ayrmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 anyone catch the ONS report today? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e125b4a2-67dc-11e3-8ada-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2nuxdArdq It's not a surprise. As far as population projections go they overestimate the OAP numbers MORE than they do for rUK and they underestimate child numbers LESS than they do for rUK. It might not be deliberate but their method of forecasting needs tweaked, probably happen 2015 or later. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 For those of us that don't get the ft? I can't get access so I wish someone could copy paste it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The Office for National Statistics was forced into a humiliating retreat on Wednesday as it confirmed it would correct official figures that showed Scottish economic performance had been much worse than previously thought. The regional growth figures published on Wednesday morning showed Scotland’s economy growing at roughly half the pace between 1998 and 2011 than Edinburgh’s government believed, potentially changing the balance of the independence debate. But by last night, a spokesperson for the ONS admitted its statisticians had not accounted for inflation correctly and a new version of the experimental regional growth numbers would soon be published. The errors came to light after the Financial Times compared the figures with those published regularly by the Scottish government and found huge differences in the picture they painted of the economic health of the nation north of the border. Coming on the day the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee cast doubt on the official unemployment and growth numbers, the mistakes mark another chapter in a difficult period for Britain’s official statisticians. They are already under fire for revisions to business investment, which the BoE does not think make sense; its universally criticised website; suggesting drip-feeding statistics into the market every morning; proposing to abolish the census, its accounting of the Treasury’s grab of quantitative easing interest payments from the BoE and maintaining a statistically-flawed calculation measure for the retail prices index. The Scottish government’s data have always acknowledged a small “growth gap” with the rest of the UK, but record an expansion of 26 per cent between 1998 and 2011 at an annual average rate of 1.8 per cent. In contrast, the new ONS data, which attempted to split UK gross value added numbers into all the regions and nations for the first time, gave a more pessimistic account. The experimental series suggested growth was a little over half as fast, with 14 per cent growth over the same 13 years at an average annual rate of only 1 per cent. The ONS always cautioned that its data were experimental, but said the methods of collection and data sources are similar and it was unable on Wednesday to explain the huge differences between the data it published and those of the Scottish government. The gulf between the two sets of figures appeared to take the ONS by surprise. The discrepancy between the two sets of official figures would have had a significant effect on the Scottish independence debate. To the extent Scottish economic performance was worse than previously thought, figures would have reinforced nationalists’ belief that the Scottish economy was hampered by the malign influence of London, while unionists would have fretted that the data raised further questions over an independent Scotland’s ability to raise living standards and sustain healthy public finances. On Wednesday, Scottish officials were sure their data were far closer to the truth. A spokesperson for the Edinburgh government said: “The Scottish government’s measure is the official measure of Scottish growth. At this early stage in their development, these ONS statistics should not be considered robust.” John McLaren of the Centre for Public Policy for Regions said he welcomed efforts by the ONS to produce more detailed regional data but questioned why the experimental data had not been more carefully checked. He said there were some “very odd” features in the data – such as unfeasibly sharp falls in education and manufacturing activity – that meant its suggestion that overall Scottish growth had been overstated should be treated with great caution. Such was the difference between the two sets of figures that the ONS estimated that in 2011, Scotland’s economic output was 6.6 per cent below the pre-crisis peak, while the Scottish government’s data suggest output was only 2.4 per cent below the peak. The ONS introduced the data in response to demands for greater regional information about the British economy. The data have “experimental” status, which implies there are questions regarding their validity and their release stated the figures of the devolved governments were “more reliable”. But as the two series use “similar sources and methods”, the office has not provided an account of the huge differences 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I can't get access so I wish someone could copy paste it. See you found out about the good old copy and paste before the paywall appears. