The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23

[Game of throw-ins]

13 minutes ago, Illgresi said:

Alright Derek min? You should be sunning yersel, not posting on messageboards x

Whoever posts it, it's a simple truth, so easy to verify that every fan should know it.  But most don't seem to, which is why managers are cautious and why fans' forums are full of people claiming that if they were "braver" results would be better and the football would be easier on the eye.

 

[DukDukGoose]

1 hour ago, Game of throw-ins said:

Whoever posts it, it's a simple truth, so easy to verify that every fan should know it.  But most don't seem to, which is why managers are cautious and why fans' forums are full of people claiming that if they were "braver" results would be better and the football would be easier on the eye.

 

There's nothing wrong with expecting a bit more than 'sit tight, direct balls in to the channels' when you dwarf most of the league's resources.

Anyway he's gone. No point if dredging old arguments up again.

[tarapoa]

That XG stat has only 1.8 for the first Ross County game up in Dingwall (3-0 win)

If I recall, we should have been 5-0 up after about 15mins and pretty much pissed all over them for 90 mins. 

Therefore I am now writing XG off as a load of nonsense in a 'yer da' type way.

 

 

[Lebowski]

No, slightly low but hardly insulting. 2.2 or something would be a fair price. 1.2 isn't a terrible opening offer with that in mind.
As it happens I've made the same criticism of Utd over Shankland who are in an identical position and also delusional. He would go for 1.8 or something now. They also thought they could get 4-6.

Dundee Utd were looking for 700k for Shankland in January. Him playing a season in the top league has tanked his value because he's no that good.

[HalfCutNinja]

1 minute ago, Lebowski said:

On 20/05/2021 at 12:04, HalfCutNinja said:

No, slightly low but hardly insulting. 2.2 or something would be a fair price. 1.2 isn't a terrible opening offer with that in mind.
As it happens I've made the same criticism of Utd over Shankland who are in an identical position and also delusional. He would go for 1.8 or something now. They also thought they could get 4-6.

Dundee Utd were looking for 700k for Shankland in January. Him playing a season in the top league has tanked his value because he's no that good.

I've no idea about January, though Covid has deflated the market.

But about 15 months ago I listened to an interview with Mark Ogren on radio and he was asked about Shankland. He was spouting a load of deluded pish about how their business plan had been successful elsewhere and they thought they could improve facilities, have success on the field and turn a profit.

The interviewer was rightly a bit suspicious as to how much acid they'd clearly taken and quizzed him about his most valuable asset Shankland. What did he think he could get for him. 

Ogren waffled on a bit about how they thought they could make a lot of money off him, so the interviewer through out a figure for perspective. Three million?  Ogren smugly replied, no we feel we can realise significantly more than that for him.

That is the level of delusion you're dealing with. He genuinely thought they would get five or six for him. 

I would say 700k is way low and expect them to double that easily, but it will be a fraction of what they were expecting and is a great example of deluded foreign owners coming in having watched the EPL on TV and thinking they operate in the same stratosphere. As is what's going on with Ferguson now.

[Highloon]

Cannot blame Scottish clubs for trying. As has been covered on this thread, they are only trying to upsell their assests, and the EPL and Championship market is barking, so worth the fishing trip. There is always the OF 'derisory' offer to fall back on

[RandomGuy.]

17 minutes ago, tarapoa said:

That XG stat has only 1.8 for the first Ross County game up in Dingwall (3-0 win)

If I recall, we should have been 5-0 up after about 15mins and pretty much pissed all over them for 90 mins. 

Therefore I am now writing XG off as a load of nonsense in a 'yer da' type way.

 

 

WyScout has it at 3.05, tbf.

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, Illgresi said:

@RandomGuy.

I want to be careful, because I know yer bellend will explode, but can you produce stats of McInnes 20/21 vs Glass 21?

XG, XGC (XG conceeded...is that a thing?), maybe even some sexy heat maps?

Glass' lack of games probably doesn't make it a fair comparison yet, but I get it, in terms of league only figures, as...

McInnes 20/21 - xG p90: 1.25 v xGc p90: 1.01

Glass 20/21 - xG p90: 1.54 v xGc p90: 1.3

Or if you prefer a visual attempt to show xG v xGc per game...

[Illgresi]

5 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Glass' lack of games probably doesn't make it a fair comparison yet, but I get it, in terms of league only figures, as...

McInnes 20/21 - xG p90: 1.25 v xGc p90: 1.01

Glass 20/21 - xG p90: 1.54 v xGc p90: 1.3

Or if you prefer a visual attempt to show xG v xGc per game...

So a straight up trade. Makes sense.

[Lebowski]

I've no idea about January, though Covid has deflated the market.
But about 15 months ago I listened to an interview with Mark Ogren on radio and he was asked about Shankland. He was spouting a load of deluded pish about how their business plan had been successful elsewhere and they thought they could improve facilities, have success on the field and turn a profit.
The interviewer was rightly a bit suspicious as to how much acid they'd clearly taken and quizzed him about his most valuable asset Shankland. What did he think he could get for him. 
Ogren waffled on a bit about how they thought they could make a lot of money off him, so the interviewer through out a figure for perspective. Three million?  Ogren smugly replied, no we feel we can realise significantly more than that for him.
That is the level of delusion you're dealing with. He genuinely thought they would get five or six for him. 
I would say 700k is way low and expect them to double that easily, but it will be a fraction of what they were expecting and is a great example of deluded foreign owners coming in having watched the EPL on TV and thinking they operate in the same stratosphere. As is what's going on with Ferguson now.

