Hollyrood 2016

[renton]

True. But the SNP has been around since the 1930's. It's taken them 80 years to come this far and we still find ourselves trapped under the same system of corruption.

We have an opportunity to finally change things. Voting for the Scottish Greens at this stage will ensure that nothing ever changes.

Well, it took the Labour party far less time to establish themselves from their inception - it just means that there is no set model for how party popularity grows.

[Kyle]

How can the popularity of the Scottish greens possibly grow if they don't have the powers to establish any of their policies?

I have far more in common with Green policies than SNP policies. But backing them at this stage is utterely pointless. Holyrood, fine. But at Westminster? I just don't see the logic in that at all.

To be fair, this is the Holyrood 2016 thread.

I'll likely give the Greens my list vote.

[renton]

How can the popularity of the Scottish greens possibly grow if they don't have the powers to establish any of their policies?

I have far more in common with Green policies than SNP policies. But backing them at this stage is utterely pointless. Holyrood, fine. But at Westminster? I just don't see the logic in that at all.

Because we are stuck with Westminster for the time being, because if we follow the logic that a vote for them is pointless because they have no base, it'll always be pointless because no one votes for them to establish a base.

[renton]

The only way the Scottish Greens will ever be able to establish a base that will give them any true representation in Scotland is through independence and the only way to do that is to back the SNP next year.

I'm saying that people shouldn't vote for the Scottish Greens next year. I'm not saying that they should never vote for them ever.

But if we want a strong Scottish Green party that's actually worth voting for in the future, we need to back the SNP next year. Because they'll never have the power requirements necessary to do anything meaningful under the current UK system. So surely it makes sense to try and get out of that system as soon as possible.

All I'm saying is that any from of tactical voting, any attempt at voting in the 'least worst' model inevitably leads to the kind of sleepwalking where twenty years down the road, you wake up and folk are calling you 'red tories' and the shadow chancellor is relishing the prosect of massive public cuts. There are also several huge assumptions in your scenario, firstly and most glaringly that a strong SNP presence next year at Westminster will lead to independence - it might not, we might not get a strong SNP group despite voting that way, we might not have enoguh to tip the balance of Westminster, they might succeed beyong their wildest dreams and get so much devolved that it accidentally takes Indy off the table for the forseable future, it might just all peter out.

There is no concrete route to independence at the moment, and we will have to wait some years before there is. IN the emantime I absolutely agree with you that a strong pro-indy group of Scottish MPs would help at least address the shortcomings of the Smith Commission next year, but the Greens should be listened to, and if they can convince enough folk to vote for them good for them, if they can convince enough to split the SNP vote to let Labour in, then it's up to the SNP to take on the voter concerns that would lead them to vote Green over SNP.

[~~~]

[Swarley]

Now in no Brian Taylor but isn't it Holyrood ?

[~~~]

Bump. latest polls, Would be a great year for the Greens becoming the 3rd biggest party in Holyrood

[~~~]

Bump

[Broccoli Dog]

Right Nats.

I know it probably doesn't have to be said, but a mass SNP/Green vote on 2016 could 'potentially' push Labour into third place. Voting SNP on the list is pointless as they will hoover most of the constituency seats anyway. But imagine the scenes if Scottish Greens became the main Holyrood opposition party.

That should be the 2016 tactic.

[invergowrie arab]

It's a bit more complicated than that.

Snp won all but Orkney and Shetland in highland and i would suspect that will he the result again in 2016. The snp got 3 of the list msps in highland.

In the south of Scotland you should still vote snp on the list.

[Mr Bairn]

Voter management is key in proportional elections. The masters of it are Sinn Fein.

In the NI assembly elections, which use STV, Gerry Adams was elected on the first count but with barely more votes than the quota. Had the party not managed their voters properly he would have probably got more than 2 or 3 times the vote he actually did.

The corollary to this is that instead of having wasted votes for Adams they transferred to the other Sinn Fein candidates allowing them to have several members elected.

In a proportional election the ability to use the system to your advantage is crucial.

