Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[DeeTillEhDeh]

10 minutes ago, renton said:

I dunno, Lib Dems up by 6, Greens up by 2. Absolutely will have been a swing to Labour but need to see if it's the same depth in other pollsters. Even then, was guaranteed to happen with a leadership election.

Not sure about their competence either - asking about The Green Party and Plaid Cymru in one question.

[lichtgilphead]

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now, 1st - 9th March 2023)

Yes 52%

No 48%

 

Here are a few random nuggets from the data tables - 

 

* Exactly one-quarter of Labour voters from 2019 would now vote Yes to independence.

 

* There's no real gender divide anymore, and in fact the Yes lead is very slightly bigger among women (Yes 50%, No 45% before the exclusion of Don't Knows).

 

* All age groups below 45 show a Yes lead, and the strongest Yes lead of all is among 25-34 year olds (Yes 71%, No 23%).  The tightest result is among 45-54 year olds, who break for No by 53% to 47%.

 

* All social class groupings show a very similar Yes lead with the sole exception of the highest-earning "ABs", who have No ahead by a whopping 64% to 32%.

 

* I have a sort of prejudice which means that I never take regional subsamples particularly seriously, but for what it's worth the highest support for independence appears to be in Glasgow: Yes 56%, No 39%.

 

It is unlikely there will be another referendum on Scottish independence soon, because the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the UK Government's permission would be required. Suppose the SNP, and other pro-independence parties, make a commitment in their election manifestos to negotiate a settlement with the UK Government so that Scotland becomes an independent country. If pro-independence parties win more than 50% of the vote in Scotland on that manifesto commitment, do you agree or disagree that they will have a democratic mandate to negotiate an independence settlement with the UK Government?

 

Agree: 33%

Disagree: 30%

Don't Know / Prefer Not To Say: 37%

 

With Don't Knows removed, that works out at roughly 52% for 'Agree' and 48% for 'Disagree'.  However, arguably much more to the point are the results among SNP voters.

 

SNP voters only:

Agree: 69%

Disagree: 5%

Don't Know / Prefer Not To Say: 26%

 

After Don't Knows are stripped out, that's a whopping 93% for 'Agree' and only 7% for 'Disagree'. 

 

Full article here: https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-find-out-now.html

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now, 1st - 9th March 2023)

Yes 52%

No 48%

 

Here are a few random nuggets from the data tables - 

 

* Exactly one-quarter of Labour voters from 2019 would now vote Yes to independence.

 

* There's no real gender divide anymore, and in fact the Yes lead is very slightly bigger among women (Yes 50%, No 45% before the exclusion of Don't Knows).

 

* All age groups below 45 show a Yes lead, and the strongest Yes lead of all is among 25-34 year olds (Yes 71%, No 23%).  The tightest result is among 45-54 year olds, who break for No by 53% to 47%.

 

* All social class groupings show a very similar Yes lead with the sole exception of the highest-earning "ABs", who have No ahead by a whopping 64% to 32%.

 

* I have a sort of prejudice which means that I never take regional subsamples particularly seriously, but for what it's worth the highest support for independence appears to be in Glasgow: Yes 56%, No 39%.

 

It is unlikely there will be another referendum on Scottish independence soon, because the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the UK Government's permission would be required. Suppose the SNP, and other pro-independence parties, make a commitment in their election manifestos to negotiate a settlement with the UK Government so that Scotland becomes an independent country. If pro-independence parties win more than 50% of the vote in Scotland on that manifesto commitment, do you agree or disagree that they will have a democratic mandate to negotiate an independence settlement with the UK Government?

 

Agree: 33%

Disagree: 30%

Don't Know / Prefer Not To Say: 37%

 

With Don't Knows removed, that works out at roughly 52% for 'Agree' and 48% for 'Disagree'.  However, arguably much more to the point are the results among SNP voters.

 

SNP voters only:

Agree: 69%

Disagree: 5%

Don't Know / Prefer Not To Say: 26%

 

After Don't Knows are stripped out, that's a whopping 93% for 'Agree' and only 7% for 'Disagree'. 

 

Full article here: https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/exclusive-scot-goes-pop-find-out-now.html

Ifpro-independence parties win more than 50% of the vote in Scotland on that manifesto commitment, do you agree or disagree that they will have a democratic mandate to negotiate an independence settlement with the UK Government?

 

SNP voters only:

Agree: 69%

Disagree: 5%

Don't Know / Prefer Not To Say: 26%
 

After Don't Knows are stripped out, that's a whopping 93% for 'Agree' and only 7% for 'Disagree'. 

 

 

So which of the leadership candidates are in touch with the membership?

[GTee]

It's the demographics. Younger folk don't have an attachment to empire, war, royalty, and probably look at Westminster and the House of Lords with no idea of what's going on. Probably see past the subsidy junkie shite and realise it's best to be self governing.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

12 hours ago, GTee said:

It's the demographics. Younger folk don't have an attachment to empire, war, royalty, and probably look at Westminster and the House of Lords with no idea of what's going on. Probably see past the subsidy junkie shite and realise it's best to be self governing.

 

Yup. Like a proper country 

[TheScarf]

22 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Yup. Like a proper country 

Independence, as they say, is normal.

