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Yes voters: Do you think it will happen?


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With a few weeks to go, where are you at, optimism wise?

I've said for quite a while now, that I'm sure it'll be a No vote. The last week or two have given me ever so slightly fizzy baws though. The second debate, PatronisingBTLady getting so much coverage, hearing quite a number of previously undecided/No's I know wavering or changing to Yes; I've started at times to get into it.

Another thing that gets me irrationally excited is my observation that people - including undecideds and No's seem to always talk about "when we're Independent". It's a bizarre paradox, given the polls but I literally only hear people talk about a Yes vote.*

I get the impression that a lot of people just sense the mood with politics and vote to agree with everyone and be right, so this encourages me.

I'm expecting Dave's trip today to not go down well either, it does feel likes there's something in the air.

Tl:dr: expecting a No, but irrational do have a tiny bit of hope.

*IRL I mean. The polling and gambling aficianados on here are well on top of it already being won for No.

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Yeah, I do. Although I certainly wouldn't put money on it.

The momentum is with the Yes camp but they are constantly having to fight against the dirty tricks from large swathes of the media and from UK civil service. The very fact that it's got closer with all the amount of shite, fear and doom being thrown about by the Bitter camp only goes to show there is a distinct chance.

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Fully expect a 'No' majority, but considering it's what? less than 20 years since devolution? I see it as a case of chipping away. Perhaps after another 20 years of competent governance from Holyrood and the complete omni-shambles of Westminster, the lightbulb might finally go on for a good number of current 'No' voters and we'll have another referendum with a different outcome.

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Can see it being a no vote, but a lot closer one than some seem to think.

Too close in fact for anything other than promises of greatly increased autonomy which will eventually lead to de facto independence.

I've seen a lot of Yes voters saying that if the result is extremely close then things won't remain the same and that they will have to change, to the benefit of Scotland ultimately.

I would suggest those people read this:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/scots-will-suffer-if-the-vote-is-no-experts-on-quebec-warn.24489638

"The No vote in 1995 was so narrow - the difference was fewer than 50,000 - some thought the narrow victory for No would force concessions, more autonomy. It did not."
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I doubt any of the PatronisingBTLady stuff will make a difference - a lot of these social media crazes are really one side talking to themselves. A former adviser to the Yes campaign was in the papers at the weekend saying something similar, that Yes were talking to themselves a lot in meetings, in the media and online. I'd bet that is the same for most political campaigns online though and the No side has the same issue.

I also think that a closer vote might shore up the No vote, in terms of turnout. It's generally accepted that Yes voters are more motivated but if things are closer that could motivate people who were planning to vote No to turnout where they might not have. I doubt it would make a big difference but if it's close then all votes are important.

I think Yes' biggest asset is the fact that they are motivated and probably have a better canvassing operation. This vote is THE big thing for people on the Yes side whereas No people geneally (not all) see it as a distraction, an irritant.

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I'm voting Yes, but I'm afraid that too many people won't want to risk it for economic reasons. I'm not saying that they're as daft as Patronising Lady - it's more that some people have a reasonably 'comfortable' lifestyle, and really don't care enough about poverty, social justice, and democracy to risk it. I think they'll compare their own economic situation with what it might be in the event of a Yes vote, and not want to risk losing what they've got. The scaremongering hasn't helped, of course.

That's why I think it'll be a No vote - not enough people will have the spine to vote against the status quo.

I hope to f**k I'm wrong.

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In reply to the OP I'm genuinely changing my mind of whether I think it will happen every week.

My positive side says:

- In the event of a turnout of, say, 75%, I honestly cannot see over 1,500,000 people voting No. It just doesn't seem possible that so many people could fall for the nonsense that BT come out with, and that so many people can possibly be happy with things as they currently are.

- History. History is generally on our side with regards to independence referendums. Yes usually wins and we've voted for the motion in the previous two devolution referendums in 79' and 97'.

My negative side:

- The politicians vote. Yes has no chance of winning this as the majority of MSPs and Scottish MPs are anti-independence.

- Past discussions. People recycling the same nonsense they hear of the telly, and you genuinely can't believe they've said it.

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I think it will be tight. If I was betting I would probably still think it'll be a No, but you never know. I have a horrible feeling that too many folk will shite it and go with what they know.

My wee brother stuck £150 on a Yes vote at 9/2. He's confident but I can't see me following suit.

Either way, a strong Yes vote is a must for Scotland. If it's around the 30% mark, then Westminster will see it as a green light to f**k us over for the next few years. The message they would take is 'everything's Rosy, let's ramp up the cuts'.

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I think Yes' biggest asset is the fact that they are motivated and probably have a better canvassing operation. This vote is THE big thing for people on the Yes side whereas No people geneally (not all) see it as a distraction, an irritant.

My hope is that more Yes people than No will bother turning up to vote for that reason. Betting on a narrow No though.

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