SPFL 16-16-10

[RabidAl]

A wee sketch to show how the size of the top tier may affect the potential of there being non-Old Firm Scottish Champions...

# of # of % of % of Difference Total Extra

Teams Games Points Points in % of Pts Points Points

In Lge Per Team Available Available Available Available Avail.

(to non-OF)* (to OF)** (to OF)

10 18 14/18 17/18 16.67% 18x3 9.00

= 77.78% = 94.44% = 54

10 36 28/36 34/36 16.67% 36x3 18.04

= 77.78% = 94.44% = 108

12 38 30/38 36/38 15.79% 38x3 18.00

= 78.95% = 94.74% = 114

12 38 34/38 38/38 10.53% 38x3 12.00

= 89.47% = 100% = 114

14 26 22/26 25/26 11.53% 26x3 8.99

= 84.62 = 96.15 = 78

16 30 26/30 29/30 10.00% 30x3 9.00

= 86.67% = 96.67% = 90

18 34 30/34 33/34 8.82% 34x3 8.36

= 88.24% = 97.06% = 102

20 38 34/38 37/38 7.9% 38x3 9.01

= 89.47% = 97.37% = 114

Those individual games that a team has a reasonable expectation of winning:

*Best of the Rest – each individual non-Old Firm match

(in the 10 team, 18 game example: 14 out of 18);

** Old Firm – each individual match, other than away to other Old Firm team

(in the 10 team, 18 game example: 17 out of 18).

[lionel hutz]

My View has always been for either a 12 or a 16 team top flight. Lets keep the status quo right now.

1) Premiership- 12 teams (38 games) would be the status quo but with the addition of split gates. £18 a ticket is a more reasonable price.

2) Championship - 12 teams(44 games) would be a good idea as in England the Championship plays 46 games, this also means two more clubs will be a full time. Also a permanent TV Deal should be made as quite a lot of people would like to see maybe 20-30 Championship games a season especially if it is a big game like Hibs vs Hearts, Dundee vs Hearts, or Partick vs St Mirren. Two teams Automatically go down and one more in a play-off. £15 a ticket.

3) National League - 18 teams (34 games) - Two Go up and three play-off places, and two go down with two play-off places. £12 a ticket.

4) a)Highland League - 18 Teams (34 games) - One Automatically goes up and three teams play in a play-off for the second spot. Two down.

b) Lowland League - 16 Teams (30 or 37 games) -One Automatically goes up and three teams play in a play-off for the second spot. Two down.

5) a)Caledonian Championship (North) -16 Teams (30 games) - Made up of Junior Clubs from North and East Regions. One Up Auto, 2nd-5th in play-off.
b)Lowland Championship - 18 Teams (34 games) - Made up from East and West Region clubs. One up Auto, 2nd-5th in play-off.

6)Caledonian Conference (North) -16 Teams (30 games) - Made up of Junior Clubs from North and East Regions. One Up Auto, 2nd-5th in play-off.
Lowland Conference - 18 Teams (34 games) - Made up from East and West Region clubs. One up Auto, 2nd-5th in play-off.

7) Regional Level- Highland and Islands, Lanarkshire + Central, Tayside (inc NE Fife), Forth, Ayrshire + South and Grampian

Another Aim would be for more Sunday Night TV Games, around 6.30pm on a Sunday to ensure higher attendances.

If it was created for 2013/14 it would look like this

1)Premiership: Aberdeen, Celtic, Dundee Utd, Hearts, Hibs, Inverness, Kilmarnock, Motherwell, Partick, Ross County, St Johnstone, St Mirren

2) Championship: Alloa Athletic, Cowdenbeath, Dumbarton, Dundee, Dunfermline, Falkirk, Morton, Hamilton, Livingston, Queen of the South, Raith and The Rangers (based on current leagues tables)

3) National League: Airdrieonians, Arbroath, Ayr, Brechin, East Fife, Forfar, Stenhousemuir, Stranraer, Albion, Annan, Berwick, Clyde, East Stirlingshire, Elgin, Montrose, Peterhead, Queen's Park, Stirling Albion

4a) Highland League: Brora, Buckie, Clachnacuddin, Cove, Deveronvale, Formartine, Forres, Fort William, Fraserburgh, Huntly, Inverurie Loco Works, Keith, Lossiemouth, Nairn, Rothes, Strathspey, Turriff, Wick

4b) Lowland League: Dalbeattie Star, East Kilbride, Edinburgh City, Gala, The Gretna, Preston Ath, Selkirk, Spartans, Stirling Uni, Threave, Vale of Leithen, Whitehall Welfare, Duns, Coldstream, Wigtown and Bladnoch and Civil Service Strolliers.

