Loki Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yes apologies, a slight miscalculation. 4/6 isn't the two wins out of three I was estimating. The No would be 1/2. A mathematical error at middle of the night has been the downfall of many a gambler. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Ignoring "Yes" for the moment, for No to be a true 1/2 shot it would suggest if you ran the vote 3 times, No would win on average 2 of them. I think that understates the probability. Ignoring the fact that the original odds have been amended to deal with influxes of large cash, the tissue at the start was a fair one. Around 1/5 versus 3/1. Or 1/4 and 5/2 in places I think. What I've never understood is the discrepancy in prices between a "yes" vote and Scotland actually being Independent. Paddy Power was I think the last one I looked at and had say a "Yes" vote at 5/1, but Scotland to be Independent by 2019 at 7 or 8 to 1. Other than the short wait for the cash, you're surely much better taking the better price. If we have a Yes vote we aren't going to change our mind within a year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Unionist in poll and odds obsession shocker. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 YES in half a point on betfair since last week. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How does it s price now compare to the start price when the market opened? Is there a tracker? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Live odds tracker here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swampy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How does it s price now compare to the start price when the market opened? Is there a tracker? 5.1 is the current price - the lowest at which it traded is 4.8, and that was a couple of months ago. Recently it was stuck around 6, and now it's back down to 5.1, with a very small amount (£18) available at that price. Not that it matters since it's a completely diddy, illiquid market at this point that is indicative of very little. By 8pm today the Leeds-Wigan game will have more on its match result market than this referendum has had so far. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 5.1 is the current price - the lowest at which it traded is 4.8, and that was a couple of months ago. Recently it was stuck around 6, and now it's back down to 5.1, with a very small amount (£18) available at that price. Not that it matters since it's a completely diddy, illiquid market at this point that is indicative of very little. By 8pm today the Leeds-Wigan game will have more on its match result market than this referendum has had so far. I've not used Betfair in several years now (fell out with them when they cheaped out on servers and it ran like a dog for months) but that's a little surprising when you hear of the figures Ladbrokes have taken. I know it's a different clientele, but it's a bit unusual to see a market the High Street chaps are taking 6 figure sums on attract such little interest on the exchange. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swampy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's because the high street is for mug punters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It's because the high street is for mug punters. I don't agree entirely. The guys "buying money" on No winning couldn't do so using Betfair. As you say the liquidity isn't there. They can only be accomodated at a Ladbrokes or Hills. Plus with a lot of the special offers bookies do (money back on fallers, extra places, double the odds on first goalscorers that score again etc) a lot of the initial good exchange value has been reduced. There are of course a lot of your "wee old men" types putting on best in the high street that they could be getting better odds on at Betfair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 In terms of an investment, I'm not sure how good a deal 1/5 or 1/6 is. Never having had a spare £100K I'm not sure how easy it is to get a decent divident from it. Is 20% in a year very good? Probably. But could you get nearly as much without giving it to Ladbrokes to hold onto you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Going by that I would say all that proves is that the Bookmaker's market isn't influenced that much by any poll thus far. On each poll I have seen and read the Yes vote has a greater chance than the 16.7% chance the bookmakers are suggesting. If you wanted to bet on the market, I would back the 5/1 with knowledge that the odds would come in closer to the event and you can trade out in profit. A market supplied by a bookmakers isn't influenced solely by the likelihood of an event occurring. It is heavily influenced by their liquidity and money being staked on a particular outcome. I would say that the early backers are putting their money on a No vote, and hence the Yes odds drifting to try and recoup liabilities on the market. There are many examples where a mathematical favourite to win an event has not been made favourite by a bookie. Hence taking bookies odds to try and make a point is deeply flawed. As for the poll I'm a bit surprised that the No vote isn't ahead by more. As with any election in my recent memory, odds and probabilities mean nothing until the election day. Of that 1006 polled how many will actually bother themselves to vote? The Yes needs a lot of help currently, but it isn't that large of a swing compared to election results in the past thirty