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The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23


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8 minutes ago, AJF said:

Yes, I believe that is correct. But the way I see it, while Sky may only show 48 games, the deal we have in place with them prevents us from brokering a deal with another broadcaster to show any more. So in effect, the deal with Sky is for all of our matches because it prohibits our ability to sell the remainder to anyone even if they don't get shown on Sky.

That's why I think the value per game stuff is all a bit misleading.

It’s no more misleading than comparing the deals like for like. Probably a better way of comparing, if anything.

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12 minutes ago, AJF said:

Yes, I believe that is correct. But the way I see it, while Sky may only show 48 games, the deal we have in place with them prevents us from brokering a deal with another broadcaster to show any more. So in effect, the deal with Sky is for all of our matches because it prohibits our ability to sell the remainder to anyone even if they don't get shown on Sky.

That's why I think the value per game stuff is all a bit misleading.

There are probably three or four ways of looking at this, but the bottom line is that Sweden have the rights to all the matches and can and do show them all. Sky have the pick of all of the matches but only show 48. The two deals are totally different. 

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53 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

While I understand unhappiness with DC statement and how he has phrased it, he may not have had too much choice. Even if 5 clubs want to go "another way", there are still many who will happily accept the status quo.

FWIW, I know that Hibs (and I suspect Aberdeen and the others in that wee group) were looking into what some other countries do about selling rights live on matchdays - not just to fans abroad - kinda like we had during covid.

I fully expect some similar mealy mouthed pish from our owner too.

From August, before the extension was negotiated:

HIBS chief Ron Gordon reckons the new SPFL TV deal IS good for the game - and reckons it can help clubs reach their £50 million jackpot goal.

The Easter Road supremo believes Sky Sports are the 'best partners' for the Scottish game, and reckons that view is 'validated by the findings of this week's Deloitte report.

The report, commissioned by Hibs and four other clubs, looked into how to increase revenues in our game.

Premiership clubs now reckon they can be aiming to increase annual revenue in the SPFL to £50 million by 2029.

That would be a big jump from the £28.5m shared among the SPFL's clubs last season.

SunSport revealed last week that the SPFL were closing in on a new agreement with Premiership broadcasters Sky.

It would be a deal worth £30m per season that includes 60 live matches, 12 more than the current deal.

Clubs would also have the opportunity to broadcast five games on PPV that aren't selected for televised coverage.

Response to the proposed new deal have been varied, but Hibs chief Gordon has backed it.

He said: “I feel Sky are the best partners for us but the Deloitte report also validated this. I feel they are the best partner for us, for a variety of reasons.

"They are tried and true and all we are trying to do is to make it better.

“It is also the home of the best football in the UK. The Premier League is there and we are the little brother of the Premier League.

"If you want to see top football then you want to be on Sky. That is not to say there won’t be other players further down the road because we will have opportunities to go with a second package in three years, assuming this Sky deal moves the way we all think it is going to move.

"I don’t have any visibility of anybody who can play to the level of Sky as it stands.”

Gordon also confirmed the pay-per-view discussions.

During the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, clubs were able to broadcast non-televised matches on their in-house TV channels, but the 3pm Saturday blackout has returned this campaign for games not picked for broadcast.

He added: “We are also in talks about pay-per-view. We don’t have that at the moment and we are trying to carve that out, which would be excellent.

 

"We want to protect our gate, have more exposure and create another revenue through the pay-per-view which we currently don’t have.”

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1 hour ago, coprolite said:

It’s no more misleading than comparing the deals like for like. Probably a better way of comparing, if anything.

 

1 hour ago, kingjoey said:

There are probably three or four ways of looking at this, but the bottom line is that Sweden have the rights to all the matches and can and do show them all. Sky have the pick of all of the matches but only show 48. The two deals are totally different. 

I think we will probably need to agree to disagree on it. It seems to be getting widespread ridicule, with many Aberdeen fans saying the same.

I think this highlights why it comes across as disingenuous

 

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18 minutes ago, AJF said:

 

I think we will probably need to agree to disagree on it. It seems to be getting widespread ridicule, with many Aberdeen fans saying the same.

I think this highlights why it comes across as disingenuous

 

This Richard Wilson chap didn’t say “I don’t believe it” once. An imposter conjured by by Sky to make big Dave look like a fanny IMO (in my opinion). 

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44 minutes ago, AJF said:

 

I think we will probably need to agree to disagree on it. It seems to be getting widespread ridicule, with many Aberdeen fans saying the same.

I think this highlights why it comes across as disingenuous

 

"But given that TV games don’t really cost anything extra to put on compared to normal games," 

False. They have an opportunity cost in forgone revenue from other sources. 