5a) Caledonian Championship: Culter, Dyce, Hermes, Banks O' Dee, Deveronside, Stoneywood, Stonehaven, Maud, Ellon Utd, Banchory St. Ternan, Longside (all from North Juniors)
Lochee Utd, Carnoustie, Tayport, St Andrews Utd, Ballingry (All from East Juniors)

5b) Lowland Championship:
Craigroyston, Lothian Thistle, Tynecastle (All from East of Scotland League)
Newton Stewart, St Cuthbert, Nithsdale, Heston, Crichton, Lochar (All from South of Scotland League)

Bo'ness Utd, Newtongrange, Bonnyrigg Rose, Linlithgow Rose, (All from East Juniors)
Auchinleck Talbot, Irvine Meadow, Clydebank, Kilbirnie, Petershill, (All from West)

6a) Caledonian Conference: North Region and (Tayside & NE Fife) East Region Junior Clubs

6b) Lowland Conference:
Leith, Easthouse, Kelso, Ormiston, Burntisland, Peebles, Eyemouth and HRA (all from East of Scotland League)
Mid Annandale, Abbey Vale, Fleet Star, Creetown (South of Scotland League)
Hill of Beath, Saucie, (East Juniors)
Rob Roy, Hulford, Cumnock, Arthulie (West Juniors)

[EdTheDuck]

My View has always been for either a 12 or a 16 team top flight. Lets keep the status quo right now.

1)Premiership- 12 teams (38 games) would be the status quo but with the addition of split gates for a larger chance of a rival to Celtic

See the bolded bit? Game over, man, game over...

[lionel hutz]

So it's an 11-1 vote

[JockysJetpack]

I think it's alright the size it's at just now to be honest, there are so many boring games in the EPL and we've got enough equivalents already think to the bottom 6 last season. And to a certain degree this season's top 6 outwith Aberdeen and Motherwell. Would anyone really go see a 10th placed Ross County vs 11th placed Killie match? Crowds would plummet IMO.

I used to be well for a bigger league but I think we should stick with what we have now for a bit and see where we are in 5-10 years before we start trying to change everything up all over again.

[RabidAl]

The previous sketch used an extreme example of a perfect season for the Old Firm together and a ‘best of the rest’ to highlight that the current league size precludes a challenge to the Old Firm.

Attached to the original post is a comparative analysis of 12 and 16 team top tiers.

I’ve used data from the final league tables for the 12 years that the SPL had 12 teams (and included both of the Old Firm), so that any variations are systemic – i.e. due to the change in league structure.

The results are summarised below:

SPL 16 Team SPL 16 Team

Win Rate Win Rate Average Average

(%) (%) (Points) (Points)

1st 76.5 80.4 92.6 76.6

2nd 68.0 71.8 83.0 69.0

3rd 47.6 55.3 63.5 57.1

4th 41.7 49.4 56.4 51.5

5th 36.4 44.1 51.2 47.3

6th 33.1 40.8 48.0 44.8

Using an average league table of the SPL (2000-2012), the gap between the best Old Firm team and the best of the rest is 29.1 points.

If the SPL trend continues, this gap reduces to 19.5 points for a 16-team top tier.

The gap between the second Old Firm team and the best challenger also reduces, from 19.5 points in the SPL to 11.9 points in a 16-team Premiership.

Increasing the size of the top tier to 16 teams also increases the proportion of wins for the main challengers to the Old Firm – for example, from 47.6% to 55.3% for the best of the rest – and at a faster rate than for the Old Firm.

So, using average SPL form, the best non-Old Firm teams win a larger proportion of their games and provide a closer challenge at the top in a 16-team Premiership.

One view is that a higher proportion of wins and a closer challenge for the league generate more revenues for top non-Old Firm clubs, enabling them to put progressively more quality on the park in successive seasons.

Because the higher win rates for the best non-Old Firm teams are structural (i.e. due to the increased size of the league) the gap to the Old Firm should close year-on-year – if winning teams translate to more revenue that is.

Fairer financial distribution (see attachment to original post) would catalyse this effect; it is part of a feedback loop of revenues-success that the Old Firm maximised in the SPL era – in terms of both revenues and points, they can make no further progress.

As promised, how a 16-team top tier could dovetail with the rest…..