[LongTimeLurker]

D'Hondt is very different from STV, so the only important thing is explaining that the regional ballot is not a second choice.. It's council elections where Scottish parties could take some tips from the DUP and SF on this. What they do is split wards up geographically and tell voters to vote for their candidates in different preference sequences to keep the numbers well balanced. The DUP also tell voters to number candidates all the way through to the one they most dislike, no prizes for guessing which party that usually is, because it can help to keep that candidate below the quota.

[Mr Bairn]

Something I was just thinking about.

Right now we have the branch office's C team as the opposition at Holyrood. The B tean all lost their seats in 2011 and the A team are about to lose their MP seats

Wonder how many of the current MSPs will find themselves promptly deselected in favour of an MP of yesteryear

[Kyle]

The irresistible Murphy bounce is further evidenced today. New yougov Scottish Parliament poll results released;

Constituency vote

SNP 51%

Labour 25%

Tories 16%

Lib Dems 6%

UKIP 2%

Regional Vote

SNP 42%

Labour 25%

Tories 15%

Lib Dems 6%

Greens 7%

UKIP 2%

Seat numbers;

SNP 70 (+1)
Labour 30 (-7)

Tories 15 (+1)

Lib Dems 6 (+1)

Greens 7 (+5)

UKIP 0

#Murphybounce

[~~~]

I expect the Greens to do very well next year.

[Poet of the Macabre]

SNP and Greens being the two biggest party would make me laugh my tits off. Not gonna happen sadly.

[Sooky]

The irresistible Murphy bounce is further evidenced today. New yougov Scottish Parliament poll results released;

Constituency vote

SNP 51%

Labour 25%

Tories 16%

Lib Dems 6%

UKIP 2%

Regional Vote

SNP 42%

Labour 25%

Tories 15%

Lib Dems 6%

Greens 7%

UKIP 2%

Seat numbers;

SNP 70 (+1)

Labour 30 (-7)

Tories 15 (+1)

Lib Dems 6 (+1)

Greens 7 (+5)

UKIP 0

#Murphybounce

Think the Tories would be on 16, not 15...just saying.

[Mr Bairn]

SNP and Greens being the two biggest party would make me laugh my tits off. Not gonna happen sadly.

Only way it would happen is if they made a pact and the SNP didnt stand on the list. It would probably cost the SNP 15-20 seats but the Green Party could possibly win 40 of their own from the list

[Elixir]

Hopefully the Greens win at least one seat in every region which would give them a minimum of eight MSPs. There will obviously be no Margo MacDonald on the list in the Lothians next year sadly so that should go to either the SNP or Greens.

[Dunning1874]

In 2011 the Greens were hopeful of gaining six or seven seats but failed to increase their vote share significantly while also suffering due to the Labour/Lib Dem disasters. Had Labour's constituency vote not collapse thanks to the Greyman while the Lib Dems had the coalition backlash then the number of votes the Greens had on the list would have resulted in more seats, but as it was Labour got more list seats due to their catastrophe in the constituencies. The side effect from the Labour/Lib Dem collapses being predicted in polls was with people who may have gone Green - myself included - going SNP instead when realising in the final weeks of the campaign that an SNP majority could actually be possible, bringing their vote share back down while Labour and Lib Dems list votes counted for more than expected.

2016 could go two ways. Some who voted SNP in the list in 2011 in the hope they'd have a majority and deliver a referendum could move away from them in the list vote this time, knowing that they'll still hoover up the constituencies comfortably and probably manage another majority even with more people going Green in the list, while Labour's continued catastrofuck of a decade sees some of their list votes going to the Greens as well.

Alternatively, the SNP list vote holds up as people don't want to risk Labour getting more seats and the SNP becoming a minority, while the Greens winning the votes of disaffected former Labour and Lib Dem voters makes little difference as Labour do even worse in the constituencies and that cancels out the lost list votes, shutting the Greens out.

That's why they're willing to take the financial hit of potentially losing several deposits for Westminster this year: Holyrood is what matters and the campaigning experience gained this year'll be vital in convincing people a Green List vote is worthwhile.