Referendum Maths

[Gordon EF]

So the results will come in from Scotland's 32 local authorities, here's a list of all of them from largest to smallest population...

1. Glasgow - 595,550

2. Edinburgh - 487,500

3. Fife - 365,000

4. North Lanarkshire - 338,000

5. South Lanarkshire - 314,000

6. Aberdeenshire - 253,000

7. Highland - 232,000

8. Aberdeen - 220,420

9. Renfrewshire - 175,000

10. West Lothian - 175,000

11. Falkirk - 156,000

12. Dumfries and Galloway - 151,000

13. Dundee - 147,285

14. Perth and Kinross - 147,000

15. North Ayrshire - 138,000

16. East Ayrshire - 123,000

17. Angus - 116,000

18. Borders - 114,000

19. South Ayrshire - 113,000

20. East Dunbartonshire - 105,000

21. East Lothian - 100,000

22. Moray - 93,000

23. West Dunbartonshire - 91,000

24. East Renfrewshire - 91,000

25. Stirling - 90,000

26. Argyll and Bute - 88,000

27. Midlothian - 83,000

28. Inverclyde - 81,000

29. Clackmannanshire - 51,000

30. Na h-Eileanan Siar - 27,400

31. Shetland - 23,000

32. Orkney - 21,000

The 1997 devolution referendum is probably the best 'previous data' we have to go on in terms of a direct comparison. The first question 'I agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament' was answered Yes, nationally by 74.3% of the electorate. To get to 50:50 in the independence referendum, we'd need a 24.3% movement from Yes to No. If that's what we saw in each local authority area, these are the results we should expect, starting from highest %age Yes vote to lowest %age Yes vote.

1. West Dunbartonshire: Y - 60.4, N - 39.6

2. Glasgow: Y - 59.3, N - 40.7

3. North Lanarkshire: Y - 58.3, N - 41.7

4. East Ayrshire: Y - 56.8, N - 43.2

5. Clackmannanshire: Y - 55.7, N - 44.3

6. Falkirk: Y - 55.7, N - 44.3

7. Midlothian: Y - 55.6, N - 44.4

8. West Lothian: Y - 55.3, N - 44.7

9. Na h-Eileanan Siar: Y - 55.1, N - 44.9

10. Dundee: Y - 54.7, N - 45.3

11. Renfrewshire: Y - 54.7, N - 45.3

12. Inverclyde: Y - 53.7, N - 46.3

13. South Lanarkshire: Y - 53.5, N - 46.5

14. North Ayrshire: Y - 52, N - 48

15. Fife: Y - 51.8, N - 48.2

16. East Lothain: Y - 49.9, N - 50.1

17. Highland: Y - 48.3, N - 51.7

18. Edinburgh: Y - 47.6, N - 52.4

19. Aberdeen: Y - 47.5, N - 52.5

20. East Dunbartonshire: Y - 45.5, N - 54.5

21. Stirling: Y - 44.2, N - 55.8

22. Argyll and Bute: Y - 43, N - 57

23. Moray: Y - 42.9, N - 57.1

24. South Ayrshire: Y - 42.6, N - 57.4

25. Angus: Y - 40.4, N - 59.6

26. Aberdeenshire: Y - 39.6, N - 60.4

27. Borders: Y - 38.5, N - 61.5

28. Shetland: Y - 38.1, N - 61.9

29. East Renfrweshire: Y - 37.4, N - 62.6

30. Perth and Kinross: Y - 37.4, N - 62.6

31. Dumfries and Galloway: Y - 36.4, N - 63.6

32. Orkney: Y - 33, N - 67

A few surprises in there. Some SNP strongholds were amongst the lowest Yes voters. I assume that's because the non-SNP voters in these areas are were more entrenched anti-devolutionists than in more traditional Labour areas. Also some strong Labour strongholds were incredibely pro-Yes. I know Labour supported devolution but I would still have thought SNP voters would have been stronger Yes than Labour voters, in general.

Aside from this being a different question and being 17 years ago, the main difference I would expect is that strong Labour areas like Dunbartonshire and Lanarkshire will be less Yes this time than last, with probably some of the newer SNP 'strongholds' like Dundee and Angus being more heavily Yes than in 1997.

[Confidemus]

Here's some more maths

UK - Scotland =

[pandarilla]

What's the estimated results times?

Who will be first to declare? And looking at those island votes I don't fancy having a tiny Yes lead on the Friday waiting on their returns...

[BlackIsleBud]

Can't see Highland with less than 50%......the good guys are well on top - especially in the towns.....

