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Latest Polls and Latest Odds


Lex

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Really?

I listen to Radio 5 and/or Radio Scotland most mornings and they have been all over it the last few weeks.

Other than that I've seen basically nothing apart from the the "No Thanks" in the farmer's fields and the "Yes" stickers on the shitty cars. Not one person in my work or at my door.

I'm voting YES by the way before I receive the vitriol of the masses.

Have you ventured into Dundee city centre any time recently?

This kind of shit doesn't happen at any other election.

Take P&B as another example - the level of interest here is quite considerable.

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Really?

I listen to Radio 5 and/or Radio Scotland most mornings and they have been all over it the last few weeks.

Other than that I've seen basically nothing apart from the the "No Thanks" in the farmer's fields and the "Yes" stickers on the shitty cars. Not one person in my work or at my door.

I'm voting YES by the way before I receive the vitriol of the masses.

Everything is relative. I've not been canvassed either but I'm surprised that you're questioning the amount of campaigning. I live in Monifieth, hardly a hotbed of activity, yet there's been a stall every Saturday on the High Street. A very large percentage of the people in Monifieth will, at the very least, have been offered leaflets, etc. That's more campaigning activity than you will see at most elections.

I work in Dundee. Lots of activity in Dundee centre, and Dundee is the type of small city where lots of folk go into the centre. Also lots of knocking of doors in the housing schemes.

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Not sure

I was in Dortmund last wk for match, mostly Yes.. I spoke to two Nos, they basically said that they may not bother voting..conscious thing

In that environment there is also peer pressure to consider though. A lot of fans may have been worried about being seen as 'less Scottish' and felt they had to fit in with that crowd.

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I don't buy papers and I wouldn't read the sun if it was given to me...

But do people that do think that the Suns declaration would make any difference either way?

Like would someone think, that's it I'm voting yes/no because the Sun says so. Really? I find that baffling.

If you're undecided then it may take just one article to persuade you, so if you buy a paper that's backing a side either way then yes, an strong editorial might just sway you.

Anyone who is undecided at this stage either hasn't engaged with the debate or haven't understood anything they've been told, and are far more likely to vote with the heart or "gut feeling".

However, the sun has 200,000 daily readers. There's maybe 15% undecided according to polls. Maybe 20% of that could be swayed by a paper. What's that, 6,000 readers possibly swayed, and even then that's being generous.

Not really the game changer everyone thinks it is.

Edited by La_Leyenda
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- the fact that they are just within the margin of error to allow them a get out clause if Yes wins.

That would only allow them a get out clause if Yes wins narrowly. If it was 52-48 Yes then that would still lie outside their margin of error.

I think these polls are probably fair and represent the stated voting intentions of the cross-section of people who they have surveyed. However, they still face the dual issues of a) whether those stated voting intentions are honest and accurate and b) whether the people surveyed are truly representative of the people who will vote on Thursday.

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Whilst I think the turnout will be very high, there are still probably 15-20% of people who won't vote. How do pollsters take account of these? Can a fair percentage of 'don't knows' be people who won't actually vote but aren't willing to admit it?

I think there is weighting based upon the question of likelihood to vote but I'm wondering if this covers my point.

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For over 55% to happen there would probably need to be at least some areas with two-thirds majorities. How likely is that based on past voting patterns? If there is a very high turnout Yes might be able to stumble over the line. The three amigos would not have made such a clear cut vow on more devolution if their internal polling was telling them it was in the bag.

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Really?

I listen to Radio 5 and/or Radio Scotland most mornings and they have been all over it the last few weeks.

Other than that I've seen basically nothing apart from the the "No Thanks" in the farmer's fields and the "Yes" stickers on the shitty cars. Not one person in my work or at my door.

I'm voting YES by the way before I receive the vitriol of the masses.

I've had stuff through the door practically every day from both sides.

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In just over 24 hours the people of Scotland are faced with a truly monumental decision one which has caused arguments,disagreements,heated and passionate exchanges and some really positive refreshing debates amongst not only politicians but between us the ordinary people of Scotland who on Thursday will decide what path we take for the future.

