thepundit Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It has moved 2% on panelbase towards Yes 38% to 40%, No losing the 2%, where as in Ipsos/MORI Yes vote has lost 2% going from 34% to 32%, No staying steady at 57%, YouGov showing Yes only up 3%, 32% to 35%, No only losing 1% now at 52%, so what does this say? Alex Salmond said on the Andrew Marr show that Yes was up at 45% now. What poll was that?.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It says you should not put too much emphasis on a single poll but focus on the trend instead. A best fit line approximation through the trend will tell you what's happening and will indicate error bars on your results. It's the only statistically relevant thing to do. The trend is clearly showing a narrowing of the gap. That isn't in doubt and frankly I think you'll struggle to find anyone with a brain who doesn't privately acknowledge that. The only important question about the polls is where they predict a crossover from majority No to majority Yes. Do they predict that to happen before September? I'm not sure if they are converging fast enough or not. My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Alex Salmond said on the Andrew Marr show that Yes was up at 45% now. What poll was that?.... The Daily Record/Survation poll had Yes 39% No 48% DKs 13%, if you removed the DKs it showed Yes 45% No 55% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My point is the fact at the current rate they are narrowing, but at the present rate they will not crossover, before the vote There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet. The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period. Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment. In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet. The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period. Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment. In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum. I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There are still a lot of voters that are not really engaging with the campaign as yet. The referendum won't be lost or won in March. Many will make up their minds in the official campaign period. Yes it's nice to see your campaign in the lead or your campaign showing momentum, but it's only a snap shot of how things are at the moment. In my opinion it will be late August early September before we know who is likely to win this referendum. A wee bit rose-tinted, glass half-full kind of look at it I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle. For once a common sense view of the subject 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd agree to an extent. But unless there is seismic shift in voting intentions then Yes still face an uphill battle. A seismic shift? The last poll showed a 3% swing would have Yes winning 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A seismic shift? The last poll showed a 3% swing would have Yes winning As most polls have a +/- 3% error then that's meaningless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As most polls have a +/- 3% error then that's meaningless. If we're sitting with the same results mid August and they're all accurate reflections YES will require a seismic shift,as it is, most of the poor that are being re-engaged will be voting YES, Scotland to it and the UK's shame has fcuking loads of disengaged poor, it's game on as far as I'm concerned. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Just watch the pish Lamont is spouting that should be good for a point or two. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I early 2012 there was 2 polls ipsos/MORI had 39% for Yes, Panelbase 37% for yes, it is today at best 40%, but don't worry still 6 months to go 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 (edited) Just watch the pish Lamont is spouting that should be good for a point or two. It's frightening how many people believe her version of events. Edited March 22, 2014 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepundit Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's frightening how many people believe her version of events. Yeah, like keeping a currency union, remaining in the EU and with same conditions as the UK, the UK deficit being higher than Scotlands, polls having Yes at 45% etc... Oh wait, that was someone else wasn't it?.... Never mind. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 As most polls have a +/- 3% error then that's meaningless. So what % do you class as seismic? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 So what % do you class as seismic? If Yes start to consistently get well above 40% (heading towards 45%) then they have a serious chance. Even on the most optimistic polls Yes require a swing of around 20% (effectively +10%). That's tough. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Eh? The panelbase (?) poll puts No on 53% and Yes on 47%. Where are you getting 10% swing from? If you are including Dont Knows you really need to justify this because I can't follow that logic. You just can't exclude don't knows. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 (edited) IP You MUST if you want anything statistically relevant. "Don't Know" isn't a ballot paper option. Not voting is an option. That's why don't know can't be ignored. You can't assume they will break evenly to either side or not vote at all.Also I would say that Panelbase is not exactly the best organisation to be doing any sort of polling. Poor screening is one of the major criticisms that has been aimed in their direction. I'd be more inclined to look at the trend with the more reputable polling organisations. What would be more interesting if there had been private polling showing a trend either way - but I'm not aware there has been anything of significance leaked by either campaign. My gut tells me that things (for the moment) are pretty static. That may change but we shall see. Edited March 22, 2014 by DeeTillEhDeh 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecto Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 (edited) The polls have moved a couple of points for the Yes campaign, but not moved enough for them to feel a difference, so suddenly prompted by Daily Record/Sturvation poll, which polled 39% Yes, 48%, DKs 13%, when you take out the DKs, it becomes Yes 45%, No 55%, Yes Scotland and the SNP have taken the poll rating without the DKs and are running with it, hard Edited March 22, 2014 by ecto 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 But but but... swings... There's a faint whiff of the 2011 campaign in this poll trend against a 'soft' lead, I for one hope it leads to the same decisive result. When it comes to the street fighting I have no doubt which side is more motivated and funded to win. It just needs to get that far. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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