The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23

[DukDukGoose]

Just now, G51 said:

Yeah, I think there's truth in both narratives - Aberdeen clearly aren't creating enough, but they're also not finishing the chances they do make either.

Two games stand out as being particularly awful in that run - the 2-0 loss to Livi and the 0-0 with St Mirren. Combined 0.68xG, 14 shots, 5 on target, with the only half-chance created during the 180 minutes being Ferguson's shot which came crashing off the crossbar and bounced off the line.

McInnes has definitely been a little unlucky, but not unlucky enough that a normal scoring rate would have given Aberdeen good results.

His time was done but the St Mirren game is a harsh one to judge him on. The conditions were almost unplayable.

[kingjoey]

13 minutes ago, G51 said:

This is an area where xG is a genuinely useful tool.

Since the 2-0 win against Motherwell up until the Celtic game at the end of February, Aberdeen had a cumulative xG of 6.74. So for those matches, Aberdeen should have scored somewhere between 6 and 7 goals but only scored one.

This is very likely to correct itself in the short term as luck evens out, so Aberdeen fans should probably expect to see more goals soon which will be put down to the "new manager bounce".

Having said that though, an average xG per match of 0.84 is really poor, so while Aberdeen should have scored more they still weren't creating at the level they had previously in the season.

There’s no question that we haven’t been creating as many chances as earlier in the season, but we have still been creating enough clear cut chances to win the majority of matches recently where we haven’t scored a single goal. You will get fans saying that the players on the pitch are trained and coached by the manager and he has to take the blame for the lack of goals, but to take one game as an example, four open goals were missed at Livingston, really and honestly not the fault of the manager no matter how you try to spin it.

[AFCDannyFTH]

11 minutes ago, HalfCutNinja said:

You mean he did absolutely outstanding, performing above all expectations, and bringing a level of success not seen for decades. 

Only in the mind of an Aberdeen fan does this represent 'doing well enough'.

Since then he's lost McKenna, Cosgrove, Shinnie, Jack and McLean.

Alex Ferguson said the hardest thing to do in management is maintain a level of success whilst rebuilding a team. And McInnes has managed that, but its not good enough for a deluded support.

Taking a risk for what gain? What do you hope to attain by taking this risk? As improvement isn't possible, so its not a calculated risk, its a stupid and unnecessary risk for zero gain.

He probably wouldn't mind being away from the most entitled support in the country who don't even recognise success when he delivers it, I would imagine that is a relief.

McInnes was on £17k/wk. If you think our performances over the last three seasons justify that, you're the one who is deluded. 

Things have become increasingly stale and it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that change was required. 

[G51]

2 minutes ago, Merkland Red said:

His time was done but the St Mirren game is a harsh one to judge him on. The conditions were almost unplayable.

Fair - when I strip that out, the average for the barren run goes up to 0.91xG per match. Aberdeen averaged 1.28xG for the season, so it's still a noticeable drop but not as bad.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 minutes ago, Leith Green said:

You mean in 3rd spot?

I'll set them up with a wee chip to the back post, you nod them in from a suspiciously offside position. 

You know of course what I mean. A club that sacks their manager year after year and slips further and further down the greasy pole until they're humiliated by relegation. 

Could be Hibs, could be Hearts, could be the Arabs. There's nothing written in stone that protects Aberdeen from the same fate. 

[kingjoey]

39 minutes ago, Rodhull said:

I was too young for the Fergie era. Alex Smith is probably the only contender besides Mcinnes for the best manager we’ve had in the time I’ve supported the club.  I don’t even expect the next manager to necessarily do as well as Mcinnes but the day you think the way things have been going is acceptable is the day the club has pretty much given up.

So if I read you correctly, you’re saying that you would be happier to be outwith the top four, have fewer trips to Hampden for semi-finals/Finals and less European qualifications, just to see a new manager at Pittodrie? 

[HalfCutNinja]

6 minutes ago, AFCDannyFTH said:

McInnes was on £17k/wk. If you think our performances over the last three seasons justify that, you're the one who is deluded. 

Things have become increasingly stale and it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that change was required. 

'Stale' doesn't mean anything in this context. Football is about results, a manager's job is to get them. McInnes has been doing that. Any 'staleness' reaaly just comes from entitled fans.

[BucksburnDandy]

There’s no question that we haven’t been creating as many chances as earlier in the season, but we have still been creating enough clear cut chances to win the majority of matches recently where we haven’t scored a single goal. You will get fans saying that the players on the pitch are trained and coached by the manager and he has to take the blame for the lack of goals, but to take one game as an example, four open goals were missed at Livingston, really and honestly not the fault of the manager no matter how you try to spin it.

The players have to take a large part of the blame for sure.

What are your thoughts overall Joey? You've been one of DMs bigger fans recently while others have been calling for his removal. Were you still behind him or was it time to go?

[G51]

7 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

There’s no question that we haven’t been creating as many chances as earlier in the season, but we have still been creating enough clear cut chances to win the majority of matches recently where we haven’t scored a single goal. You will get fans saying that the players on the pitch are trained and coached by the manager and he has to take the blame for the lack of goals, but to take one game as an example, four open goals were missed at Livingston, really and honestly not the fault of the manager no matter how you try to spin it.

