Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[ScotiaNostra]

whats been the overall trend over the last 2 years with polls, ignoring any short term spikes or dips?

Edited February 14, 2023 by ScotiaNostra

[Suspect Device]

22 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

whats been the overall trend over the last 2 years with polls, ignoring any short term spikes or dips?

The overall trend is that there's no overall trend. The polls seem to be flatlining. You'd think with the constant shitshow they'd move consistently one way or the other. It's possible that we've just reached an impasse and no-one is going to change their entrenched views from either side.

So no independence in my lifetime unfortunately. Luckily, my daughter will be able to vote in 3 years time. just in time for Scottish parliamentary election.

[renton]

36 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

whats been the overall trend over the last 2 years with polls, ignoring any short term spikes or dips?

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/01/wings-watch-campbell-yet-again-trots.html?m=1

Yearly average based on the wiki list of all polls on the subject, plus the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey.

[ScotiaNostra]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

The overall trend is that there's no overall trend. The polls seem to be flatlining. You'd think with the constant shitshow they'd move consistently one way or the other. It's possible that we've just reached an impasse and no-one is going to change their entrenched views from either side.

So no independence in my lifetime unfortunately. Luckily, my daughter will be able to vote in 3 years time. just in time for Scottish parliamentary election.

I would have thought that

[vikingTON]

3 hours ago, renton said:

Who would be your preferred replacement? Genuine question - the likely runners and riders would be Forbes, Robertson, Yousaf or Brown? Gilruth maybe?

I've genuinely no real preference (and also wouldn't have a say in the decision as I'm not a party member). But Sturgeon has clearly missed her best opportunity to bow out round about the time of Covid winding down and the exit choices only get more grisly from here. 

A reset of the SG, with the opportunity to clear house and also to think twice about some of the dafter policies (such as the looming recycling deposit scheme binfire) has much to recommend it. 

[sophia]

8 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

More the 2 months of onslaught from the unionist media abetted by the opportunists in the Tory and Labour Paries.  SLab in particular are a fucking disgrace - trying to have it both ways on gender reform.

I'd personally like the SNP to be less defensive about the whole issue and expose some of the downright lies that these b*****ds are getting away with unchallenged - especially the stuff around rape and the personalised venom directed at Sturgeon. Genuinely fed up of hearing/reading any pish about Sturgeon's Bill.

I agree with you and it's easy to see right through the strategy of the onslaught directed at the competency of the Scottish Government and Nicola in particular. Repeat it enough and the bizarre narrative becomes accepted, you only need to read the post above this one to bear witness to that being the case.

I'm not sure about Nicola's strategy. Is it based upon hoping that the majority of the hard to get at few percent of voters become exasperated with the negativity and say enough?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

8 hours ago, virginton said:

Perhaps if the personalised venom is getting too much, then she can do everyone a favour and follow her big mate Jacinda Ahern out of the door.

Taking her dodgy, catastrophically bald husband with her. 

I assume that is aimed at me.

Of course it's been personalised - it isn't her bill.

Despite how the media portray this, the bill was passed by every single Lib Dem MSP, 3 Tories, and 91% of Labour MSPs.

This isn't Sturgeon's bill - it's the Scottish Parliament's bill.

It's why I wasn't particularly happy regards the intervention on Isla Bryson - they really should have let the SPS make an independent decision.  By intervening as they did they just gave ammo to the opposition, especially those using the trans rapists attack - they've effectively undermined the bill by making the link.

As for Murrell going - you'll have no disagreement from me there - he is a political liability.

Edited February 14, 2023 by DeeTillEhDeh

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I assume that is aimed at me.

Of course it's been personalised - it isn't her bill.

Despite how the media portray this, the bill was passed by every single Lib Dem MSP, 3 Tories, and 91% of Labour MSPs.

This isn't Sturgeon's bill - it's the Scottish Parliament's bill.

It became Sturgeon's bill as soon as the SNP whipped their MSPs to vote for it. 

[Londonwell]

5 hours ago, virginton said:

I've genuinely no real preference (and also wouldn't have a say in the decision as I'm not a party member). But Sturgeon has clearly missed her best opportunity to bow out round about the time of Covid winding down and the exit choices only get more grisly from here. 

A reset of the SG, with the opportunity to clear house and also to think twice about some of the dafter policies (such as the looming recycling deposit scheme binfire) has much to recommend it. 

So you want Sturgeon gone but have no idea who should replace her? 

Solid plan. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

10 minutes ago, virginton said:

It became Sturgeon's bill as soon as the SNP whipped their MSPs to vote for it. 

