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The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23


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For those giving Dave Cormack a good kicking on here, can I point out that the piece put out by him is entitled "SPFL Broadcasting Deal : A Perspective". In other words his point of view on it, and not the definitive take. 

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47 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

For those giving Dave Cormack a good kicking on here, can I point out that the piece put out by him is entitled "SPFL Broadcasting Deal : A Perspective". In other words his point of view on it, and not the definitive take. 

I think it's his point of view that folk are being critical of rather than anything else.

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1 hour ago, AJF said:

 

This whole opportunity cost is also interesting. In that thread they gave examples where there was no material difference in attendances and others where it actually increased following their TV deal. I’m not sure how that would adapt to any potential SPFL deal but it is really just speculation.

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

Without doing a spreadsheet and a regression, my impression is that Sunday lunch and midweek games are always more poorly attended than the equivalent fixture on Saturday at 3.

I agree that there's speculation, but i think that informed speculation would tend to support the contention that tv would cannibalise other income. 

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1 hour ago, Clown Job said:

Fucking cringe

I hate the premier league. Zero interest in that level of money in the game. I also detest the boring champions league. I may be in a minority. See that stupid advert for sky that the game is only live once? How patronising. Yes, Sky, it’s LIVE once, and I prefer to be present, not watching on tv. If it’s on tv there’s nothing LIVE about it.

Edited by andrewh
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3 minutes ago, andrewh said:

I hate the premier league. Zero interest in that level of money in the game. I also detest the boring champions league. I may be in a minority. See that stupid advert for sky that the game is only live once? How patronising. Yes, Sky, it’s LIVE once, and I prefer to be present, not watching on tv. If it’s on tv there’s nothing LIVE about it.

What he said

 

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8 minutes ago, coprolite said:

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

Without doing a spreadsheet and a regression, my impression is that Sunday lunch and midweek games are always more poorly attended than the equivalent fixture on Saturday at 3.

I agree that there's speculation, but i think that informed speculation would tend to support the contention that tv would cannibalise other income. 

Which is all fair comments. I suppose then it comes down to whether the hit on other income streams is made up or exceeded by any additional revenue the clubs would make from an increased broadcasting deal.

Maybe I am more naïve to the impact shifted kick off times would have given that in the last couple of years a Saturday 3pm kick off has been a novelty due to our Europe League participation. I also can't remember the last time I was at an away fixture for a Saturday 3pm kick off.

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1 hour ago, kingjoey said:

For those giving Dave Cormack a good kicking on here, can I point out that the piece put out by him is entitled "SPFL Broadcasting Deal : A Perspective". In other words his point of view on it, and not the definitive take. 

Posters are giving Dave a kicking for his PoV. Not  sure what other take there is here.

Anyway. It's not about the 48 games Sky broadcast.  It's about the 180 games they don't yet exercise control over that is the major problem here.

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42 minutes ago, AJF said:

Which is all fair comments. I suppose then it comes down to whether the hit on other income streams is made up or exceeded by any additional revenue the clubs would make from an increased broadcasting deal.

Maybe I am more naïve to the impact shifted kick off times would have given that in the last couple of years a Saturday 3pm kick off has been a novelty due to our Europe League participation. I also can't remember the last time I was at an away fixture for a Saturday 3pm kick off.

I agree it does. I'm not saying i agree with Dave and the SPFL's view on that point, but it is a matter of judgement and they'll bear the cost more than i will for getting it wrong. 

I'd be surprised if Rangers have had double figures away at 3 on Saturday over the last two years

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1 hour ago, coprolite said:

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

 

That study is twenty years old and is looking at a season when the live SPL games were televised free-to-air into every home with a tv in the country.

It's a completely different thing to ask what impact paywall tv has on attendances in our league. Indeed, it's hard to know for sure either way since so many of the live games we have feature the Old Firm. Chris Robinson made the point at that time that having games against the OF on free-to-air tv on a Sunday afternoon was costing Hearts money. Not rocket science; our most expensive tickets of the season, likely to lose, put that on BBC1 and some folk will stay home.

The question is how that translates to the modern model.

Only example I could be bothered checking in the last minute or so showed that last season Motherwell got a bigger home crowd for their televised Sunday game with Hibs on the opening day than they did for the untelevised repeat of that fixture midweek later in the season. Maybe games at weekends just get bigger crowds regardless?

