Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[picklish]

Cheers for the link, that's the kind of thing I'm looking for. I see Indy as bottom-up anyway, so there's the responsibility of the grassroots to try force these ideas into the public sphere, when the govt won't 

re: detailed plans - I know that UKGov won't publish anything of the sort - but do you think that the Scottish govt should equally not do? I can see benefits to pointing out that UKgov won't answer these, but I'm not sure how it would convince soft no's if the Scottish govt don't do the same. 

[Donathan]

I have absolutely no doubt that the period between a Yes win and the independence date, and the next 5-10 years after that, would see a significantly greater period of economic, political and social turmoil in Scotland that dwarves the turmoil the UK continues to undergo in the wake of Brexit.

 

That’s not necessarily an argument for voting No, because 10+ years of pain may be worth it for centuries of gain if you’re of the viewpoint that Scotland will prosper alone, but I don’t think the Yes side should shy away from this awkward quirk. It’s very difficult to persuade people to vote for a policy that is almost certain to make them poorer in the short term, especially those who don’t have the remaining lifespan to actually reap the benefits.

 

Firstly, you have to get the consent of the losing side. Barring something very unusual there’s going to be at least 40% (and far more likely 45%) of the voters that vote No again. Look at what happened in the UK between the 2016 EU referendum and the 2019 general election, the Remain side made every possible attempt to frustrate Brexit. 
 

You had calls for a soft Brexit, you had the Lib Dems calling for article 50 to be cancelled, you had protest movements, calls for a second referendum, parliamentary and legal gymnastics to remove power out of May and latterly Johnson’s hands, you had indicative votes that provided no solutions, and bizarre behaviour by Steve Bray.

 

There would of course be similar behaviour by unionists in the period between a successful referendum and independence being officially achieved. 
 

Secondly, the Scottish Government would be negotiating a deal with the UK government that doesn’t want to lose us. The UK government would have little incentive to concede much in the negotiations and would probably aim to serve us up such a rubbish deal in the hope that the political will in Scotland turns against the idea and its kiboshed.

 

Thirdly, trade barriers. 42% of UK exports and 48% of UK imports are to/from the EU. Conversely, 60% of Scottish exports and 67% of Scottish imports are to/from other parts of the UK. Any trading friction between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be felt at least as sorely as Brexit, if not significantly more so.

 

Fourthly, establishing diplomatic relations around the world and running key government departments is no mean feat. Whilst the Scottish government is responsible for the likes of health, education and transport, it has absolutely no experience of handling defence and foreign affairs. Furthermore, since the Labour government fell in 2010, only a small proportion of Scottish parliamentarians have experienced being in the government of an independent sovereign nation at all. By my count we had around 13 under the coalition, 1 under the second Cameron government, about a dozen after Theresa May’s hung Parliament election, and six now. None of them have held cabinet roles apart from Scottish secretaries Danny Alexander, Michael Moore, David Mundell and Alistair Jack.

 

Now, to borrow a quote from Johann Lamont, Scottish politicians aren’t genetically programmed to do a poor job at running these high profile government departments, but they are inexperienced and will take several years to find their feet.

Fifthly, there’s the currency thing. I think the long term desirable position would be to establish a Scottish currency, but this would take time and lead to fiscal volatility.

 

Sixthly, the EU debate. My view is that there will probably be a 3-option referendum following independence, with the options being 1. Stay out altogether, 2. Rejoin altogether, or 3. Join EFTA/EEA but not the EU

 

Option 2 would probably win, but I think the 3rd option would give it a right good go. After that there’s the non-insignificant matter of trying to get the best entry deal possible which would surely be significantly inferior to the terms the UK walked away from three years ago. 
 

Anyone expecting Scotland to be a land of milk and honey the day after a Yes vote has their head in the clouds. That doesn’t necessarily mean independence is a bad thing and won’t pay dividends in the medium to long term, but the first few years would be incredibly difficult. 

