General Election 2015

[Mr Bairn]

Factual. There was a breakdown of who voted what by council wards. My part of edinburgh was 38/62 against.

Shitehawks.

Anywhere I can find that online?

[renton]

Anywhere I can find that online?

probably, but I don't know where, I only saw excerpts on social media.

[Mr Bairn]

probably, but I don't know where, I only saw excerpts on social media.

Looked on the Fife website and apparently they were only giving one total for the council, on the insistance of the returning officer.

Bizarrely, Glasgow and Falkirk both give the result in terms of Holyrood constituencies, but Edinburgh gives it in terms of Holyrood constituencies, and North Lanarkshire simply has 4 quite arbitrary "zones" (It seems Airdrie and Coatbridge voted No)

Seems the counting procedures were quite different from council to council.

[Jamaldo]

Apparently in my council Barra and the Uists voted Yes but Stornoway voted No. However these were just rough guesses that were done during the counts for each area so no idea how true they are.

[WaffenThinMint]

I think Reckless has a 50-50 chance to win the seat at the by-election but will almost certainly lose it in May. I feel like parties like UKIP and the SNP (at WM level) have their best results as a protest in by-elections but when the GE comes around people will ultimately decide between Red or Blue.

The difference with by-elections is that they cause people to really think about local issues and elect a local MP, when the GE comes around, although you're voting for an MP, it's really fought on national boundaries.

Reckless has a good chance because it seems local issues proved the final straw rather than merely immigration. Paddypower has the Tories & UKIP neck & neck at 10/11, but the others have UKIP ahead.

If the Greens & 57 varieties of far right groups stand aside, it should be enough to ensure he's got it in the bag - the Greens in particular may be tempted to give him a clear run to ensure no split in the anti-Medway Tory council vote Reckless will be hoping to pick up over the local council's determination to wreck the green belt plus the whole "Boris Island" airport business has not been popular.

This could prove to be a constituency like Wyre Forest where intense feeling over local issues completely change the political landscape for longer & deeper than the pundits expected.

[Mr Bairn]

Reckless has a good chance because it seems local issues proved the final straw rather than merely immigration. Paddypower has the Tories & UKIP neck & neck at 10/11, but the others have UKIP ahead.

If the Greens & 57 varieties of far right groups stand aside, it should be enough to ensure he's got it in the bag - the Greens in particular may be tempted to give him a clear run to ensure no split in the anti-Medway Tory council vote Reckless will be hoping to pick up over the local council's determination to wreck the green belt plus the whole "Boris Island" airport business has not been popular.

This could prove to be a constituency like Wyre Forest where intense feeling over local issues completely change the political landscape for longer & deeper than the pundits expected.

I really can't see the Greens stepping aside to help UKIP.

[ForzaDundee]

A 5% unifomr swing to SNP gives them 3 extra seats, an 8% swing to SNP gives them 19. That's the target.

18.9% voted Lib Dem in 2010. There's the 8% swing right there.

[Mr Bairn]

18.9% voted Lib Dem in 2010. There's the 8% swing right there.

The problem is that even if you give that entire 18.9% over to the SNP, they only gain 10 seats, if Labour stay constant.

It's quite funny how safe Alistair Carmichael is, if you put the Lib Dems into Scotland Votes at 0%, it still has them holding Orkney and Shetland

[FlyerTon]

Lib Dem vote set to totally collapse - where will their voters go? Mostly to Labour?

A lot of people don't want to vote for Labour now after what happened at the referendum, but at the same time they don't want the Tories.

A difficult one to call.

[Jamaldo]

Lib Dem vote set to totally collapse - where will their voters go? Mostly to Labour?

A lot of people don't want to vote for Labour now after what happened at the referendum, but at the same time they don't want the Tories.

A difficult one to call.

Put it this way. All these Labour sheep voted for them in 2010 and they still didn't get in. On reflection, extremely pleasing.

What have Labour done south of the border to recover their collapse of the vote there? Getting rid of the wrinkly boaby sucker for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath as leader probably helps, but will it be enough?

[Crùbag]

Just saw this on Twitter:

YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions for general election: SNP 43% Labour 23% Conservative 17% Green 5% UKIP 5% Lib dem 5%

Long time to go but here's hoping. Pity the Greens 5% won't get anything. LDs wiped out though unless that 5% is concentrated on one seat.

[ICTJohnboy]

I normally couldn't give a shit about UK elections, but I'm certainly looking forward to this one.

What chance a much larger turnout in Scotland than in the rest of the UK?

[pandarilla]

The That would be interesting.

I'd also like to see a stark contrast in ukip's fortunes north and south of the border.

I'd love to see a green mp up here but unfortunately we don't have anything resembling a Brighton

[Mr Bairn]

Just saw this on Twitter:

YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions for general election: SNP 43% Labour 23% Conservative 17% Green 5% UKIP 5% Lib dem 5%

Long time to go but here's hoping. Pity the Greens 5% won't get anything. LDs wiped out though unless that 5% is concentrated on one seat.

