Mr. Bojangles Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1395527499.559791.jpg That picture of Lamont could easily be photoshopped with Milliband holding her marionette strings. In case anyone has some time on their hands. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It wouldn't be especially surprising if ICM registered a narrowing on February's poll. They also registered a 5 point swing towards the No campaign between January and February. In January there was a 7-point gap (37-44) and February a 12 point one (37-49). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So we're looking at 39-46-15? Bear in mind that February with ICM churned out 37-49-14, and in January churned out 37-44-19 we're looking at a bunch of polls broadly within the margin of error of each other, and a roughly even split of a reduced don't knows figure among both sides. It's not evidence of any great surge of momentum in either direction. It suggests the polls are a bit more volatile than they've been, but not much. We can't really deduce much from this. The 5 point swing this purports to show has simply served to cancel out a swing of the same magnitude in the opposite direction a month ago. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Here's John Curtice' view after todays poll. ICM’s findings prompted the independent polling expert Professor John Curtice to say that Better Together is “beginning to look like a campaign in trouble”. Writing in today’s Scotland on Sunday, Curtice said: “Frightening voters with messages of economic doom and gloom is not working…a more confident and convincing vision is needed.” Pleasing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 So we're looking at 39-46-15? Bear in mind that February with ICM churned out 37-49-14, and in January churned out 37-44-19 we're looking at a bunch of polls broadly within the margin of error of each other, and a roughly even split of a reduced don't knows figure among both sides. It's not evidence of any great surge of momentum in either direction. It suggests the polls are a bit more volatile than they've been, but not much. We can't really deduce much from this. The 5 point swing this purports to show has simply served to cancel out a swing of the same magnitude in the opposite direction a month ago. Sorry champ, but three polls going from 37-37-39 and 44-49-46 is regardless of the obvious margin of error a surface-based shift towards Yes. Which given a similar change in most other polling data since the turn of the year, draws a line under the clear fact that Yes has substantially gained upon No - with yet a considerable distance to catch up - over the next six months. That much is indisputable, as is confirmed by the analysis of Professor John Curtice who spends far more time and with far more credibility analysing the situation than law trolls. Thanks for playing anyway, 'self-declared Yes voter'. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Here's John Curtice' view after todays poll. ICM’s findings prompted the independent polling expert Professor John Curtice to say that Better Together is “beginning to look like a campaign in trouble”. Writing in today’s Scotland on Sunday, Curtice said: “Frightening voters with messages of economic doom and gloom is not working…a more confident and convincing vision is needed.” Pleasing. Project fear plus Lamont equals more votes for yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Professor Curtice, not a man known for his nationalist leanings said "The No side is beginning to look like a campaign in trouble" Lets just leave that quote there for all Unionists to mull over for a while...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Project fear plus Lamont equals more votes for yes. The 19th is looking more and more like "let's all have a disco" day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Does the Yes campaign still need a seismic shift? Just checking... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 (edited) Does the Yes campaign still need a seismic shift? Just checking... No are rowing away frantically in the lead, YES are tucked in and still on the bridle. Do No have anything left for the final surge? Will YES find plenty in the closing stages? Edited March 23, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 This poll appears to have Yes Scotland at the same as they were in the Record/Survation poll, 2 weeks ago, and a couple of points up on the last ICM poll, a shift yes, but not a significant shift as the paper claims, as for John Curtice, knows his stuff, but he does come down on the side of the nationalists Are you for real? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Are you for real? It is only my view 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is only my view Unaffected by evidence, apparently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 (edited) Not voting is an option - I agree. And how do you quantify that in terms of the election? Only two piles will be created. One labelled Yes and the other No. That means you ignore the Don't Knows. To be honest I'm really not sure what your point is here. You've even acknowledged my point that a Don't Know can go 3 ways. I'm making no assumptions about an even split. The onlystatistically valid way to deal with them is to ignore them until they decide. BTW "reputable" pollsters? Why are panelbase not reputable? Were they not ridiculed in 2011? Were they not the pollsters to put SNP in front in 2011? Edited March 23, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I have no idea. They were right though if they did. Out of all of them perhaps they were the only pollsters to actually get their predictions correct. I can't remember. I just remember standing amongst lots of others watching the results come in on the big screen. Staggering. I'll never forget it. Neither do I, Renton will know which pollster stood out on it's own. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Panalbase had a poll last August which gave Yes Scotland a single point lead, until recently the only poll that had Yes Scotland over 40% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Not voting is an option - I agree. And how do you quantify that in terms of the election? Only two piles will be created. One labelled Yes and the other No. That means you ignore the Don't Knows. To be honest I'm really not sure what your point is here. You've even acknowledged my point that a Don't Know can go 3 ways. I'm making no assumptions about an even split. The onlystatistically valid way to deal with them is to ignore them until they decide. BTW "reputable" pollsters? Why are panelbase not reputable? There are 2 other options - don't vote or spoil you ballot. Panelbase - issues with how they screen their polls - this is not just for the independence polls but all of them. They just aren't reliable imho. In any case I'm not a great believer in looking at one-off polls - you are better looking at trends across polls - it still looks static to me. That could change of course but the nearer we get to September the less time to persuade. I still believe Yes have a chance but that is not polls but pure gut instinct telling me that the No vote is softer than the Yes vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 There are 2 other options - don't vote or spoil you ballot. Panelbase - issues with how they screen their polls - this is not just for the independence polls but all of them. They just aren't reliable imho. In any case I'm not a great believer in looking at one-off polls - you are better looking at trends across polls - it still looks static to me. That could change of course but the nearer we get to September the less time to persuade. I still believe Yes have a chance but that is not polls but pure gut instinct telling me that the No vote is softer than the Yes vote. Are we still looking at a "seismic shift"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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