 

 

 

[ScotiaNostra]

you might be right but id still vote for it, , my problem is that I think the snp wont get us there so until we realise that its not likely to happen

[Donathan]

9 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

you might be right but id still vote for it, , my problem is that I think the snp wont get us there so until we realise that its not likely to happen

I’m at pains to say that people are perfectly entitled to vote for it. It’s entirely possible that the gains over several centuries outweigh the pain over a decade or so. 
 

Since @EV9 red dotted me, can I invite you to rebut my post? This isn’t meant as an anti independence argument in itself but just a rude awakening for anyone that thinks Scotland will improve from day one. 

[sophia]

38 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I’m at pains to say that people are perfectly entitled to vote for it. It’s entirely possible that the gains over several centuries outweigh the pain over a decade or so. 
 

Since @EV9 red dotted me, can I invite you to rebut my post? This isn’t meant as an anti independence argument in itself but just a rude awakening for anyone that thinks Scotland will improve from day one. 

You're equivalence with the Brexit aftermath isn't genuine.

The prospectus was a slogan or two and the ensuing debate was as legitimate as the leave offering was disingenuous.

As for this truism that we'll be in penury for a decade or more, well I don't buy it. Each decade in the last fifty years has brought a UK crisis and you'd have thought ingrained statecraft would've allowed for better outcomes.

 

[picklish]

The flip side of the mythical positive case for the union - the negative case for indy

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Independence would bring both challenges and opportunities. The Yes side need to articulate this honestly and positively.

[EV9]

On 30/05/2023 at 19:38, Donathan said:

I’m at pains to say that people are perfectly entitled to vote for it. It’s entirely possible that the gains over several centuries outweigh the pain over a decade or so. 
 

Since @EV9 red dotted me, can I invite you to rebut my post? This isn’t meant as an anti independence argument in itself but just a rude awakening for anyone that thinks Scotland will improve from day one. 

If your looking for feedback I got out the red paint because I thought it was a bad post and borderline a very bad post.  
 

There’s two sides of a P&L account and there’s a huge amount of waste we can cut from our expenditure.  
 

Take the war in Ukraine for example and Scotland has contributed nearly 500million pounds.  Small independent nations around us have donated 5-45 million.  
 

As an aside do you own an air dresser?  Because I’m thinking of getting one and just looking for feedback. 

Edited May 31, 2023 by EV9

[git-intae-thum]

The long-term continual decline of the UK economy.

https://www.reidfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Mismanagement.pdf

The UK is going to end up the very poor man of Europe. There is no sensible argument for remaining a subsidiary of Westminster.

[git-intae-thum]

On 30/05/2023 at 18:41, Donathan said:

I have absolutely no doubt that the period between a Yes win and the independence date, and the next 5-10 years after that, would see a significantly greater period of economic, political and social turmoil in Scotland that dwarves the turmoil the UK continues to undergo in the wake of Brexit.

 

That’s not necessarily an argument for voting No, because 10+ years of pain may be worth it for centuries of gain if you’re of the viewpoint that Scotland will prosper alone, but I don’t think the Yes side should shy away from this awkward quirk. It’s very difficult to persuade people to vote for a policy that is almost certain to make them poorer in the short term, especially those who don’t have the remaining lifespan to actually reap the benefits.

 

Firstly, you have to get the consent of the losing side. Barring something very unusual there’s going to be at least 40% (and far more likely 45%) of the voters that vote No again. Look at what happened in the UK between the 2016 EU referendum and the 2019 general election, the Remain side made every possible attempt to frustrate Brexit. 
 

You had calls for a soft Brexit, you had the Lib Dems calling for article 50 to be cancelled, you had protest movements, calls for a second referendum, parliamentary and legal gymnastics to remove power out of May and latterly Johnson’s hands, you had indicative votes that provided no solutions, and bizarre behaviour by Steve Bray.

 

There would of course be similar behaviour by unionists in the period between a successful referendum and independence being officially achieved. 
 

Secondly, the Scottish Government would be negotiating a deal with the UK government that doesn’t want to lose us. The UK government would have little incentive to concede much in the negotiations and would probably aim to serve us up such a rubbish deal in the hope that the political will in Scotland turns against the idea and its kiboshed.