(national leagues: by current average attendance)

Premiership Championship League One

1 Celtic CL 1 Ayr United PR 1 Forfar Athletic PR

2 Rangers EL 2 Queen of the South PR 2 Dumbarton PR

3 Hearts EL 3 Raith Rovers __ __ PO 3 Stranraer

4 Aberdeen __ ?EL 4 Greenock Morton 4 Alloa Athletic

5 Hibernian 5 Hamilton Academical 5 Stenhousemuir

6 Dundee United 6 East Fife 6 Cowdenbeath

7 Partick Thistle 7 Airdrie United 7 Stirling Albion

8 Motherwell 8 Livingston___________ 8 Elgin City __ __ _

9 Dundee 9 Arbroath RL 9 Peterhead PO

10 St. Mirren 10 Brechin RL 10 Clyde RL

11 Kilmarnock

12 Ross County (Full-time feeder league) (Part-time feeder lge)

13 St. Johnstone_ __

14 Inverness PO Premiership/Championship Play-Off

15 Falkirk RL Inverness v Raith Rovers (neutral venue)

16 Dunfermline RL

Regional/National Play-Off Group*

(Full-time top tier) Saturday (home/away) Wednesday (home/away)

Peterhead v Queen’s Park Queen’s Park v Montrose

Montrose v Berwick Berwick v Peterhead

Saturday (neutral venues) *Top 2 are promoted.

Peterhead v Montrose

Queen’s Park v Berwick

West Premier North Premier East Premier

1 Queen’s Park __ __ PO 1 Montrose __ __ PO 1 Berwick Rangers_ __ PO

2 Albion Rovers 2 Brora 2 East Stirlingshire

3 Annan Athletic 3 Inverurie 3 Spartans

4 Dalbeattie 4 Nairn 4 Stirling University

5 East Kilbride 5 Formartine 5 Vale of Leithen

6 Gretna 6 Fraserburgh 6 Whitehill Welfare

7 Threave 7 Deveronvale 7 Edinburgh City

8 Wigtown & Bladnoch___ 8 Forres Mechanics____ 8 Preston Athletic________

9 Newton Stewart RL 9 Buckie Thistle RL 9 Gala Fairydean Rovers RL

10 St. Cuthbert Wds RL 10 Wick Academy RL 10 Selkirk RL

League Cup

If clubs need to have additional guaranteed home games:

Round 1: (12) Premiership, (10) Championship, (10) League One (32 teams; 16 progress).

Round 2: (4) Premiership (Scots in Europe); (16) from Round 1 (20 teams; 8 progress).

4 groups of 5 teams, playing each-other once;

2 home games, 2 away games; top 2 progress;

Fixtures begin Sat-Wed and end Wed-Sat with

A mid-week date in between.

Quarters, Semis and Final as normal.

Rab

[Eder]

30 games a season doesn't give clubs enough revenue. Money would be lost everywhere - less games for a start, smaller away supports from the four promoted teams.

However we do need to get rid of the 12 team split arrangement.

For me the best league was the Top Ten but I can understand why it's not popular with teams at the bottom.

[HibeeJibee]

I don't think the split is too bad. You have to balance up the negatives - sometimes you don't get an exact balance of games overall and v each opponent, and you get final 5 fixtures at 2-6 weeks notice... with the positives - adds meaning the to mid-table, and numerous 6-pointers in the run-in.

[ShawfieldAggro]

Its really not FOR anything though. I hardly can see full houses for a winner-take-6th place encounter, but then i always did think the split was mishandled atrociously. The clubs for too long had their own say....its not the SPL, their own baby, any more. A return to the 44 game season would be no bad thing imo. Extra revenue and completely the same for everyone. As for giving meaning to mid-table, well.in a 12 club league how much excitement do you want.....3rd down to 6th into Europa League Belgian style playoffs.....second bottom like so into First Division playoffs.......sounds better to me than the fallacy of a team in 8th place finishing with more points than the team in 5th....

[HibeeJibee]

There have been bigger crowds for top 6 deciders, e.g. I recall Falkirk v Aberdeen some years back. It does generate meaning in the mid-table. You can't fit a 44-game season in nowadays given the UEFA and FIFA dates, and having a EL playoff is complicated by our tradition of a season-ending Cup Final.

