Realistic number of SNP MPs after 2015 General Election.

[John Lambies Doos 4,251]

Has optimism increased? Last few predictions were around the 12 mark..

I reckon 25 will be about right.

[Elixir 2,997]

Has optimism increased? Last few predictions were around the 12 mark..

I reckon 25 will be about right.

Quite simply, the sky is currently the limit for the SNP. The political landscape has changed exponentially since 2010.

[DAFC. 1,407]

At this stage, anything lower than 30 would be dissapointing.

[Colkitto 1,210]

At this stage anything can happen. Trying to be realistic and stay away from the fantasy land figures, but Murphy just isn't cutting it so far.

Will be interesting if the Gordon Brown intervention recently has had any effect, although I personally doubt it.

Labour have just under 3 months to come up with something - anything - that will claw back voters from the SNP. Polls haven't shifted in the last 6 months with the SNP approximately 20 - 25 points ahead.

I would imagine the polls will narrow the nearer the election itself, but by how much and will it be enough to stop a SNP landslide?

Edited February 9, 2015 by Colkitto

[Gordon EF 5,955]

20-30

[Elixir 2,997]

The peculiar thing is, somewhere in the region of 25 seats for the SNP at this stage would probably feel like a bit of a disappointment, even though it wouldn't actually be. At the same time, that figure would be disastrous for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

[AberdeenBud 1,731]

Think I went for an optimistic 12 at first.

Probably treble that now.

[MONKMAN 5,689]

I wonder how the media will manage to spin an SNP fail, if they only send 25-30 MPs to Westminster.

[Granny Danger 16,798]

I wonder how the media will manage to spin an SNP fail, if they only send 25-30 MPs to Westminster.

If we get more than Labour it will impossible to spin it as a failure. Even allowing for changes (and lies) before May I think 30-35 is realistic.

[Ludo*1 10,150]

I'll still go for something between 15-20. That way I'm pleased, whatever happens. Reckon we'll see some shitebaggery come election day.

I genuinely am surprised at how poor a job Jim Murphy seems to be doing. I thought that such a careerist as he is, would have been able to create a wave of doubt, if only marginally in his time so far, but it appears the SNP would rather he was in charge than Iain Gray at this point.

[HaikuHibee 422]

I think twenty or so. Labour leads are so large here, the whole press backs them.

[HaikuHibee 422]

[Guest]

Absolutely delusional if the NCC actually expect to win more than 10 seats anyway. Most of the yes voters are scheme goblins that won't even know there's an election on. vvvvvv pleasing.

[glasgow-sheep 302]

Latest poll from TNS show SNP 41% Labour 31% Tory 16% Green 6% and LibDem 4%

Scotland votes suggest

SNP 35 seats, Labour 21 seats Tories 2 seats, LibDems 2 seats

And Labour holding onto all but Glasgow South (my seat :-) )

I wonder if this will be like the 2012 council elections

Big expectations for SNP, esp in Glasgow.

They end up making huge gains everywhere and becoming the biggest party but lose out in Glasgow and so is spun by the media as a defeat?

I reckon 25-35 SNP is a reasonable bet at the moment, but just can't believe that once it comes down to a full blown UK-wide campaign that a sizeable number of folk won't wander back to Labour meaning c20 for the SNP

[Colkitto 1,210]

The SNP currently have 6 MP's. Double figures will be a success.

But given the polling and the fact we are now under 3 months away from the election you have to be looking at way more than 10 or 15 MP's. I'm getting more confident, but do realise it will take a herculean effort to make gains or even overtake Labour.

I really rated Murphy and to an extent still do. But he's been extremely poor since he's become leader and you have to wonder what he can do between now and May to stop a rout by the SNP.

I've a feeling he's going to base his strategy over having a good campaign period. He's good in front of the camera but his message so far his been dreadful.

[renton 4,959]

Latest poll from TNS show SNP 41% Labour 31% Tory 16% Green 6% and LibDem 4%

Scotland votes suggest

SNP 35 seats, Labour 21 seats Tories 2 seats, LibDems 2 seats

And Labour holding onto all but Glasgow South (my seat :-) )

I wonder if this will be like the 2012 council elections

Big expectations for SNP, esp in Glasgow.

They end up making huge gains everywhere and becoming the biggest party but lose out in Glasgow and so is spun by the media as a defeat?

I reckon 25-35 SNP is a reasonable bet at the moment, but just can't believe that once it comes down to a full blown UK-wide campaign that a sizeable number of folk won't wander back to Labour meaning c20 for the SNP

Maybe, two things worth noting about TNS so far in the GE polling, firstly they have shown bigger Labour leads in UK polls than others (they've had Labour at +6 on the Tories) secondly, due to the time it takes them to carry out field work, this poll actually overlaps the last Ipsos, YouGov and partially overlaps some of the Ashcroft constituency polling.

[AberdeenBud 1,731]

Short analysis of the SNP's chances in each seat at the May2015 blog.

http://may2015.com/featured/can-the-snp-really-win-more-than-50-seats/

[John Lambies Doos 4,251]

Feeling more optimistic now 30 snp mps

[Pete's Frontier 56]

Mrs Sturgeon on a Labour SNP coalition and Trident in one minute: We won't be in a coalition with Labour if they support Trident.. then.. Eh... we won't be in a coalition with Labour if they still plan Trident's replacement... then. Eh... we'll maybe be be in a coalition with Labour but we won't vote with them on Trident or it's planned replacement..

Woman of conviction.

[Granny Danger 16,798]

Mrs Sturgeon on a Labour SNP coalition and Trident in one minute: We won't be in a coalition with Labour if they support Trident.. then.. Eh... we won't be in a coalition with Labour if they still plan Trident's replacement... then. Eh... we'll maybe be be in a coalition with Labour but we won't vote with them on Trident or it's planned replacement..

Woman of conviction.

I preferred your other thread where you were converting to Islam.