Alex Salmond Heads Down to London - June 2016

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Surely the most obvious flaw in the OP was that the FM would have to go to the Bank of England to borrow money. The scottish treasury would borrow directly from international bond markets, probably having to stick within a deficit range agreed by both parties.

There is planned for borrowing already eg £2.5 billion in 2018/19 - and that with pretty optimistic estimates of oil revenues. If the shortfall of £4 billion in oil revenues in 2013/14 is repeated then you are looking at potentially a £6.5 billion borrowing - assuming of course the SG does not choose to raise taxes or cut back on their expenditure plans. If there were CU (and I still doubt it) - would that be in the deficit range? That's where having an iCurrency would be more attractive - easier access to the international bond markets because you have a central bank to back them up. It's still why I would argue strongly for an iCurrency to be pursued sooner rather than later if there were an iScotland.

[AUFC90]

I think a separate currency is a good idea but it would be a disaster if it happened straight away. Our current account surplus and oil revenues would make it very hard to stop our currency getting very strong which would affect our exports. An I-currency needs to be carefully planned over a period of yours. A currency union will do in the short term.

[Gordon EF]

tl,dr

[strichener]

There is planned for borrowing already eg £2.5 billion in 2018/19 - and that with pretty optimistic estimates of oil revenues. If the shortfall of £4 billion in oil revenues in 2013/14 is repeated then you are looking at potentially a £6.5 billion borrowing - assuming of course the SG does not choose to raise taxes or cut back on their expenditure plans. If there were CU (and I still doubt it) - would that be in the deficit range? That's where having an iCurrency would be more attractive - easier access to the international bond markets because you have a central bank to back them up. It's still why I would argue strongly for an iCurrency to be pursued sooner rather than later if there were an iScotland.

So even taking the worst scenario, Scotland would have to borrow 6.5bln on £140bln GDP which equates to 4.64%. The UK has borrowed more than this in every year since 2008.

The OBR (you know those people that you keep using for oil forecasts) in 2010 predicted that the UK would borrow £60bln in the last financial year. They were only out by 80% as it was £108bln. It also forecast that borrowing for the current year would be £37bln and it is projected to be £95bln again only out by £58bln.

If ever there were a case of Jam tomorrow, it is the UK official projections.

[Bar78]

Obviously it would depend on what the deficit agreement was. If it was 3% like the EU is supposed to be then your scenario would put the government in a position where it would have to look to other ways to balance the books be it tax rises or spending cuts. Either way it would only be right to try and balance the books as much as is possible.

I think it's rUK that is scared stiff of being tied into an agreement where it has to be fiscally responsible. Imagine the Tories trying to sell a tax rise to the electorate in S. England.

[lichtgilphead]

She's really old.

In actual fact, I think her advanced years are commensurate with Alec Salmond's burdgeoning waistband.

In a nutshell, he's fat and she's auld.

Thanks Confi.

It's always good to have a reminder of who is fat, who is old and what the relationship is between those individuals.

Otherwise, the lack of clear concise information may detract from the other serious arguments put forward in favour of the union.