[ShawfieldAggro]

Perhaps there was a push on ticket sales by the club(s) for such a game because it would be their last 'competitive' match. I'll take your word for it, but i hardly imagine the worldly difference between 6th and 7th otherwise generating a great deal of interest....canny picture grown men hugging young players in celebration or greetin' into their scarves about losing it. Fair enough on the dates front, but realistically how many Scottish clubs lose how many plsyers to internationals that requires a two week break??? Id suggest using up the midweek prior to the int'l weekend to play additional fixtures between clubs who have no more than two players selected. We also don't utilise Bank Holidays, or indeed pleasant spring Monday nights for the remainder, particularly feasible now there are regular Friday matches.

[HibeeJibee]

Although not many Premiership players are called-up for Scotland now there are usually lots of Under 21s and a good smattering of foreign internationals.

Finishing 6th or 7th can mean a lot competitively, bigger games post-split but most obviously also the chance for Europe if it's still quite close.

You just couldn't accomodate a 44-game season. I doubt the clubs would want 6 extra games anyway, more money yes but also more squad strain.

[ShawfieldAggro]

Surely thats where 'bringing the boys in' comes in......i hear enough of that statement to make me want to gouge out my eyes, but development is also supposedly an enticement of the other formats suggested.

[weeto]

Surely having a top division with 18 or 20 teams would make games more appealing for fans and would prevent teams like Hearts, Hibs, Killie and the likes having to worry about relegation.

I'd be inclined to think that smaller Premiership teams would get a big attendence boost too. I think just putting a Premiership label on a game like Falkirk vs Raith would boost attendences.

Don't get me wrong though, the league would need to be careful that they weren't just glueing the Championship to the bottom of the Premiership.

There needs to be more incentive to have better facilities, better players and more fans coming in to the grounds. I'd like to see a speculative TV deal which would put the games on one network but invest money into the game up here with the idea of producing a better product. The old Englsh First Dvision wasn't so fantastic when Sky threw money as it became the Premier League. At first, the standard of play wasn't worth the money but it picked up as a result of getting the cash. Even the small clubs that got there on a fluke promotion run gain riches for even a single season in the big time and get parachute payments on top of that.

When you look up here, even when the Old Firm were both flying, the TV money was ridiculous and the clubs totally relied on Europe, ticket sales and merchandise. TV money from domestic football is terrible here.

The smaller Premiership clubs whine about not getting enough but even when both the Old Firm were in the league (as the SPL at that time) they were getting very little out of the various deals themselves. Old Firm clubs have fielded players at times that earned more per week than their entire opposition team.

The truth is that the Old Firm are the only clubs that draw TV money and other commercial deals but the likes of Aberdeen, Dundee United, Hearts, Hibs and the other upper middle level clubs in stature are falling behind because they aren't getting enough to make a consistant challenge.

The biggest teams don't get enough to sign superstars and take on Europe at the highest level, the upper middle teams don't make enough to challenge to get into the Champions League or win the Premiership, the lower middle teams are trying desperately to avoid getting sucked into the relegation situation and trying to compete with the upper middle sides and the lowest sides are desperately avoided going down and losing what little money and opportunity there is.

Nearly every highest tier league in Europe have had a much wider gap at the top end developing because of the huge exposure and income for the regular European competitors and clubs that can make a lot from international merchandise sales. Those that rely on their native fanbase and don't make money on a wider scale find it very difficult to keep up.

Most countries have a maximum of five 'brand' clubs and here in Scotland, it's two and one of those is down in the doldrums at the moment.

The 'nearly' clubs have to fight hard or spend big to be able to get into the elite club now and it is a worry how teams at the upper middle levels across Europe will cope if an exodus to European leagues ever happens.

Salary caps almost certainly wouldn't work in football as rebel leagues would pop up and take players that didn't 'play ball' with FIFA.

As far as the Scottish game is concerned it is difficult to feed two giants and keep 40 other mouths fed with only a couple of pots of gruel that are available. If you deprive the big two of sufficient income, our European status erodes further and the value of the two big brands of the game fade further, if you give the Old Firm virtually everything, it causes the others to become a joke and leads to even more one sided matches.

The game needs to come up with more schemes to raise funding in Scotland and I think reducing the ticket prices at a lot of games would be a good idea and even giving away tickets to fill up grounds would be a good thing.

Imagine if say, 2000 school kids got free admitance to several games in a season at a club. That could grow a fanbase, encourage them to buy merchandise and get involved in the fanbase of the club. I'd encourage the clubs in League 1 and 2 (if the current format was retained) to drop their ticket prices to something like £5 for League 2 and £8 for League 1.