 

Thirdly, trade barriers. 42% of UK exports and 48% of UK imports are to/from the EU. Conversely, 60% of Scottish exports and 67% of Scottish imports are to/from other parts of the UK. Any trading friction between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be felt at least as sorely as Brexit, if not significantly more so.

 

Fourthly, establishing diplomatic relations around the world and running key government departments is no mean feat. Whilst the Scottish government is responsible for the likes of health, education and transport, it has absolutely no experience of handling defence and foreign affairs. Furthermore, since the Labour government fell in 2010, only a small proportion of Scottish parliamentarians have experienced being in the government of an independent sovereign nation at all. By my count we had around 13 under the coalition, 1 under the second Cameron government, about a dozen after Theresa May’s hung Parliament election, and six now. None of them have held cabinet roles apart from Scottish secretaries Danny Alexander, Michael Moore, David Mundell and Alistair Jack.

 

Now, to borrow a quote from Johann Lamont, Scottish politicians aren’t genetically programmed to do a poor job at running these high profile government departments, but they are inexperienced and will take several years to find their feet.

Fifthly, there’s the currency thing. I think the long term desirable position would be to establish a Scottish currency, but this would take time and lead to fiscal volatility.

 

Sixthly, the EU debate. My view is that there will probably be a 3-option referendum following independence, with the options being 1. Stay out altogether, 2. Rejoin altogether, or 3. Join EFTA/EEA but not the EU

 

Option 2 would probably win, but I think the 3rd option would give it a right good go. After that there’s the non-insignificant matter of trying to get the best entry deal possible which would surely be significantly inferior to the terms the UK walked away from three years ago. 
 

Anyone expecting Scotland to be a land of milk and honey the day after a Yes vote has their head in the clouds. That doesn’t necessarily mean independence is a bad thing and won’t pay dividends in the medium to long term, but the first few years would be incredibly difficult. 

 

 

 

Interesting post.....but there some serious worst case assumptions being made.

I don't think anyone serious would suggest there will be no short term risk of economic volatility........perhaps even akin to the short term (not longer term) impact of Brexit/covid on the UK economy.

But let's also mention the likely possibility of strong economic growth post indy.

All of the European nations that became independent in the 1990's experienced sharp periods of economic growth. In their case this was in spite of transitioning from planned economies to the free market. We won't have such a burdensome transition, but what we will still have is the subsequent multiplied effect of revenue raised in Scotland, being spent in Scotland, creating economic growth in Scotland and multiplying the revenue raised in Scotland.

In the UK, the vast majority of such public spend is currently made in London and South East, who correspondingly receive the multiplied economic growth. Scotland (along with most other UK "regions") effectively heavily subsidises the capital and its surrounds.

Legacy UK may well talk tough initially. Scotland will be one of their biggest trade partners holding leverage over vital UK requirements such as power supply and water. Will they really cut off their nose? You could even speculate that future economic growth in our South and central belt would impact areas in the North of England, act as a balance to the current domination of the SE and act as a catalyst for their economy. 

If as suggested a large minority of the Scottish population initially poll against independence, how does that vote split? How will that vote behave post independence? How many will be "soft no" and how many will be the "no surrender/ Britnat" types.

I would suggest the former will clearly vastly outweigh the latter. Once realised the world ain't ending, I suspect they are not going to be motivated to destabilise the Scottish economy and will likely be very much pro Scotland and hostile to any such foreign attempt. This leaves a small minority in Scotland to be laughed at and pitied.

Yes..independence has short term risk of some volatilty.....but compared to the inveitable impoverishment of being tied to the failing UK it is the only sensible long term course.

 

[vikingTON]

There will be short-term disruption as well as the opportunity (not inevitable) to be better off in the medium and long-term. But the take-home conclusion has to be that the Yes movement should front up on economic issues instead of pretending that we will have our cake and eat it. Letting the currency issue fester was an unforced error in 2014 - if there's to be another Yes pitch, it's time to sell a harder but honest case based on decision-making and who cares if some shitebag is worried that their mortgage rate will tick up because of this political upheaval as opposed to the Liz Truss-shaped upheaval, or the Johnson farce, or any of the others. 

