of what happens it will be more than 15-20 seats

[Colkitto]

Regardless of what happens it will be more than 15-20 seats

Wouldn't disagree with you, just trying not to get too carried away...

[DC92]

Certainly the final poll for each pollster was pretty close. You had that yougov poll with Yes ahead a couple of weeks before, but as had been predicted throughout the campaign there was a last minute swing back towards the status quo (I think this will happen in May, but with the way the polls are right now a small swing back to Labour is still going to be good for 30+ SNP gains)

I think what kinda killed Yes late on in the campaign was Darling doing better than expected in the first debate and Gordon Brown bringing energy into the lethargic No campaign. Love them of hate them, Labour are going to sorely miss these guys come May.

It was the 2nd Salmond-Darling debate which was the catalyst for the polls narrowing, so I don't see how the first debate "killed" Yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#Results

A few people keep bringing up referendum polls as a note of caution for some reason. Most of them were within the margin of error in terms of the Yes vote but polls were often reported excluding Undecideds (who were clearly going to be crucial). In my experience most people who were ostensibly undecided were actually default Nos who were "waiting to be convinced" right up until the last few days. The referendum result was also harder to predict than a general election due to the lack of precedent and the unpredictable turnout etc.

You've also got to remember that we were literally threatened with another great depression, economic turmoil, banks and businesses leaving the country, no currency, expulsion from Europe, armed border guards and Russian invasions if we voted for independence. If 44.7% of the voters didn't buy that then I find it hard to believe they'll be spooked by the prospect of having David Cameron instead of Ed Miliband in Downing Street (leaving aside the questionable logic of their "vote SNP, get Tories" mantra). In fact, it seems more likely to me that those that wanted to vote Yes but shat it could be tempted by the SNP.

I'll admit that I instinctively expected the polls to narrow, but the closer we get, the less likely it seems. I think we're more likely to see anti-SNP tactical voting than we are to see the SNP losing support, but I'm not sure it'll be significant enough to make a difference in many, if any, constituencies.

You have to remember the SNP are currently on 6 seats. Some really huge majorities to overcome and it won't be easy.

Polls are fantastic right now and you can't help get carried away with only a couple of months to go.

Although I would be under-whelmed, 15 to 20 seats would be a great achievement. I hope it's well over that amount and Labour are completely routed.

I hope the polls are correct and we get a few big scalps and over 30 seats, but we have to realistic to what can be achieved.

15-20 seats would be a dreadful return for the SNP. They need to capitalise on the surge of support after the referendum and winning a third or a quarter of Scotland's seats simply won't do that. The Ashcroft polling has shown it'd take a huge collapse in support to reach that level anyway.

As for the size of the Labour majorities, there are several reasons why they aren't nearly as relevant as they would be in a traditional election. Firstly, the Scottish electorate has shown they can quite comfortably switch their vote between Labour and the SNP (a 42-20 win for Labour in 2010 was reversed to a 45-32 win for the SNP in 2011). Scotland has voted SNP in every Scottish, Council and European election since 2007 - the 2010 UK election is the odd one out. The SNP were barely mentioned in 2010 because they were seen as an irrelevance who couldn't influence the outcome of the election and their coverage in the campaign reflected that. A lot of Labour votes in 2010 likely came from people who probably preferred the SNP, but felt it would be pointless voting for them. Now their support has reached a tipping point such that they are the main talking point of the election campaign across the UK, let alone Scotland. As well as SNP sympathisers feeling more comfortable about voting for them, the coalition government and the referendum campaign have hugely damaged the popularity of the Lib Dems and Labour respectively, while the SNP have hoovered up their support. The relative popularities of Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband in Scotland is also a factor.

We're a world away from 2010.

[HaikuHibee]

It was the 2nd Salmond-Darling debate which was the catalyst for the polls narrowing, so I don't see how the first debate "killed" Yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#Results

A few people keep bringing up referendum polls as a note of caution for some reason. Most of them were within the margin of error in terms of the Yes vote but polls were often reported excluding Undecideds (who were clearly going to be crucial). In my experience most people who were ostensibly undecided were actually default Nos who were "waiting to be convinced" right up until the last few days. The referendum result was also harder to predict than a general election due to the lack of precedent and the unpredictable turnout etc.

You've also got to remember that we were literally threatened with another great depression, economic turmoil, banks and businesses leaving the country, no currency, expulsion from Europe, armed border guards and Russian invasions if we voted for independence. If 44.7% of the voters didn't buy that then I find it hard to believe they'll be spooked by the prospect of having David Cameron instead of Ed Miliband in Downing Street (leaving aside the questionable logic of their "vote SNP, get Tories" mantra). In fact, it seems more likely to me that those that wanted to vote Yes but shat it could be tempted by the SNP.

I'll admit that I instinctively expected the polls to narrow, but the closer we get, the less likely it seems. I think we're more likely to see anti-SNP tactical voting than we are to see the SNP losing support, but I'm not sure it'll be significant enough to make a difference in many, if any, constituencies.

15-20 seats would be a dreadful return for the SNP. They need to capitalise on the surge of support after the referendum and winning a third or a quarter of Scotland's seats simply won't do that. The Ashcroft polling has shown it'd take a huge collapse in support to reach that level anyway.

As for the size of the Labour majorities, there are several reasons why they aren't nearly as relevant as they would be in a traditional election. Firstly, the Scottish electorate has shown they can quite comfortably switch their vote between Labour and the SNP (a 42-20 win for Labour in 2010 was reversed to a 45-32 win for the SNP in 2011). Scotland has voted SNP in every Scottish, Council and European election since 2007 - the 2010 UK election is the odd one out. The SNP were barely mentioned in 2010 because they were seen as an irrelevance who couldn't influence the outcome of the election and their coverage in the campaign reflected that. A lot of Labour votes in 2010 likely came from people who probably preferred the SNP, but felt it would be pointless voting for them. Now their support has reached a tipping point such that they are the main talking point of the election campaign across the UK, let alone Scotland. As well as SNP sympathisers feeling more comfortable about voting for them, the coalition government and the referendum campaign have hugely damaged the popularity of the Lib Dems and Labour respectively, while the SNP have hoovered up their support. The relative popularities of Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband in Scotland is also a factor.

We're a world away from 2010.

I hope you are right. There's still some time to go yet. We'll see what happens.