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 (edited) See you found out about the good old copy and paste before the paywall appears. I had to register to get 8 visits instead of 3. Ach 6.6% is not far way from 2.4%, garbage in garbage out. If you set out with a list of answers your forecasting won't be any good. Edited December 19, 2013 by ayrmad 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I had to register to get 8 visits instead of 3. Ach 6.6% is not far way from 2.4%, garbage in garbage out. Search for the item on Google, use the link in google news section of the results, copy and paste before the paywall comes up. No registering needed. Reynard will be along in a minute to let you know that the 4.2% difference when split between the whole country indicates that we would be better moving to Cumbria as the growth there is 0.00000003% less than Scotland and as we are speaking about %age behind previous levels, this number is preferable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Search for the item on Google, use the link in google news section of the results, copy and paste before the paywall comes up. No registering needed. Reynard will be along in a minute to let you know that the 4.2% difference when split between the whole country indicates that we would be better moving to Cumbria as the growth there is 0.00000003% less than Scotland and as we are speaking about %age behind previous levels, this number is preferable. Far better men and women than Reynard have failed miserably to show me why I should vote NO, the snowball is starting it's descent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 glad you got it, my laptop is playing up just now otherwise I would have pasted it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Those unionists have beem awfully quiet this last week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Scotland? And if you can't support them cause they don't play test cricket surely you'd support another team other than England? Jeeezis they even had me wound up before this Ashes on Talksport with their absolute unbelievably terrible arrogance and cockiness of how they were gonna sweep Australia aside, the interviews with players seemed dead cocky too, seems it's not only the media like it is with the football but the media and players too. Bunch of tossers and I have no clue why you support them This obviously has nothing whatsoever to do with Independence right enough but just replying as I find it ridic. Scotland haven't got a test side. If they ever do I will support Scotland, but as it is, they don't. I therefore support the test side that are not only nearest me, but actually part of the same country as me. Were I to support any other side I would have to travel to the West Indies or Asia, or even Australasia in order to watch my side play test cricket. Why do that when I could travel to Leeds or Durham or Manchester and support a team from my island and my continent. It makes no sense to follow another team just because England are our rivals in football and rugby, that rivalry isn't there in cricket so I see no reason not to support them. And trust me, when I first started watching cricket there was no-one involved with England in the least bit cocky or with anything to be cocky about. We've been success starved, a bit of cockiness during a rare sustained period of success isn't too surprising. Looks bad now though admittedly. Plus I was named after one of England and Yorkshire's greats. I'd feel like I was betraying my name-sake if I were to support anyone else. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 (edited) Nice to meet you Geoffrey. Edited December 19, 2013 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Nice to meet you Geoffrey. The pleasure is all mine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I can't stand Cricket. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOGI IS GOD Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Latest poll in Herald shows No falling 3 points and Yes rising by 2, just 14 points in it. http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/poll-shows-yes-campaign-is-closing-gap-in-race-for-votes.22992382 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 And the follow up to show the trend: Small month-by-month changes in opinion have now reduced the lead of the No vote by five percentage points since September, and by seven percentage points among those certain to vote. In September, 25% said they would vote Yes and 44% backed a No vote, giving an anti-independence lead of 19 percentage points, compared with just 14 points in the latest poll. Among those certain to vote, in the latest poll 45% intend to vote No, 30% will vote Yes and 25% don’t know how they will vote, giving the No vote a 15 percentage point lead. This is compared with the September poll when 50% said No, 28% said Yes and 22% said they did not know how they would vote - a 22 point lead for No. Thats right, 5 points down since September. Bring it. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-shows-yes-narrowing-gap-1-3239245 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Slowly but surely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Ipsos Mori is the microcosm imo, once they start to show a big swing, BT will get antsy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitter Sweet Symphony Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I don't think there is a single poll these days (apart from YouGuff) which shows a majority of support for naw. More and more people are becoming undecided or moving to yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Does anyone know what percentage the hardcore vote is likely to be on each side? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Does anyone know what percentage the hardcore vote is likely to be on each side? Not knowledge, as thats impossible to know, but I reckon (based on an educated guess) that the hardcore vote is probably a bit over 30% for both sides, with them both pretty much equal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.