He's calculated that £7.8m could be a break even for lost ST sales in a worst case scenario. That looks like possibly a reasonably based estimate. To balance out the fact that that's worst case, it doesn't include hospitality, walk ups etc. I'd expect hospitality to be worst hit and that's a big part of Aberdeen's strategy.  Where's the evidence that anything like that is acheivable? 

And he doesn't make any further pertinent arguments. He makes an assertion that there's "no interest in finding out" if there's a better deal, without any support for that assertion. 

I'm sure i recognise this guy's name from the banter years as a sevco propagandist and this just reads like a regurgitation of Stewart Robinson's unsupported contentions (acknowledging that Dave's statement that they've talked to the market is also unsupported). 

I don't know why the clubs are behind this deal and feel the need to push it through now.

I do find it hard to believe that a load of rich and successful people who are going to be on the hook for underwriting losses would willingly and knowingly enter into a deal that increases those losses, if they don't need to. 

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1 hour ago, coprolite said:

"But given that TV games don’t really cost anything extra to put on compared to normal games," 

False. They have an opportunity cost in forgone revenue from other sources. 

He's calculated that £7.8m could be a break even for lost ST sales in a worst case scenario. That looks like possibly a reasonably based estimate. To balance out the fact that that's worst case, it doesn't include hospitality, walk ups etc. I'd expect hospitality to be worst hit and that's a big part of Aberdeen's strategy.  Where's the evidence that anything like that is acheivable? 

And he doesn't make any further pertinent arguments. He makes an assertion that there's "no interest in finding out" if there's a better deal, without any support for that assertion. 

I'm sure i recognise this guy's name from the banter years as a sevco propagandist and this just reads like a regurgitation of Stewart Robinson's unsupported contentions (acknowledging that Dave's statement that they've talked to the market is also unsupported). 

I don't know why the clubs are behind this deal and feel the need to push it through now.

I do find it hard to believe that a load of rich and successful people who are going to be on the hook for underwriting losses would willingly and knowingly enter into a deal that increases those losses, if they don't need to. 

I’ve never come across him before today so you may be correct that he is critical due to his leanings. But it would be hard to level that accusation at everyone who has been critical of Cormack’s comments and there is an abundance of them.

This whole opportunity cost is also interesting. In that thread they gave examples where there was no material difference in attendances and others where it actually increased following their TV deal. I’m not sure how that would adapt to any potential SPFL deal but it is really just speculation.

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47 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

For those giving Dave Cormack a good kicking on here, can I point out that the piece put out by him is entitled "SPFL Broadcasting Deal : A Perspective". In other words his point of view on it, and not the definitive take. 

I think it's his point of view that folk are being critical of rather than anything else.

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1 hour ago, AJF said:

 

This whole opportunity cost is also interesting. In that thread they gave examples where there was no material difference in attendances and others where it actually increased following their TV deal. I’m not sure how that would adapt to any potential SPFL deal but it is really just speculation.

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

Without doing a spreadsheet and a regression, my impression is that Sunday lunch and midweek games are always more poorly attended than the equivalent fixture on Saturday at 3.

I agree that there's speculation, but i think that informed speculation would tend to support the contention that tv would cannibalise other income. 

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1 hour ago, Clown Job said:

Fucking cringe

I hate the premier league. Zero interest in that level of money in the game. I also detest the boring champions league. I may be in a minority. See that stupid advert for sky that the game is only live once? How patronising. Yes, Sky, it’s LIVE once, and I prefer to be present, not watching on tv. If it’s on tv there’s nothing LIVE about it.

Edited by andrewh
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3 minutes ago, andrewh said:

I hate the premier league. Zero interest in that level of money in the game. I also detest the boring champions league. I may be in a minority. See that stupid advert for sky that the game is only live once? How patronising. Yes, Sky, it’s LIVE once, and I prefer to be present, not watching on tv. If it’s on tv there’s nothing LIVE about it.

What he said

 

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8 minutes ago, coprolite said:

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

Without doing a spreadsheet and a regression, my impression is that Sunday lunch and midweek games are always more poorly attended than the equivalent fixture on Saturday at 3.

I agree that there's speculation, but i think that informed speculation would tend to support the contention that tv would cannibalise other income. 

Which is all fair comments. I suppose then it comes down to whether the hit on other income streams is made up or exceeded by any additional revenue the clubs would make from an increased broadcasting deal.

Maybe I am more naïve to the impact shifted kick off times would have given that in the last couple of years a Saturday 3pm kick off has been a novelty due to our Europe League participation. I also can't remember the last time I was at an away fixture for a Saturday 3pm kick off.

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1 hour ago, kingjoey said:

For those giving Dave Cormack a good kicking on here, can I point out that the piece put out by him is entitled "SPFL Broadcasting Deal : A Perspective". In other words his point of view on it, and not the definitive take. 