Yeah like I said, I see truth in both narratives, but I'm not sure with an average rate of finishing it would have made *that* much of a difference.

It's clearly unlucky for McInnes in that the dry spell is probably the reason he's been sacked, but the underlying trends are clear. He can rightly point to losing Hedges and Wright as being major contributory factors to the dropoff in chance creation though, so who knows? Maybe if Hedges is fit, McInnes is able to limp on until the end of the season and sorts it in the transfer window.

[DrewDon]

Neat summation, this. 

 

[lubo_blaha]

Big rebuilding job in the summer. From what I can see we have one first team defender contracted and no strikers.

5(!) CMs, 4 wide players and a keeper signed up for 2022 onwards.

[kingjoey]

I’d like to thank Derek McInnes and Tony Docherty for giving me seven /eight years of pretty consistent results to help to justify forcing my two sons to support Aberdeen from birth. They are now 32 and 30 and up until the arrival of McInnes and Docherty had really spent a pretty miserable existence as season tickets holders from around 1997. We have been able to go along to Pittodrie expecting rather than hoping to win, we have enjoyed great European nights both at Pittodrie and in front of the TV, we celebrated madly together at Celtic Park when Adam Rooney’s penalty hit the back of the net, and have generally enjoyed watching Aberdeen since they took over. Thanks for the memories Derek and Tony. Let’s hope the next manager can emulate these past seasons.

[tarapoa]

I will stand by my previous assertion.................and I'm looking at the big picture of the last 8 years, not just a couple of months when things have been admittedly dire.

20% chance this improves things.

30% chance they stay roughly the same.

50% chance we dip and all the European qualifications and appearances in semis/finals become a lot less frequent.

Over to you Mr Cormack..........

[alta-pete]

3 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

I’d like to thank Derek McInnes and Tony Docherty for giving me seven /eight years of pretty consistent results to help to justify forcing my two sons to support Aberdeen from birth. They are now 32 and 30 and up until the arrival of McInnes and Docherty had really spent a pretty miserable existence as season tickets holders from around 1997. We have been able to go along to Pittodrie expecting rather than hoping to win, we have enjoyed great European nights both at Pittodrie and in front of the TV, we celebrated madly together at Celtic Park when Adam Rooney’s penalty hit the back of the net, and have generally enjoyed watching Aberdeen since they took over. Thanks for the memories Derek and Tony. Let’s hope the next manager can emulate these past seasons.

 

[kingjoey]

9 minutes ago, BucksburnDandy said:

The players have to take a large part of the blame for sure.

What are your thoughts overall Joey? You've been one of DMs bigger fans recently while others have been calling for his removal. Were you still behind him or was it time to go?

I was still behind him, but deep down I can see why Cormack felt the decision had to be made. However, if it really is the intention for Paul Sheerin, Barry Robson and Simmie to see out the season, I really don’t get that. The Scottish Cup is there to be played for and to let a stand-in management team go after that, and the admittedly long odds chance of third still a possibility, makes no sense to me. Cormack may be concerned about season ticket sales, but there will be no difference in these figures by keeping Derek McInnes on until May 22nd or having a management team that definitely won’t be there next season, until  around the same date. The timing only makes sense if the new manager is in place before the start of the Scottish Cup for us in April.

[Ric]

4 hours ago, Ludo*1 said:

Give me a shout lads as to when I should get the next manager thread up. @Ric has been good at keeping me updated for Premiership outgoings.

I've dropped the ball there, @Ludo*1 .. normally I like to sound the horn when your services are required...

[kingjoey]

10 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

 

Pretty certain you won’t be posting anything similar when Gerrard makes the move down South in the summer, or before.

[Ric]

2 hours ago, Frank Grimes said:

A source close to the club has hinted to me that you may have chosen the wrong Saint related team manager. Apparently Cormack has been impressed by the happenings in Perth.

[alta-pete]

4 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

Pretty certain you won’t be posting anything similar when Gerrard makes the move down South in the summer, or before.

It’s inevitable at some point, agreed. Doesn’t stop a wee bit banter in the middle until it’s my/our turn to be on the receiving end.  But comparing Gerrard to McInnes in the same sentence? I’m not so sure. Maybe just lighten up? 

[HibsFan]

41 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I'll set them up with a wee chip to the back post, you nod them in from a suspiciously offside position. 

You know of course what I mean. A club that sacks their manager year after year and slips further and further down the greasy pole until they're humiliated by relegation. 

Could be Hibs, could be Hearts, could be the Arabs. There's nothing written in stone that protects Aberdeen from the same fate. 

Oh how I wish that was true, but Aberdeen have finished in the relegation zone twice in their history and yet somehow have not suffered either deserved relegation.

So if there are any positional problems in the league for the Dons next season, the powers that be will simply bring the measuring tape out and starting sizing up Stranraer's floodlights, just in case another excuse is needed.

Edited March 8, 2021 by HibsFan