- Just had one more check, and Dundee also got a bigger crowd for their televised home Sunday game v Hibs last season than for the subsequent midweek repeat. I've just quite easily found plenty of non-televised Dundee home games in the following weeks with significantly lower crowds than the televised game. So, it seems a stretch to say that fans will stay away from paywalled games.

When we were all making fun of Ron Gordon a while back it was established that his pish about opening weekend attracting huge crowds was just that, pish. So maybe the difference is weekend v midweek rather than televised or not. Especially since tv subscriptions are not cheap and fans of most Scottish clubs know their team won't be on that much.

Edited by VincentGuerin
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1 hour ago, VincentGuerin said:

That study is twenty years old and is looking at a season when the live SPL games were televised free-to-air into every home with a tv in the country.

It's a completely different thing to ask what impact paywall tv has on attendances in our league. Indeed, it's hard to know for sure either way since so many of the live games we have feature the Old Firm. Chris Robinson made the point at that time that having games against the OF on free-to-air tv on a Sunday afternoon was costing Hearts money. Not rocket science; our most expensive tickets of the season, likely to lose, put that on BBC1 and some folk will stay home.

The question is how that translates to the modern model.

Only example I could be bothered checking in the last minute or so showed that last season Motherwell got a bigger home crowd for their televised Sunday game with Hibs on the opening day than they did for the untelevised repeat of that fixture midweek later in the season. Maybe games at weekends just get bigger crowds regardless?

- Just had one more check, and Dundee also got a bigger crowd for their televised home Sunday game v Hibs last season than for the subsequent midweek repeat. I've just quite easily found plenty of non-televised Dundee home games in the following weeks with significantly lower crowds than the televised game. So, it seems a stretch to say that fans will stay away from paywalled games.

When we were all making fun of Ron Gordon a while back it was established that his pish about opening weekend attracting huge crowds was just that, pish. So maybe the difference is weekend v midweek rather than televised or not. Especially since tv subscriptions are not cheap and fans of most Scottish clubs know their team won't be on that much.

You wouldn't let it lie would you.  What you've done there is made me do a spreadsheet.  I've used pre-covid seasons and looked at games where Aberdeen had games televised.  Where there was an equivalent fixture that wasn't televised , I've calculated the difference in attendance.

  Over 11 data points there is a clear correlation between televised games- with a mean % reduction of 9.2% There might be other causes for the variation.  But this data is consistent with the hypothesis that televising games reduces attendance. 

season Live game Att day equivalent not on tele att  day TV reduction    
              number %  
1819 Kilmarnock Away 5,270 Sun y 6,531 Sat 1,261 19.3%  
1819 Hibs H 15,629 Fri y 18,631 Sun 3,002 16.1%  
1819 Celtic H 20,027 Wed n     n/a    
1819 Rangers H 18,190 Wed y 19,046 Sun 856 4.5%  
1819 Rangers A 49,667 Sun y 49,711 Wed 44 0.1%  
1819 Celtic H 15,189 Sat n     n/a    
1819 Hearts H 14,371 Fri y 16,451 Sat 2,080 12.6%  
1718 Motherwell A 4,545 Sun y 4,127 Tue -418 -10.1%  
1718 Celtic H 20,528 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Kilmarnock Away 4,198 Sun y 5,067 Sat 869 17.2%  
1718 Rangers A 48,647 Wed y 49,707 Wed 1,060 2.1%  
1718 Rangers H 18,983 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Dundee A 6,541 Fri n     n/a    
1718 Hibs H  14,923 Sat y 17,822 Sat 2,899 16.3%  
1718 Celtic H 17,026 Sun n     n/a    
1718 Hearts H 14,045 Fri y 18,371 Sat 4,326 23.5%  
1718 Rangers H 17,745 Sat n     n/a    
1718 Celtic A 59,048 Sun y 58,975 Sat -73 -0.1%  

 

 

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3 hours ago, coprolite said:

You wouldn't let it lie would you.  What you've done there is made me do a spreadsheet.  I've used pre-covid seasons and looked at games where Aberdeen had games televised.  Where there was an equivalent fixture that wasn't televised , I've calculated the difference in attendance.