Posters are giving Dave a kicking for his PoV. Not  sure what other take there is here.

Anyway. It's not about the 48 games Sky broadcast.  It's about the 180 games they don't yet exercise control over that is the major problem here.

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42 minutes ago, AJF said:

Which is all fair comments. I suppose then it comes down to whether the hit on other income streams is made up or exceeded by any additional revenue the clubs would make from an increased broadcasting deal.

Maybe I am more naïve to the impact shifted kick off times would have given that in the last couple of years a Saturday 3pm kick off has been a novelty due to our Europe League participation. I also can't remember the last time I was at an away fixture for a Saturday 3pm kick off.

I agree it does. I'm not saying i agree with Dave and the SPFL's view on that point, but it is a matter of judgement and they'll bear the cost more than i will for getting it wrong. 

I'd be surprised if Rangers have had double figures away at 3 on Saturday over the last two years

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1 hour ago, coprolite said:

It is an interesting point (to me. Apologies to non nerds for what follows)

I'd be interested to see his workings. This study mentions a positive correlation between attendances and games on TV in the Netherlands.  I can't see that causality was investigated.  But it is at least plausible that increased tv coverage could increase stadium attendances.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7928532/

They do conclude that while factors affecting attendance in Ned can apply internationally, they don't necessarily.

From what i can see of this article there's actual empirical evidence from Scotland that TV coverage negatively affects attendance here. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247739048_Does_Television_Crowd_Out_Spectators_New_Evidence_From_the_Scottish_Premier_League

That's old data which is a minus for comparability but it is direct observation of our society and league. I'd rate that more highly than an international analogy, except i can't actually see it to know what it says. It is at least plausible that Tv coverage will negatively effect attendance in Scotland.

 

That study is twenty years old and is looking at a season when the live SPL games were televised free-to-air into every home with a tv in the country.

It's a completely different thing to ask what impact paywall tv has on attendances in our league. Indeed, it's hard to know for sure either way since so many of the live games we have feature the Old Firm. Chris Robinson made the point at that time that having games against the OF on free-to-air tv on a Sunday afternoon was costing Hearts money. Not rocket science; our most expensive tickets of the season, likely to lose, put that on BBC1 and some folk will stay home.

The question is how that translates to the modern model.

Only example I could be bothered checking in the last minute or so showed that last season Motherwell got a bigger home crowd for their televised Sunday game with Hibs on the opening day than they did for the untelevised repeat of that fixture midweek later in the season. Maybe games at weekends just get bigger crowds regardless?

- Just had one more check, and Dundee also got a bigger crowd for their televised home Sunday game v Hibs last season than for the subsequent midweek repeat. I've just quite easily found plenty of non-televised Dundee home games in the following weeks with significantly lower crowds than the televised game. So, it seems a stretch to say that fans will stay away from paywalled games.

When we were all making fun of Ron Gordon a while back it was established that his pish about opening weekend attracting huge crowds was just that, pish. So maybe the difference is weekend v midweek rather than televised or not. Especially since tv subscriptions are not cheap and fans of most Scottish clubs know their team won't be on that much.

Edited by VincentGuerin
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1 hour ago, VincentGuerin said:

That study is twenty years old and is looking at a season when the live SPL games were televised free-to-air into every home with a tv in the country.

It's a completely different thing to ask what impact paywall tv has on attendances in our league. Indeed, it's hard to know for sure either way since so many of the live games we have feature the Old Firm. Chris Robinson made the point at that time that having games against the OF on free-to-air tv on a Sunday afternoon was costing Hearts money. Not rocket science; our most expensive tickets of the season, likely to lose, put that on BBC1 and some folk will stay home.

The question is how that translates to the modern model.

Only example I could be bothered checking in the last minute or so showed that last season Motherwell got a bigger home crowd for their televised Sunday game with Hibs on the opening day than they did for the untelevised repeat of that fixture midweek later in the season. Maybe games at weekends just get bigger crowds regardless?

- Just had one more check, and Dundee also got a bigger crowd for their televised home Sunday game v Hibs last season than for the subsequent midweek repeat. I've just quite easily found plenty of non-televised Dundee home games in the following weeks with significantly lower crowds than the televised game. So, it seems a stretch to say that fans will stay away from paywalled games.

When we were all making fun of Ron Gordon a while back it was established that his pish about opening weekend attracting huge crowds was just that, pish. So maybe the difference is weekend v midweek rather than televised or not. Especially since tv subscriptions are not cheap and fans of most Scottish clubs know their team won't be on that much.

You wouldn't let it lie would you.  What you've done there is made me do a spreadsheet.  I've used pre-covid seasons and looked at games where Aberdeen had games televised.  Where there was an equivalent fixture that wasn't televised , I've calculated the difference in attendance.