Now this, this would be sensational.

The SNP would be looking at 48 seats, Labour losing all but 6 of their seats. Crazy. That would be an absolute landslide. Jim Murphy would lose his seat to the Tories, who would gain a couple of seats. The Lib Dems would retain the Northern Isles, of course.

I can't see it being replicated on the day, but it would be an absolute kicking for Labour and prove that whilst the majority of voters here don't want independence, almost all of "the 45" and a good portion of the No voters are happy to back the SNP as the natural party of Scotland.

Also with the "Shy Tory" factor, we could be looking at the unbelievable scenario where the Tories overtake Labour in the popular vote into second place.

[Enigma]

That poll being the result would be glorious.

[DAFC.]

There's too many Labour majorities for us to get close to 26. The average Labour supporter that voted Yes will put this down to Labour v Tories as per usual, go "Aw f**k, better vote Labour to keep they Tories out!" despite the fact our votes have never made a difference to the overall result since WWII.

I think we can gain double what we've got, that's a realistic aim for the SNP. Achieving 26 seats will require some amount of work.

[stm]

YouGov predicts SNP will make 'massive' gains.

Except that it doesn't. In the article you refer to - "Having laid out one possible scenario, I should make clear this is NOT a prediction".

Also, the 43% SNP figure is from the separately reported Scottish component weighted sample of 183. Such a small figure that it simply isn't credible in isolation.

Start reading the damn things instead of picking the populist stuff and we'd all have better information. Grrr.

[Crùbag]

Now this, this would be sensational.

The SNP would be looking at 48 seats, Labour losing all but 6 of their seats. Crazy. That would be an absolute landslide. Jim Murphy would lose his seat to the Tories, who would gain a couple of seats. The Lib Dems would retain the Northern Isles, of course.

I can't see it being replicated on the day, but it would be an absolute kicking for Labour and prove that whilst the majority of voters here don't want independence, almost all of "the 45" and a good portion of the No voters are happy to back the SNP as the natural party of Scotland.

Also with the "Shy Tory" factor, we could be looking at the unbelievable scenario where the Tories overtake Labour in the popular vote into second place.

Apparently the SNP would be on 49 seats:

SNP 49 +43 Labour 6 -35 Liberal Democrat 2 -9 Conservative 2 +1 Green 0 UKIP 0 Other 0

Small poll admittedly but YouGov seem to carry a lot of weight in this field. Plus it would tally with the referendum result. It's entirely plausible that many working class no-voters as well as those who voted Yes will give up on Labour but also that many middle-class SNP voters will continue to vote SNP as the Union won't be directly threatened. Personally, if it does pan out this way, and the promised devo-max doesn't materialise, then the SNP should push to declare independence - especially if the combined SNP and Green vote is more than 50% regardless of the number of seats.

Taxi for Danny too, it seems! (edit - just noticed that story is a few months old. Probably tallies with the new poll though)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/28/danny-alexander-lose-liberal-democrat-election_n_5403140.html

Another Labour stalwart bails out in Glasgow an aw:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/labour-chief-quits-amid-vote-fallout.25484429

[renton]

Apparently the SNP would be on 49 seats:

SNP 49 +43 Labour 6 -35 Liberal Democrat 2 -9 Conservative 2 +1 Green 0 UKIP 0 Other 0

Small poll admittedly but YouGov seem to carry a lot of weight in this field. Plus it would tally with the referendum result. It's entirely plausible that many working class no-voters as well as those who voted Yes will give up on Labour but also that many middle-class SNP voters will continue to vote SNP as the Union won't be directly threatened. Personally, if it does pan out this way, and the promised devo-max doesn't materialise, then the SNP should push to declare independence - especially if the combined SNP and Green vote is more than 50% regardless of the number of seats.

Taxi for Danny too, it seems! (edit - just noticed that story is a few months old. Probably tallies with the new poll though)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/28/danny-alexander-lose-liberal-democrat-election_n_5403140.html

Another Labour stalwart bails out in Glasgow an aw:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/labour-chief-quits-amid-vote-fallout.25484429

Sub polls are not reliable indicators, but it'll be interesting to see how much variation we see in the numbers. Over time, if the sub sample stays relatively steady then it's possible that the numbers are reasonably close to reality, if they move wildy from poll to poll, then they are well off.

[Desert Nomad]

The Tories targeting Pete Wishart at Westminster is nothing new. They did it last time & he trebled his majority. Although Perthshire voted 60-40 in favour of the union on September 18th, I really can`t see them dislodging Wishart. It`d take a huge effort, and I`m really not sure what type of person they`d target? All the lairds, farmers and their workers already all vote Tory anyway. They`d have to somehow convince working people in Perth to vote Tory. I do actually think there`s a fair skelp of people in Perthshire who vote SNP and said No to independence. Wishart is a decent constituency MP to boot, can`t see him in any danger.