  Over 11 data points there is a clear correlation between televised games- with a mean % reduction of 9.2% There might be other causes for the variation.  But this data is consistent with the hypothesis that televising games reduces attendance. 

season Live game Att day equivalent not on tele att  day TV reduction    
              number %  
1819 Kilmarnock Away 5,270 Sun y 6,531 Sat 1,261 19.3%  
1819 Hibs H 15,629 Fri y 18,631 Sun 3,002 16.1%  
1819 Celtic H 20,027 Wed n     n/a    
1819 Rangers H 18,190 Wed y 19,046 Sun 856 4.5%  
1819 Rangers A 49,667 Sun y 49,711 Wed 44 0.1%  
1819 Celtic H 15,189 Sat n     n/a    
1819 Hearts H 14,371 Fri y 16,451 Sat 2,080 12.6%  
1718 Motherwell A 4,545 Sun y 4,127 Tue -418 -10.1%  
1718 Celtic H 20,528 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Kilmarnock Away 4,198 Sun y 5,067 Sat 869 17.2%  
1718 Rangers A 48,647 Wed y 49,707 Wed 1,060 2.1%  
1718 Rangers H 18,983 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Dundee A 6,541 Fri n     n/a    
1718 Hibs H  14,923 Sat y 17,822 Sat 2,899 16.3%  
1718 Celtic H 17,026 Sun n     n/a    
1718 Hearts H 14,045 Fri y 18,371 Sat 4,326 23.5%  
1718 Rangers H 17,745 Sat n     n/a    
1718 Celtic A 59,048 Sun y 58,975 Sat -73 -0.1%  

 

 

Fair play to you. But I don't think that does my query much damage, really.

What I see there is more evidence of weeknight games with lower crowds than weekend games.

Of course there are always going to be other factors. Time of year, form, fixture congestion taking the edge of some attendances, weather etc. And for a game involving a long journey for away fans (Aberdeen at Killie, non-OF Central Belt teams going up to the northern wilderness), televising a game will obviously take numbers off an away support.

And I'm obviously not saying that the broadcast of a game on the tv will have no impact on the crowd.

But I'd disagree that what you've laid out there is conclusive. Hearts at Pittodrie on a Friday night gets a smaller crowd (but still in line with what Aberdeen had been getting in the lead-up to that game) than on a Saturday during the festive season? I mean...

And again, Aberdeen got a normal crowd for their televised game with Hibs (check the fixtures around the televised Hibs one excluding Rangers and the festive Saturday game with Hearts) then a bumper one for the non-televised game as it was the third-last game against a direct competitor chasing second in the league. Indeed, the crowd for their televised game with Hibs was their second-best non-OF gate in a run of eight home games from September to March.

Context, context, context.

Edited by VincentGuerin
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With the new TV deal, streaming is permitted with immediate effect (up to five home games per year). Saturday 3pm’s aren’t permitted.

Moving the two United games to 6pm and the Hibs game to Friday night now makes a lot of sense.

Potentially opens up the following games for PPV:

United away 8th Oct
Hearts home 16th Oct
Hibs home 4th Nov
Livi away 9th Nov
United home 12th Nov
Killie away 28th Dec
County home 2nd Jan
St Mirren home 1st Feb

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9 hours ago, lubo_blaha said:

With the new TV deal, streaming is permitted with immediate effect (up to five home games per year). Saturday 3pm’s aren’t permitted.

Moving the two United games to 6pm and the Hibs game to Friday night now makes a lot of sense.

Potentially opens up the following games for PPV:

United away 8th Oct
Hearts home 16th Oct
Hibs home 4th Nov
Livi away 9th Nov
United home 12th Nov
Killie away 28th Dec
County home 2nd Jan
St Mirren home 1st Feb

Enough of that positivity, old shiny teeth hasn’t got a clue and isn’t to be trusted.

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12 hours ago, big al said:

Enough of that positivity, old shiny teeth hasn’t got a clue and isn’t to be trusted.

Really positive if moving the two home games against United and Hibs means you cannot attend them when you could have if they were 3pm on a Saturday but it’s alright you can pay again to watch PPV. 

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22 minutes ago, Jute said:

Really positive if moving the two home games against United and Hibs means you cannot attend them when you could have if they were 3pm on a Saturday but it’s alright you can pay again to watch PPV. 

Who would be paying again?

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