You misunderstand, Dundee Utd were actively trying to punt him for that in January and got no takers at that price. Why would any club double a price neither they nor anyone else bit on previously?

[HalfCutNinja]

7 minutes ago, Lebowski said:

29 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

I've no idea about January, though Covid has deflated the market.
But about 15 months ago I listened to an interview with Mark Ogren on radio and he was asked about Shankland. He was spouting a load of deluded pish about how their business plan had been successful elsewhere and they thought they could improve facilities, have success on the field and turn a profit.
The interviewer was rightly a bit suspicious as to how much acid they'd clearly taken and quizzed him about his most valuable asset Shankland. What did he think he could get for him. 
Ogren waffled on a bit about how they thought they could make a lot of money off him, so the interviewer through out a figure for perspective. Three million?  Ogren smugly replied, no we feel we can realise significantly more than that for him.
That is the level of delusion you're dealing with. He genuinely thought they would get five or six for him. 
I would say 700k is way low and expect them to double that easily, but it will be a fraction of what they were expecting and is a great example of deluded foreign owners coming in having watched the EPL on TV and thinking they operate in the same stratosphere. As is what's going on with Ferguson now.

You misunderstand, Dundee Utd were actively trying to punt him for that in January and got no takers at that price. Why would any club double a price neither they nor anyone else bit on previously?

Yeah I understood I just doubt that's true. Never heard anything about it at the time. 

[Lebowski]

Yeah I understood I just doubt that's true. Never heard anything about it at the time. 

Why would you have? No one was interested at the price Dundee Utd were looking for. He's a 25 year old striker who wasn't very good in the Premiership. Previous to this season there was a chance he was going to be very good but just hadn't had the opportunity at a higher level. Now he has, and that has fucked his value.

[HalfCutNinja]

1 minute ago, Lebowski said:

19 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

Yeah I understood I just doubt that's true. Never heard anything about it at the time. 

Why would you have? No one was interested at the price Dundee Utd were looking for. He's a 25 year old striker who wasn't very good in the Premiership. Previous to this season there was a chance he was going to be very good but just hadn't had the opportunity at a higher level. Now he has, and that has fucked his value.

I think people overplay that, he got 1 in 4. That's quite decent.  Utd have been fairly pish and quite defensive, its not actually a bad return. 

I just would have expected to have heard about it somewhere, and would be surprised if they were hawking him about halfway through a season anyway, especially at a time when prices were down.

So I doubt the veracity of your information.

[Lebowski]

I think people overplay that, he got 1 in 4. That's quite decent.  Utd have been fairly pish and quite defensive, its not actually a bad return. 
I just would have expected to have heard about it somewhere, and would be surprised if they were hawking him about halfway through a season anyway, especially at a time when prices were down.
So I doubt the veracity of your information.

One in four in Scotland over a 38 game season is 9-10 goals a season. He's 25 so you wouldn't expect huge amounts more development. If Dundee Utd sell him it will be for well under 1m. It's also true what I'm saying regarding trying to punt him fwiw.

[HalfCutNinja]

1 minute ago, Lebowski said:

6 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

I think people overplay that, he got 1 in 4. That's quite decent.  Utd have been fairly pish and quite defensive, its not actually a bad return. 
I just would have expected to have heard about it somewhere, and would be surprised if they were hawking him about halfway through a season anyway, especially at a time when prices were down.
So I doubt the veracity of your information.

One in four in Scotland over a 38 game season is 9-10 goals a season. He's 25 so you wouldn't expect huge amounts more development. If Dundee Utd sell him it will be for well under 1m. It's also true what I'm saying regarding trying to punt him fwiw.

He doesn't need more development, that's one average season when him and his team had just been promoted. He could easily hit 20 next season. Its not a trend after one season.

I'll take your word for it but I seriously doubt it, I don't remember them trying to sell him to anybody, wouldn't expect they'd be doing it halfway through a season and wouldn't believe it would be for that figure either.

[Illgresi]

10 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

He doesn't need more development, that's one average season when him and his team had just been promoted. He could easily hit 20 next season. Its not a trend after one season.

I'll take your word for it but I seriously doubt it, I don't remember them trying to sell him to anybody, wouldn't expect they'd be doing it halfway through a season and wouldn't believe it would be for that figure either.

[Game of throw-ins]

2 hours ago, Merkland Red said:

There's nothing wrong with expecting a bit more than 'sit tight, direct balls in to the channels' when you dwarf most of the league's resources.

Anyway he's gone. No point if dredging old arguments up again.

I wasn't the one who brought McInnes into it.  My point is that you can't judge a manager by a change in expected (or actual) goals scored unless you also take into account expected or actual goals conceded.  That's the criteria that will need to be applied to Glass.

[d31]

Shankland is an interesting topic.

Will he move this summer and what's the asking price? Seems like it's not his time right now and suddenly he is running his contract down 

[TommyDickFingers]

11 minutes ago, d31 said:

Shankland is an interesting topic.

Will he move this summer and what's the asking price? Seems like it's not his time right now and suddenly he is running his contract down 

1.8 million I think was mentioned earlier by the guy who was telling everyone they were deluded.

I don't think he's a million miles away tbf.

Spoiler

 

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, Game of throw-ins said:

I wasn't the one who brought McInnes into it.  My point is that you can't judge a manager by a change in expected (or actual) goals scored unless you also take into account expected or actual goals conceded.  That's the criteria that will need to be applied to Glass.

I agree with you about the big picture but we should be able to tell if we've been more more attacking from the number of chances (or a nice heatmap). Being more attacking isn't the same as being more successful with it.