Ticket prices in Germany and Italy are generally much cheaper than over here in the UK. They get very good crowds at many games and Germany's lower leagues have strong attendence figures.

Clubs should be trying to get councils and local companies involved in investing in facilities and community owned stadiums and training facilities. Clubs should have more links with youth football programmes too. I don't see why many part time footballers couldn't be coaching schoolboy players during the week. If the clubs were to do something like that, the local councils could fund the training sessions and they'd be paying the players to participate.

Local schools would produce better players as a result and they'd go on to the clubs which would bring in money to the local communities.

[EdTheDuck]

Surely having a top division with 18 or 20 teams would make games more appealing for fans and would prevent teams like Hearts, Hibs, Killie and the likes having to worry about......

....Local schools would produce better players as a result and they'd go on to the clubs which would bring in money to the local communities.

This is a wind up, right?

[HibeeJibee]

There was some chap in the Scotsman letter pages at the weekend calling for a move to structure of 20-22 and abolish the League Cup. Country is full of fruitcakes. This season has been a perfect advert for small divisions with 1-up-1-down and playoffs, loads of meanginful football and good crowds.

[EdTheDuck]

There was some chap in the Scotsman letter pages at the weekend calling for a move to structure of 20-22 and abolish the League Cup. Country is full of fruitcakes. This season has been a perfect advert for small divisions with 1-up-1-down and playoffs, loads of meanginful football and good crowds.

The timing of this particular post is perfect as young Mr. Lennon was on telly last night calling for "a level [financial] playing field" in Europe in light of the Man Citeh FFP situation. It was one of the few occasions for which the phrase ‘you couldn’t make it up’ genuinely applies.

Apart from the errors in judgement re bigger leagues in Scotland, the arrogance that suggests Hearts, Hibs, Aberdeen, United's ambitions begin and end with "being safe" in the top division is staggering; mediocrity is precisely what is restricting them, enforcing that mediocrity would reduce them even further.

The old English First Division wasn't so fantastic before Sky arrived with their money, apparently, but somehow contrived to win the European Cup 7 times in 8 years prior to their ban? The whole subtext is that money for money sake is what is important.

[craigkillie]

Surely thats where 'bringing the boys in' comes in......i hear enough of that statement to make me want to gouge out my eyes, but development is also supposedly an enticement of the other formats suggested.

I can only assume you've been stuck in a nuclear bunker for the last two or three years. The "boys" have already been brought in and most Premiership clubs are packed full of them.

[weeto]

The English First Division wasn't so fantastic when the English were out of Europe and just after and there were issues such as the Taylor report forcing stadium modernisation (and huge expenditure on stadiums rather than players for many clubs), plus there were hooliganism issues on top of that.

It was the Premier League money that brought English football kicking and screaming into the modern era.

English clubs were successful in Europe before the ban but the game was behind the times there and the crumbling stadiums and hooliganism would have created more Hillsboroughs and Heysels.

It was only on the field that the English clubs were doing well but financially and in terms of media deals, they were behind the times.

The stadium modernisations helped kill the worst of the hooligan element and also created an atmosphere hostile to that element of the support too as the camera packed all seater stadiums made catching culprits very easy,

Premier League football also gave the finance to sign international stars and build a much bigger following internationally. You can get merchadise of major English teams in any country in the world, that wouldn't have been the case in the First Division days.

[ShawfieldAggro]

Bollocks. The three-foreigner rule prevented most clubs stockpiling the top foreign players of todays game, but there were plenty around pre Premiership. It also took the English clubs less than two years to win a trophy (Man Utd CwC) after the ban, it could be argued that the Italian dominance of the early Champions League (finalists in each of the first sx years) was their peak, and subsequent lack of one country running things (England 2005-2012, only one year no finalist excepted) that perhaps the Sky money is basically smoke being blown up peoples arse, as an indication football has 'never been so good', as we're often told.

I'm well aware teams have been 'reduced' to fielding the kids (for longer than 3 years too), but my suggestion was it would encourage this further, not as some wonderful new idea i'd stumbled upon. But every time a club has a crap season, or even every time Scotland get pumped, the mass reaction is always 'just play the boys', it could be argued theres never been a better time to be a young footballer, why not encourage this development further??? England are panicking like f**k that beyond Wilshere, Llallana Shaw Sturridge and Walker, they have no young players. The reason they don't have more is because the ones they bring through their academies are far too mollycoddled. Fling them in, no holds barred, and develop the men as well as the footballer. More games would help achieve this.