years. I would make No 4/6 and Yes 2/1. Can I just point out that, suppose no is averaging 65% in the polls(note I just plucked the 65 figure out for arguments sake), that doesn't represent a 65% chance that no will win, in reality it would be much higher than that. It follows the bell curve, with the highest probability being that the no vote would be close to 65, then we need to measure the chance of no being above 50, which is much higher than 65% 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swampy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Can I just point out that, suppose no is averaging 65% in the polls(note I just plucked the 65 figure out for arguments sake), that doesn't represent a 65% chance that no will win, in reality it would be much higher than that. It follows the bell curve, with the highest probability being that the no vote would be close to 65, then we need to measure the chance of no being above 50, which is much higher than 65% This is very true. 70% is approaching landslide territory and statistical models allowing for simulation of hundreds of elections would return very, very few losses for that side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wingsoverperthshire Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Can I just point out that, suppose no is averaging 65% in the polls(note I just plucked the 65 figure out for arguments sake), that doesn't represent a 65% chance that no will win, in reality it would be much higher than that. It follows the bell curve, with the highest probability being that the no vote would be close to 65, then we need to measure the chance of no being above 50, which is much higher than 65% The problem with the Polls is we simply don't know who to trust. The No campaign is either just in front or way in front so either Panelbase or YouGov hasn't been honest and should be discredited. The Daily mail polls can be completely shredding for the bin. Their results "Claiming" labour is polling considerably higher than the SNP renders any information gathered worthless. They're polls are skewed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The problem with the Polls is we simply don't know who to trust. The No campaign is either just in front or way in front so either Panelbase or YouGov hasn't been honest and should be discredited. The Daily mail polls can be completely shredding for the bin. Their results "Claiming" labour is polling considerably higher than the SNP renders any information gathered worthless. They're polls are skewed. Personally trust the TNS results more than anything They got it spot on in 2011 and their results are quite consistent with each other(especially when the poll isn't commissioned by a third party) It shows yes at 25%, no has gone down recently and sits in the low-to-mid 40's, with a third of voters undecided. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Personally trust the TNS results more than anything They got it spot on in 2011 and their results are quite consistent with each other(especially when the poll isn't commissioned by a third party) It shows yes at 25%, no has gone down recently and sits in the low-to-mid 40's, with a third of voters undecided. There is no way support for independence is only 25%. Not fucking having it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 There is no way support for independence is only 25%. Not fucking having it. At the moment, that would be the "hard yes", but of the 32% undecided, it's reasonable to say that they like the idea of independence, they just haven't been convinced yet. The encouraging this for yes is that the TNS "no" figures are 48-51-47-44-43 and the "undecided" figure 24-19-28-31-32 (yes is 28-30-25-25-25) so what we've seen is a fairly sizeable swing from no over to undecided. This would suggest that these voters like the idea of independence. IMO, this is the best poll out there, and until the no campaign is solidly above 50% in this poll then it's really anyone's game. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wingsoverperthshire Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 At the moment, that would be the "hard yes", but of the 32% undecided, it's reasonable to say that they like the idea of independence, they just haven't been convinced yet. The encouraging this for yes is that the TNS "no" figures are 48-51-47-44-43 and the "undecided" figure 24-19-28-31-32 (yes is 28-30-25-25-25) so what we've seen is a fairly sizeable swing from no over to undecided. This would suggest that these voters like the idea of independence. IMO, this is the best poll out there, and until the no campaign is solidly above 50% in this poll then it's really anyone's game. Good post and although I believe yes is nearer 35% solid, I largely agree the middle ground is where it will be won and lost. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Good post and although I believe yes is nearer 35% solid, I largely agree the middle ground is where it will be won and lost. TNS released a new poll this morning, 26% yes, 42% no, 32% undecided, so that backs up my theory. 0.5% no > yes swing 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Starko Rover Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This would be a good vote swinger http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/better-together-blow-blundering-conservatives-2892611 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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