Labour whipped their MSPs to vote for it as well.

Does that make it Anas Sarwar's bill? 

 

[Trogdor]

2 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It's why I wasn't particularly happy regards the intervention on Isla Bryson - they really should have let the SPS make an independent decision.  By intervening as they did they just gave ammo to the opposition, especially those using the trans rapists attack - they've effectively undermined the bill by making the link.

I have to agree with you here. Given the mantra that the SPS had robust risk assessments when the GRA was being debated and this very scenario posited it seemed like a total 180 when the situation actually arose. 

I also think its unsustainable to cite that a GRC doesn't confer additional rights. It does and I'm not sure why this has been shied away from? It is precisely the point of a GRC. A GRC stating you are a woman gives you all rights in the Equality Act reserved for women. As it should do.

Sturgeon has always struck me as a pragmatist first and foremost and an incrementalist. On this issue it's becoming clear that she has moved a lot faster than the electorate. She also hasn't been well advised and the SG has made a right mess of communicating it. 

When she accused those against the bill of using women’s rights as cover for their transphobia, misogyny, homophobia and racist tendencies was also exceptionally tone deaf and ill advised.

This debacle is largely self inflicted. Not enough time was spent bringing the electorate with them. Or even engaging with the sensible people on the other side of the debate. 

In principle, making it easier for a trans person to get a GRC is perfectly reasonable and yet we've ended up in a culture war inferno.

Edit - This would maybe have been better in the Gender Debate thread tbf.

Edited February 14, 2023 by Trogdor

[vikingTON]

57 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

So you want Sturgeon gone but have no idea who should replace her? 

Solid plan. 

The onus is on the SNP membership to identify a suitable leader, through the mechanism of a leadership contest. Unless you propose that Sturgeon stays in charge of the party indefinitely until every single one of her critics nominates someone else to take over.  

Yours is the same idiotic argument that happy-clapper football fans trot out on a monthly basis on this forum, incidentally. 

[ScotiaNostra]

whats the opinion on the greens impact to the indy vote? positive, negative or no impact 

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

whats the opinion on the greens impact to the indy vote? positive, negative or no impact 

I'm not confident I'm interpreting the question correctly but my answer is no impact. Folk who vote Green would be inclined towards voting for independence anyway. I don't think the Greens act to shore those voters up on it.

[Londonwell]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

The onus is on the SNP membership to identify a suitable leader, through the mechanism of a leadership contest. Unless you propose that Sturgeon stays in charge of the party indefinitely until every single one of her critics nominates someone else to take over.  

Yours is the same idiotic argument that happy-clapper football fans trot out on a monthly basis on this forum, incidentally. 

I think she has been in the job too long but the sad fact remains that there's a talent dearth underneath her and no one that I know of is better for the position. 

You carry on though with your old (virgin) man shouts at cloud routine.

[Richey Edwards]

I wish all of the political parties would f**k off.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

There is a dearth or political talent in Scotland as a whole. The Tories are a bunch of mouth-breathing simpletons led by an bigoted idiot with three jobs, none of which he is particularly good at.

Anas Sarwar is pretty shite, but it speaks volumes that he he isn't quite as bad as his predecessors and therefore managed to buck the trend of Labour somehow appointing exponentially more useless individuals to the post every time the incumbent resigned. 

The Lib Dems 

NS has perhaps been around too long however I don't think any of the current MSPs could really step up. Mhairi Black would be a pretty good replacement imo. The likes of Cherry etc and get fired into the fucking sun. 

GRA has been blown completely out of proportion by the sorts of folk who'd have been spitting feathers about the decriminalisation of homosexuality decades ago. Some of the comments and accusations levelled at trans folk have been nothing short of disgraceful bigotry, and perfect examples of that good old british tradition of punching down on marginalised groups of often vulnerable people. 

I think a bigger issue for me (which doesn't seem to have been widely publicised as yet) is Social Security Scotland's utter uselessness. 

[Londonwell]

@virginton might want to keep an eye on the news today…

[vikingTON]

10 hours ago, Londonwell said:

I think she has been in the job too long but the sad fact remains that there's a talent dearth underneath her and no one that I know of is better for the position. 

So your grand strategy is to wait and see until some uniquely talented leader suddenly emerges within Sturgeon's faction of the party to take over? Truly inspiring stuff.

A smarter political party changes its leader while still in government and with the scope to refresh its entire front bench in terms of people and ideas. Drawing a nice thick line under the disastrous handling of GRR and the Murrell liability is IMO as good a time as any to do so. 

[Londonwell]

45 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

@virginton might want to keep an eye on the news today…