[Blue-Toon]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/04/20/snp-hit-post-referendum-holyrood-vote-lows

[CambieBud]

So, despite the U.K. state sponsored sustained media attacks, for weeks against the SNP and independence in general, Scottish Labour have barely increased support. 
Maybe if they had some non Tory policies it would help? I know, what am I thinking

[Antlion]

2 hours ago, CambieBud said:

So, despite the U.K. state sponsored sustained media attacks, for weeks against the SNP and independence in general, Scottish Labour have barely increased support. 
Maybe if they had some non Tory policies it would help? I know, what am I thinking

Actually existing might help them more.

[Donathan]

New yougov MRP poll shows the SNP losing 23 seats to Labour. The vast majority of the seats form a “tartan wall” from Fife and East Lothian, right through Glasgow and the Central belt, ending with the loss of inverclyde and Mhairi Black’s Renfrewshire seat.

 

Aside from this, the SNP are also projected to lose Na h-Eileanan an Iar to Labour but to gain two seats from the Conservatives in the North East.

 

In total the SNP are expected to be the largest party with 27 seats, Labour with 24, the Tories and Lib Dems each with 4.

 

I don’t think Humza Yousaf is long for his job. If these polling numbers continue I can see Forbes building up enough support to oust him or even Nicola Sturgeon being convinced to come back out of retirement to steady the ship. 

[ICTChris]

I doubt Sturgeon will be coming back, given what's happened since she resigned.  If the SNP have any sense they won't change the leader, it just makes them look completely out of control.  If I was Kate Forbes, I'd also prefer for Yusef to remain in place for any election losses and then take over in the aftermath.  

ETA - The issues that exist for the SNP will be there whoever the leader is.  The Supreme Court ruling effectively ends the established route to a second independence referendum and no-one can really explain what the strategy is to get around this.  This problem remains for the SNP and pro-independence campaigners no matter who is leader.

Edited May 24, 2023 by ICTChris

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

I doubt Sturgeon will be coming back, given what's happened since she resigned.  If the SNP have any sense they won't change the leader, it just makes them look completely out of control.  If I was Kate Forbes, I'd also prefer for Yusef to remain in place for any election losses and then take over in the aftermath.  

ETA - The issues that exist for the SNP will be there whoever the leader is.  The Supreme Court ruling effectively ends the established route to a second independence referendum and no-one can really explain what the strategy is to get around this.  This problem remains for the SNP and pro-independence campaigners no matter who is leader.

The route to a second referendum is the same as the route to the first referendum. Namely, a section 30 order being granted by the UK government of the day.

 

Now it looks increasingly unlikely that the SNP are going to be able to extract a s30 by asking the prime minister politely like Alex Salmond did with David Cameron a decade or so ago. For that reason, the obvious route to a s30 is to negotiate one in return for supporting a UK government in the event of a hung Parliament after the next general election (or any future general election for that matter)

 

Losing 20+ seats to Labour really eats in to the one bit of leverage the SNP have here. At worst, from the SNP’s perspective, those 20 seats hand Starmer a majority. Even if not, they at least hand him the ability to form a minority government with other centre left parties (Lib Dems, Greens etc) that excludes the SNP and therefore the ability of the SNP to demand a s30.

 

Lets be clear about it, retaining at least 40-45 MPs is the absolute minimum the SNP need to do to keep the s30 on the table otherwise they have no leverage left.

 

 

At the moment that leverage is not useful because the UK government of today enjoys a whomping majority and don’t need support for other parties but that won’t always be the case, and indeed wasn’t the case after two of the last four general elections.

 

If the SNP continue on a trajectory to lose 20+ seats next year, something needs to be done about that. 

[Suspect Device]

 

Ipsos STV poll: SNP support falls in wake of Nicola Sturgeon resignation and police finance probe | STV News

 

[Highlandmagar]

If the Scottish electorate vote big again for Labour after being shafted for so many years by them, then they deserve the utter shitstorm that the right wing c***s of their leadership will bring.

[ScotiaNostra]

Indy support high, snp support falling. Independence will come just might not be through the SNP

[TheScarf]

7 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

Indy support high, snp support falling. Independence will come just might not be through the SNP

It's been pointed out on here before, people who want independence aren't just going to start voting No and for the right-wing Brexit parties of Tory and Labour because Sturgeon resigned and her husband was arrested.  Yes, they may stop voting for the SNP, but not for independence.  Yet the Unionist media and the afore mentioned right-wing Brexit parties of Tory and Labour and their voters, still believe the SNP = Independence.  And more fool them for doing so.

Scottish citizens are tired of Westminster and us getting what England votes for.  

[Kejan]

I'm surprised at that 53% Yes, fingers crossed it continues ; what a bipolar nation we are though when it comes to independence. I'm fully expecting now the next 5 polls to have Yes on 43%

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The SNP would bite your hand off for 44 seats in the next GE.

[CambieBud]

Frankly that poll is pretty remarkable given the sustained witch hunt against the SNP in the last few months. Despite this, that poll still suggests 44 SNP MP’s. Sir Manofthepeople possibly on 9 Scottish MPs is still pathetic.

[Highlandmagar]

2 minutes ago, CambieBud said:

Frankly that poll is pretty remarkable given the sustained witch hunt against the SNP in the last few months. Despite this, that poll still suggests 44 SNP MP’s. Sir Manofthepeople possibly on 9 Scottish MPs is still pathetic.

Still 9 too many.