  Over 11 data points there is a clear correlation between televised games- with a mean % reduction of 9.2% There might be other causes for the variation.  But this data is consistent with the hypothesis that televising games reduces attendance. 

season Live game Att day equivalent not on tele att  day TV reduction    
              number %  
1819 Kilmarnock Away 5,270 Sun y 6,531 Sat 1,261 19.3%  
1819 Hibs H 15,629 Fri y 18,631 Sun 3,002 16.1%  
1819 Celtic H 20,027 Wed n     n/a    
1819 Rangers H 18,190 Wed y 19,046 Sun 856 4.5%  
1819 Rangers A 49,667 Sun y 49,711 Wed 44 0.1%  
1819 Celtic H 15,189 Sat n     n/a    
1819 Hearts H 14,371 Fri y 16,451 Sat 2,080 12.6%  
1718 Motherwell A 4,545 Sun y 4,127 Tue -418 -10.1%  
1718 Celtic H 20,528 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Kilmarnock Away 4,198 Sun y 5,067 Sat 869 17.2%  
1718 Rangers A 48,647 Wed y 49,707 Wed 1,060 2.1%  
1718 Rangers H 18,983 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Dundee A 6,541 Fri n     n/a    
1718 Hibs H  14,923 Sat y 17,822 Sat 2,899 16.3%  
1718 Celtic H 17,026 Sun n     n/a    
1718 Hearts H 14,045 Fri y 18,371 Sat 4,326 23.5%  
1718 Rangers H 17,745 Sat n     n/a    
1718 Celtic A 59,048 Sun y 58,975 Sat -73 -0.1%  

 

 

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3 hours ago, coprolite said:

You wouldn't let it lie would you.  What you've done there is made me do a spreadsheet.  I've used pre-covid seasons and looked at games where Aberdeen had games televised.  Where there was an equivalent fixture that wasn't televised , I've calculated the difference in attendance.

  Over 11 data points there is a clear correlation between televised games- with a mean % reduction of 9.2% There might be other causes for the variation.  But this data is consistent with the hypothesis that televising games reduces attendance. 

season Live game Att day equivalent not on tele att  day TV reduction    
              number %  
1819 Kilmarnock Away 5,270 Sun y 6,531 Sat 1,261 19.3%  
1819 Hibs H 15,629 Fri y 18,631 Sun 3,002 16.1%  
1819 Celtic H 20,027 Wed n     n/a    
1819 Rangers H 18,190 Wed y 19,046 Sun 856 4.5%  
1819 Rangers A 49,667 Sun y 49,711 Wed 44 0.1%  
1819 Celtic H 15,189 Sat n     n/a    
1819 Hearts H 14,371 Fri y 16,451 Sat 2,080 12.6%  
1718 Motherwell A 4,545 Sun y 4,127 Tue -418 -10.1%  
1718 Celtic H 20,528 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Kilmarnock Away 4,198 Sun y 5,067 Sat 869 17.2%  
1718 Rangers A 48,647 Wed y 49,707 Wed 1,060 2.1%  
1718 Rangers H 18,983 Wed n     n/a    
1718 Dundee A 6,541 Fri n     n/a    
1718 Hibs H  14,923 Sat y 17,822 Sat 2,899 16.3%  
1718 Celtic H 17,026 Sun n     n/a    
1718 Hearts H 14,045 Fri y 18,371 Sat 4,326 23.5%  
1718 Rangers H 17,745 Sat n     n/a    
1718 Celtic A 59,048 Sun y 58,975 Sat -73 -0.1%  

 

 

Fair play to you. But I don't think that does my query much damage, really.

What I see there is more evidence of weeknight games with lower crowds than weekend games.

Of course there are always going to be other factors. Time of year, form, fixture congestion taking the edge of some attendances, weather etc. And for a game involving a long journey for away fans (Aberdeen at Killie, non-OF Central Belt teams going up to the northern wilderness), televising a game will obviously take numbers off an away support.

And I'm obviously not saying that the broadcast of a game on the tv will have no impact on the crowd.

But I'd disagree that what you've laid out there is conclusive. Hearts at Pittodrie on a Friday night gets a smaller crowd (but still in line with what Aberdeen had been getting in the lead-up to that game) than on a Saturday during the festive season? I mean...

And again, Aberdeen got a normal crowd for their televised game with Hibs (check the fixtures around the televised Hibs one excluding Rangers and the festive Saturday game with Hearts) then a bumper one for the non-televised game as it was the third-last game against a direct competitor chasing second in the league. Indeed, the crowd for their televised game with Hibs was their second-best non-OF gate in a run of eight home games from September to March.

Context, context, context.

Edited by VincentGuerin
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