I think it boils down to this if you genuinely are happy with the way things are just now and have been for a long time and believe we are better as part of UK of course i would expect you to vote yes.Equally for those people who feel that the country we currently live in is a place of inequality,social injustice and feel as completely unhappy wit the way things have been heading for years i would expect most will vote YES.

I think the real vote changers in this election are the Voters who are still not completely sure which way they will cast their Vote come Thursday and i think there are still a fair few around,sometimes may be leaning slightly one way then a few days later back the other.

All i can say is this no one in life who has ever achieved anything whether it be your great explorers,artists,revolutionists,scientists,Entrepreneurs without taking a chance and believing that you can not only pursue your hope & dreams but with a lot of hard work and determination you can make these dreams a reality.

Will it be easy of course not,i think any great achievement in life is never easy you have to work at it,there may be many ups & downs on the way but when your goal is achieved you will never look back with regret.

It is up to the People of Scotland to decide this Thursday and i for one hope that in the end you will cast your vote not based on fear of what could go wrong but on the hope of all the things that we as an independent Country can achieve when working together.

I really think we can build a Scotland which will be fairer,more equal and have Governments that actually reflect more of the will, of the Scottish people than we can ever have if we don't change things.

We can build a great Nation not just for ourselves but for the future of many generations to come.

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Over last few days my mood has swung back & forwards as at times from what i have seen & heard i think the No's will win and then next day i see events unfolding & talk to other people which makes me believe that on the ground especially in Glasgow Yes may get a really great result which will be catalyst to victory.

Tonight was very interesting i stopped at my local pool hall to have a few games and talk to a lot of the guys who lay in same club as i do and it was quite evident that their was a 2 to 1 edge to yes amongst about 16-18 of the guys there.Also on talkng to three in more detail whilst one told me at his work about 90% were voting NO one of the other guys said at his office it was about 60-40 in favour of the YES side and the other said virtually everyone he knew was a yes voter.

However talking to the Barman( i know him reasonably well) was perhaps the most illuminating thing,he has a real active interest in politics and he confirmed 2 things which have been mentioned on here already,he is a No voter and he said he can usually tell the Yes voters because they keep banging on about it unlike himself and others that are voting No.That would indicate that i believe there are a lot of silent No voters out there.

The positive thing was that he mentioned he was fed up over last 4 weeks being lectured by dozens of guys about why he should vote a certain way "who as he said "have never voted in their entire bloody life and who have just signed up so they can vote for first time ever in this election and who know nothing about politics".

The way he said it made it clear that these dozens of people registered to vote for first time ever definitely seem to be planning to vote YES and that gives me hope,if the YES team can get these voters out in numbers in Glasgow and other major cities i think YES has a real chance.

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In just over 24 hours the people of Scotland are faced with a truly monumental decision one which has caused arguments,disagreements,heated and passionate exchanges and some really positive refreshing debates amongst not only politicians but between us the ordinary people of Scotland who on Thursday will decide what path we take for the future.

I think it boils down to this if you genuinely are happy with the way things are just now and have been for a long time and believe we are better as part of UK of course i would expect you to vote yes.Equally for those people who feel that the country we currently live in is a place of inequality,social injustice and feel as completely unhappy wit the way things have been heading for years i would expect most will vote YES.

I think the real vote changers in this election are the Voters who are still not completely sure which way they will cast their Vote come Thursday and i think there are still a fair few around,sometimes may be leaning slightly one way then a few days later back the other.

All i can say is this no one in life who has ever achieved anything whether it be your great explorers,artists,revolutionists,scientists,Entrepreneurs without taking a chance and believing that you can not only pursue your hope & dreams but with a lot of hard work and determination you can make these dreams a reality.

Will it be easy of course not,i think any great achievement in life is never easy you have to work at it,there may be many ups & downs on the way but when your goal is achieved you will never look back with regret.

It is up to the People of Scotland to decide this Thursday and i for one hope that in the end you will cast your vote not based on fear of what could go wrong but on the hope of all the things that we as an independent Country can achieve when working together.