[Casual Bystander]

Can't see Highland with less than 50%......the good guys are well on top - especially in the towns.....

What? With the juggernaut that is Danny Alexander as their MP (well part of it anyway). Surely not.

[BlackIsleBud]

What? With the juggernaut that is Danny Alexander as their MP (well part of it anyway). Surely not.

I know! Shocking but true. That uber-twat-muppet is roundly despised by most folks here. He was out on Inverness high street with UKIP yesterday. The c**t.

[Jamaldo]

What's the estimated results times?

Who will be first to declare? And looking at those island votes I don't fancy having a tiny Yes lead on the Friday waiting on their returns...

I can't speak for Orkney and Shetland but we should return a comfortable Yes up here in the Western Isles.

[FlyerTon]

I take it there will be exit polls?

So at what time should we have a rough idea if it's going to be a yes or no on the night?

[forza ton]

If yes win inverclyde it will be a very good indication as to whether enough labour punters have voted yes

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Why was East Renfrewshire so anti-devolution? I thought that was staunch Labour territory.

[Enigma]

No surprises in the bottom 6 in that table and expect them to be the bottom 6 for yes this time round too, except Perth and Kinross perhaps. The rest will all be shuffled somewhat.

[Michael W]

If yes win inverclyde it will be a very good indication as to whether enough labour punters have voted yes

You can say the same for more or less the whole of Central Scotland, tbh.

[forza ton]

You can say the same for more or less the whole of Central Scotland, tbh.

Aye, pretty much. It's just been so frustrating living here under our inept Labour MP, MSP and council. Wankers the lot of them.

[Michael W]

Aye, pretty much. It's just been so frustrating living here under our inept Labour MP, MSP and council. Wankers the lot of them.

Self preservation in action for many, I'm afraid.

I can never understand why that happens at Council level, though. I can understand it at Holyrood/Westminster level, but I can't for the life of me see why you would keep voting in the same councilors if they're failing. They have very little power anyway, and the big bad Tories can't privatise the NHS or whatever the flavour of the month is from the Labour PR team. Changing your vote from Labour isn't automatically going to let the Tories in either.

In saying that, Fife got rid of Labour a few years ago and had a LD/SNP coalition (now Labour again). They were crap as well and also inflicted the awful 'green corridor' on Kirkcaldy. There is an element of fighting a losing battle, but you have to at least give someone else a chance sometimes.

[Confidemus]

Self preservation in action for many, I'm afraid.

I can never understand why that happens at Council level, though. I can understand it at Holyrood/Westminster level, but I can't for the life of me see why you would keep voting in the same councilors if they're failing. They have very little power anyway, and the big bad Tories can't privatise the NHS or whatever the flavour of the month is from the Labour PR team. Changing your vote from Labour isn't automatically going to let the Tories in either.

In saying that, Fife got rid of Labour a few years ago and had a LD/SNP coalition (now Labour again). They were crap as well and also inflicted the awful 'green corridor' on Kirkcaldy. There is an element of fighting a losing battle, but you have to at least give someone else a chance sometimes.

Sadly, a lot of Labour voters would still vote for a mannequin if you sellotaped a red rosette to their tit.

[QPSAFalkirkFirm]

Gordon EF- I'm staggered by the level of detail to the same level as my jealousy that you have so much spare time. Can I come to your bit for the count?

10/10

[Gordon EF]

Gordon EF- I'm staggered by the level of detail to the same level as my jealousy that you have so much spare time. Can I come to your bit for the count?

10/10

Aye, the more the merrier. I'll be laying out spreadsheets, pie charts and giving short power point presentations through the night. I'm currently building my own 'swingometer' made out of old cereal boxes.

[Granny Danger]

Aye, the more the merrier. I'll be laying out spreadsheets, pie charts and giving short power point presentations through the night. I'm currently building my own 'swingometer' made out of old cereal boxes.

Far too vague IMO.

Is it Cornflakes or Cocoa Pops?

[QPSAFalkirkFirm]

Aye, the more the merrier. I'll be laying out spreadsheets, pie charts and giving short power point presentations through the night. I'm currently building my own 'swingometer' made out of old cereal boxes.

I'm more of a bar chart man. Can you be flexible?

[Gordon EF]

Far too vague IMO.

Is it Cornflakes or Cocoa Pops?

Blueberry Wheats. For all other questions, I'll be releasing a White Paper next week some time. Drinks and nibbles will be avaialble but I'm not telling you what they are or how many there are until you turn up.