thepundit Posted September 21, 2014 Share Posted September 21, 2014 How clear and reliable does it need to be before it's discussed on a football forum? The poll isn't just being discussed on a football forum though. Even certain politicians have made comments which were based on this poll (unless they have info from other polls but there hasn't been any others as far as I'm aware) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The issues with sample size still apply. Particularly in the young age group.. how many respondents were there? Under 20 or something? This poll is being seized on by Yes supporters who have been horribly wrong about polling all the way along because they like the result. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/22/city-trader-bet-900000-scotland-no-vote-scottish-referendum 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todders Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Yeah, just one poll since the referendum. Taking the result from 2000 and applying it to 3.6m voters is daft. You could apply that same logic to every single poll the britnats were furiously wanking over. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 it only contains 100 under 24s. the media keeps on reporting on it as if it provides definitive proof of the outcome... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted September 23, 2014 Author Share Posted September 23, 2014 Headline from this YOUGOV poll... ' No thanks won every age group apart from 25-39 ' http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Guess that's YOUGOV back on the naughty step? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Headline from this YOUGOV poll... ' No thanks won every age group apart from 25-39 ' http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Guess that's YOUGOV back on the naughty step? Bbbut pensioners. Yes won all the working age groups. Im looking forward to 'well i always trusted that Ashcroft chap throughout... he s the gold standard of pollsters'. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Headline from this YOUGOV poll... ' No thanks won every age group apart from 25-39 ' http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Guess that's YOUGOV back on the naughty step? It would be interesting to know which one of all these final predictions was correct, in terms of voting of demographics. I mean, can we blame the pensioners, and hope for more cold winters, or can't we? I'm so confused. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Bbbut pensioners. Yes won all the working age groups. Im looking forward to 'well i always trusted that Ashcroft chap throughout... he s the gold standard of pollsters'. That Professor Curtice, darling of the media, also had the key factors as OAPs, English people who have made Scotland their home, and the middle classes. Although, surely the middle classes encompasses some of the OAPs and English in Scotland? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Can't argue with the YouGov summary. Seems fairly spot on. I couldn't see the results by age group. What page are they on? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Headline from this YOUGOV poll... ' No thanks won every age group apart from 25-39 ' http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/19/scottish-independence-final-prediction/ Guess that's YOUGOV back on the naughty step? Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 The aschroft poll broke the age groups down differently, having six age groups vs the four in YouGov, which makes it harder to compare the two. It's also a wee bit difficult to cross reference the pre and post voting intention given the lack of response factor in YouGov. Looking at the way the age groups break down, Ashcroft shows a small lead in yes for 45-54 and a huge No lead in 55-65. YouGov's 41-59 straddles both of those, so it's not inconsistent that it gives the overall backing to No in that age group, as the small ashcroft yes lead in 45-54 is more than balanced out by the No lead in 55-65. Same goes for the bottom two age groups. The 18-25 group showed a No lead in ashcroft (all those Labour activist students!) with 16-17s (a small subsample as well) showed a massive lead for Yes. Again, it's not inconsistent with YouGov when they combine those two age groups that there is a slim No lead. I don't think either poll is saying anything radically different. There is no doubt that Yes was in contention across all age groups up to the baby boomer mob, at which point they got absolutely creamed. If you break the age groups down differnelty the position looks more positive for yes than not, but it's pretty much the same picture - what opened up the big gap was reluctance amongst older people, middle class homeowners and folk reisdent in scotland from other parts of the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% No it doesnt. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRob72 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 You could apply that same logic to every single poll the britnats were furiously wanking over. Aye the pollsters were miles off, their margins were nowhere near wide enough! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 (edited) Excluding over 65s gives yes 51% No it doesnt. 51% Yes matches my calculation for the weighted average from the Voting Intentions Sept 15-17 The problem with that number is that it was intentions as opposed to actual votes. H_B is presumably looking at the Combined totals for postal voters and people that answered the recontact survey on Friday asking how they voted. That comes out as 49.4% Yes for under 65s and 49.9% for under 60s. The problem with that number is that the follow up poll was missing responses from 22% of the original sample so this subset will be incomplete at best and have a systematic bias at worst. The number of nonrespondants is clearly skewed by age so in terms of analysis of results by age we should be very wary of it. Edited September 24, 2014 by topcat(The most tip top) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Anyone know if there's any post referendum polling planned? After a month or so...? Will be interesting to see the figures. My gut feeling is that support for independence has dropped since the 19th. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Anyone know if there's any post referendum polling planned? After a month or so...? Will be interesting to see the figures. My gut feeling is that support for independence has dropped since the 19th. Nothing as far as I can see. The closest we got was a Panelbase poll asking about what powers Scotland would want to see devolved. Think it'll be a while before we see one, might not see one until Curtice's SSAS 2015. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nothing as far as I can see. The closest we got was a Panelbase poll asking about what powers Scotland would want to see devolved. Think it'll be a while before we see one, might not see one until Curtice's SSAS 2015. Ahh well it will be back down to 23% if that's the case 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 John Curtice. Unionist Stooge 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Anyone know if there's any post referendum polling planned? After a month or so...? Will be interesting to see the figures. My gut feeling is that support for independence has dropped since the 19th. My gut feeling is that it's risen. About as pointless as your gut feeling. I don't know anyone in real life that's changed their mind on the issue but it's not even a month later tbf. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.