I'd prefer salami-slicing power until you change the locks and send a less than polite letter telling Westminster to f**k off, but the middle ground has run its course IMHO. It succeeded in building a large constituency for independence but a different approach is needed to push it over the top. 

[ICTChris]

Margaret Ferrier is being suspended from the Commons for 30 days.  If enough of her constituents sign a recall petition there will be a by election in Rutherglen.  Could be an interesting one.

[Zern]

Slim majority, plenty of votes available to flip to Labour should Rutherglen feel that way inclined.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Constituency) 2019 results - General election results - UK Parliament

[Trogdor]

The issue for the SNP will be getting the vote out in this one.

I don't subscribe to the SNP to Labour swing. I expect there will be a swing from the Tories to Labour reflecting the general mood.

However, I think the SNP vote share will drop because folk won't vote, to give them a bit of a bloody nose given the shambles since the turn of the year.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Trogdor

[Zern]

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

The issue for the SNP will be getting the vote out in this one.

I don't subscribe to the SNP to Labour swing. I expect there will be a swing from the Tories to Labour reflecting the general mood.

However, I think the SNP vote share will drop because folk won't vote, to give them a bit of a bloody nose given the shambles since the turn of the year.

Same, the idea that people who voted SNP will switch to Labour is very overplayed. They lost those voters for a reason. Starmer's tory-lite won't win them back.

I don't underestimate Labour's ability to f**k things up; imposition of a candidate that ignores local members wishes would be just the sort of thing to vacate their chances.

[RuMoore]

2 hours ago, Trogdor said:

The issue for the SNP will be getting the vote out in this one.

I don't subscribe to the SNP to Labour swing. I expect there will be a swing from the Tories to Labour reflecting the general mood.

However, I think the SNP vote share will drop because folk won't vote, to give them a bit of a bloody nose given the shambles since the turn of the year.

Agree with most of this but I think there will be a soft switch to Labour from some SNP voters. As you say more so because SNP voters might stay at home but there will definitely be some cross over bigger than some may expect imo. 

Since Musk took over Twitter i feel like a lot of wrong uns have been amplified and I've seen even some of the nutter Tory types supporting Labour in Scottish politics at least. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Share of the vote. Reckon Labour will take enough votes from the Tories combined with SNP stay homes to win this.

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, RuMoore said:

Agree with most of this but I think there will be a soft switch to Labour from some SNP voters. As you say more so because SNP voters might stay at home but there will definitely be some cross over bigger than some may expect imo. 

Since Musk took over Twitter i feel like a lot of wrong uns have been amplified and I've seen even some of the nutter Tory types supporting Labour in Scottish politics at least. 

Yeah, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I'm not convinced soft SNP voters exist anymore. There was a soft element of the vote pre the independence referendum. However, the independence campaign galvanised and hardened that support of the SNP.

Before then, it was clear that a section of the electorate were voting for the SNP as they thought they would govern best (how times change!) and not necessarily decided on independence. I'm not sure many of these types of voters still exist.

I can't speak to twitter as I don't use it day to day. It does seem to promote extremes though.

[Zern]

I'm not convinced either. The idea that there are people who voted SNP in 2019, whilst Labour where under Corbyn, that would flock to Starmer's party is tenuous. If anything Labour support from their base may fall and it will be Tory tactical votes that will be doing most of the heavy lifting. That's who Starmer appears intent on appealing to with current policies.

[RuMoore]

21 minutes ago, Zern said:

I'm not convinced either. The idea that there are people who voted SNP in 2019, whilst Labour where under Corbyn, that would flock to Starmer's party is tenuous. If anything Labour support from their base may fall and it will be Tory tactical votes that will be doing most of the heavy lifting. That's who Starmer appears intent on appealing to with current policies.

Tbf I don't see anybody on here claiming that SNP voters would flock to Labour. 

There's certainly SNP voters that would prefer a Starmer like approach than a Corbyn one though, I think you're underestimating the fair weather centrist voters. A fair amount of people voted against Corbyn rather than in support of Boris and now with both out the picture I can see a lot of them returning home to Labour. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by RuMoore