Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Dipped Flake]

I'm starting to believe this may be possible.

I go through a range of emotions every few days. I hear loads of good things coming out from the YES camp and I start to think 'we might actually do this' then we get the latest line of propaganda/scare stories from westminster and the media trumpet this as another nail in the coffin of the YES campaign and I start to despair again. I really, really want to see more polls showing a move towards YES; doesn't have to be a huge shift, just confirmation that the momentum, even after all the biased reporting, is for YES

[ayrmad]

I go through a range of emotions every few days. I hear loads of good things coming out from the YES camp and I start to think 'we might actually do this' then we get the latest line of propaganda/scare stories from westminster and the media trumpet this as another nail in the coffin of the YES campaign and I start to despair again. I really, really want to see more polls showing a move towards YES; doesn't have to be a huge shift, just confirmation that the momentum, even after all the biased reporting, is for YES

You sound like my son, he's on a rollercoaster of his own choosing.

[Mr Bairn]

So do the unionists on this forum still believe that YES haven't got the momentum ?

No

I'm starting to believe this may be possible.

The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.

[TheScarf]

I'm beginning to think it'll be a yes too.

[overthetop]

You sound like my son, he's on a rollercoaster of his own choosing.

I know how he feels can't say the information or debate from our pigmy politicians helps much.

[John Lambies Doos]

It will be Yes.. We are on a journey. Forward

[ecto]

No

The one thing that makes me want to vote yes is the idea that a no vote is a vote to "rent" the union for another few years. If the result is something like 48-52 then salmons will probably have another go of it.

It will also depend if he keeps a majority at Holyrood

[Ad Lib]

So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

[Jamaldo]

So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

Please define "Nat types". Is this simply anyone who is voting Yes? Is it any Yes voter who is passionate about it and not a pompous, negative twerp? I really need clarification.

Why do you use the "NCC" patter that Reynard coined, when you've called him an idiot? Note that your "there are enough people here to pull up Reynard on his nonsense" crap won't cut it here.

[ecto]

So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

It is a fact that the best poll ratings for Yes Scotland have come in polls conducted by panalbase

[Colkitto]

Very encouraging

[Ad Lib]

Please define "Nat types". Is this simply anyone who is voting Yes? Is it any Yes voter who is passionate about it and not a pompous, negative twerp? I really need clarification.

People like Colkitto.

Why do you use the "NCC" patter that Reynard coined, when you've called him an idiot? Note that your "there are enough people here to pull up Reynard on his nonsense" crap won't cut it here.

I don't use NCC. I use "Clown Collective". Because the people in question are Clowns and they form a Collective on here.

[Jamaldo]

People like Colkitto.

I don't use NCC. I use "Clown Collective". Because the people in question are Clowns and they form a Collective on here.

Not good enough. Try again.

[LinkinFighter]

And he claims to be a yes voter

[Baxter Parp]

So far as I can see, this is within the margin of error of previous Panelbase polls and most of the "momentum" in other pollsters, when taken over the long-term, show exactly the same trend. Very little change.

Funny how, having gone out of fashion among Nat types when it became static, Panelbase, which has consistently placed Yes more favourably than any other pollster, has suddenly become the team to cheerlead again.

Ad Lib the fervent yes voter, there. Edited March 20, 2014 by Baxter Parp

[Fotbawmad]

I genuinely think Bitter Together camp is starting to get worried. After all, they know they must protect their lead somehow, and the only way they can do that is to spread fear and negativity, but if they start to get desperate and go overboard with it, then it will have the opposite effect. However, the Yes campaign needs to debunk every accusation the No campaign makes. While trying to promote the long term benefits,

Edited March 20, 2014 by Fotbawmad

[Double Jack D]

I genuinely think Bitter Together camp is starting to get worried. After all, they know they must protect their lead somehow, and the only way they can do that is to spread fear and negativity, but if they start to get desperate and go overboard with it, then it will have the opposite effect. However, the Yes campaign needs to debunk every accusation the No campaign makes. While trying to promote the long term benefits,

Ed Milliband now claiming a No vote would honour the memory of the late John Smith.

That is appalling politics! What has happened to the Labour party?

[Savage Henry]

Exactly why would this be? So long as this poll uses the standard methodology and preamble of the other pb polls then it is comparable. There is no doubt the SNP commisioned poll did have a different methodology. There is no reason to suspect this one does as yet.

Who commissions the poll is irrelevent. Only the methodology is.

Ever see those videos from South By Southwest asking about imaginary bands? Hipster banging on about these made-up bands. Not one of the respondents says "I've never heard of these guys". For a poll using standard methodology to return a 15% "don't know" response flies in the face of statistical probability and human nature. People don't, as a rule, like to give no answer. They like to give an answer which is expected by whoever they think is conducting the poll.

Now, the respondents may well have had the impression that this was an SNP/Yes driven poll. But if not, given the significantly higher "yes" vote, I'd suggest this might, at best, be an outlier. Of course, we don't know the methodology or the questions asked or the preamble, but I'd be inclined to discount this poll on the grounds of the size of the undecided vote alone.

[Colkitto]

Good report for once on ITN News about the missing million voters who are re-registering on the Electoral Roll for the referendum vote.

For whatever reason these people just stopped voting and dropped off the electoral register. These people won't show up on opinion polls, so how will they vote?

As expected the turnout for the referendum vote will be high - 75%-85% as referenda always produce a high turnout.

My own theory is many of these missing voters just gave up on voting for parties. They would rather not vote at all and perhaps apathy has set in.

But they feel a referendum vote is different and meaningful. Will they go to the trouble of re-registering just to vote to keep things as they are? Or will they vote for something different?

[AUFC90]

Good report for once on ITN News about the missing million voters who are re-registering on the Electoral Roll for the referendum vote.

For whatever reason these people just stopped voting and dropped off the electoral register. These people won't show up on opinion polls, so how will they vote?

As expected the turnout for the referendum vote will be high - 75%-85% as referenda always produce a high turnout.

My own theory is many of these missing voters just gave up on voting for parties. They would rather not vote at all and perhaps apathy has set in.

But they feel a referendum vote is different and meaningful. Will they go to the trouble of re-registering just to vote to keep things as they are? Or will they vote for something different?

Apparently there are a lot of poor people in the missing million which can only be good for yes.