I really think we can build a Scotland which will be fairer,more equal and have Governments that actually reflect more of the will, of the Scottish people than we can ever have if we don't change things.

We can build a great Nation not just for ourselves but for the future of many generations to come.

What decision is that then?

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Not seen them but apparently the 3 polls just released (ICM Opinium Survation) are all showing round about the same % as before 48/52 (Y/N). If that is the case then there are two things we can take from those figures and they are positives for both sides:

The plus for the No: The surge in Yes votes has been stopped.

The plus for the Yes: The 3 stooges and massive scare stories of the last couple of days hasn't had an impact.

Personally, I think that this is a positive for the Yes campaign overall as the No camp have no cards left to play; scaring and Westminster politicians visiting isn't going to improve the figures for the No vote, however an impassioned plea to the Scottish people to seize the day could, imo, help the Yes vote.

Of course people would expect me to say that, but it's what I think.

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Over last few days my mood has swung back & forwards as at times from what i have seen & heard i think the No's will win and then next day i see events unfolding & talk to other people which makes me believe that on the ground especially in Glasgow Yes may get a really great result which will be catalyst to victory.

Tonight was very interesting i stopped at my local pool hall to have a few games and talk to a lot of the guys who lay in same club as i do and it was quite evident that their was a 2 to 1 edge to yes amongst about 16-18 of the guys there.Also on talkng to three in more detail whilst one told me at his work about 90% were voting NO one of the other guys said at his office it was about 60-40 in favour of the YES side and the other said virtually everyone he knew was a yes voter.

However talking to the Barman( i know him reasonably well) was perhaps the most illuminating thing,he has a real active interest in politics and he confirmed 2 things which have been mentioned on here already,he is a No voter and he said he can usually tell the Yes voters because they keep banging on about it unlike himself and others that are voting No.That would indicate that i believe there are a lot of silent No voters out there.

The positive thing was that he mentioned he was fed up over last 4 weeks being lectured by dozens of guys about why he should vote a certain way "who as he said "have never voted in their entire bloody life and who have just signed up so they can vote for first time ever in this election and who know nothing about politics".

The way he said it made it clear that these dozens of people registered to vote for first time ever definitely seem to be planning to vote YES and that gives me hope,if the YES team can get these voters out in numbers in Glasgow and other major cities i think YES has a real chance.

It may simply boil down to whether there are more first time yessers or more silent noers. It's impossible to call IMO. I too waver between think no and yes will win. It's a very much like how I feel before Raith play a Scottish Cup QF game against a better team or suchlike: my head says no we won't win, don't be silly, but I've seen us do something special and against the odds several times so who knows.

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Not seen them but apparently the 3 polls just released (ICM Opinium Survation) are all showing round about the same % as before 48/52 (Y/N). If that is the case then there are two things we can take from those figures and they are positives for both sides:

The plus for the No: The surge in Yes votes has been stopped.

The plus for the Yes: The 3 stooges and massive scare stories of the last couple of days hasn't had an impact.

Those are likely contradictory. The 3 stooges and the fear/negativity onslaught stopped the surge.

It's becoming clear that Yes need a very high share of the Undecideds (many of whom might stay home), or for the polls to be unrepresentative in the favour of No. If the suspicion that a majority of undecideds will play it safe and vote for the status quo, Yes needs the polls to be off by a distance, well beyond the margin of error.

If I had to bet on it then it's still a No win in the region of 55-45.

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If it is on a knife edge as they keep saying, which I do not believe, why aren't the bookies having the YES vote at 10-11, and the NO vote at 10-11, the usual prices in a two horse close race. It is 2-7 NO , and YES is out to 3-1. The bookies obviously don't believe it is anywhere near a knife edge either.

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If ever there was a proof needed to show you are not in the country but observing from some distance, it's that summation.

I'm not sure what relevance that has nor why it'd need to be proved or otherwise.

Where do you think I've gone wrong in my reasoning in my previous post? Without resorting to subjective observational 'street level' stuff like 'there are more yes stickers in windows on my road', 'all my pals workplaces are 65%+ Yes' and 'did you no see those rallies over the last week?'.

Edited by banana
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