Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Wee Bully]

1 hour ago, Lex said:

Ooft.

Really interesting.  Have you looked at the data tables?  500 questioned in Scotland and a 4.4% margin of error due to data size.  Data tables are for the UK as a whole, and “SNP” isn’t a party listed on voting intentions. Also carried out by a market research company new to the UK.

Apart from that, this is devastating for Sturgeon!

[welshbairn]

If the 15% Don't Knows figure is accurate there's everything to play for.

[doulikefish]

Lex missed this one 

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1542283686560907270?t=cGiXUh6bEkqnNcqq87yIFw&s=19

[Granny Danger]

If YES have no chance of winning then there’s no justification for the unionists to deny us a second Referendum.

[Suspect Device]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

If the 15% Don't Knows figure is accurate there's everything to play for.

The problem is that if people are Don't know, I'd say they are more likely to play safe and stick with the status quo. What does it take for folk to be convinced?

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

The problem is that if people are Don't know, I'd say they are more likely to play safe and stick with the status quo. What does it take for folk to be convinced?

The Yes side was far better at recruiting votes as the campaign got going last time around, from under 30% to 45%. They'll have to come out with something more solid on currency, eu relations etc this time, I think Salmond's tactic to swerve around the issues last time was why he lost.

[Duries Air Freshener]

3 hours ago, Lex said:

Ooft.

Superb, and the higher the 'don't knows' - the better for the Union.

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

The problem is that if people are Don't know, I'd say they are more likely to play safe and stick with the status quo. What does it take for folk to be convinced?

What status quo, though? Brexit Britain is still a work in … regress?

[Salt n Vinegar]

1 hour ago, Antlion said:

What status quo, though? Brexit Britain is still a work in … regress?

I confess to recently becoming a bit of a fan of James O'Brien on lbc. 

He likes to look at the things that the Government and the Maily Dail and similar outlets want the electorate to be angry about and the number of entries might surprise folk if they actually think about it. 

These are the kind of things that the Government doesn't like as they are critical of policy or even have the nefve to ask awkward questions. So far, he has listed the Monarchy and the Church of England (Rwanda), judges, lawyers, the law itself, universities and experts, the former head of the Bank of England, unions, the right to protest, select committees of the HoC (even the Committee on Standards which has a Conservative majority), the BBC, Channel 4 and now even seem to rage about a bank allowing its staff to have preferred gender pronouns on their name badges. I mean seriously - anger about name badges . 

There will be others that escape me at the moment.  Now, call me suspicious if you like (form an orderly queue) but when a government sets out to demean, silence or even effectively abolish any meaningful questioning, or vehicles for criticism or protest, I doubt it will end well. 

So, is Brexit Britain a work in regress? Abso-bloody-lutely!

 

[Kenneth840]

2 hours ago, Antlion said:

What status quo, though? Brexit Britain is still a work in … regress?

This guy speaks about the status quo.  Regardless of anyones opinion on the blogger, read the article posted.  

https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2022/06/29/england-cannot-be-trusted/

Quote

Constitutional conversations have to involve hard questions for those of us who want change on this island. But no one can now assume a stable, trusty status quo underwritten by a UK government committed to basic norms.

 

[doulikefish]

Sunday times poll

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

[sophia]

On 01/07/2022 at 12:17, doulikefish said:

Lex missed this one 

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1542283686560907270?t=cGiXUh6bEkqnNcqq87yIFw&s=19

Hiya @Lex Hiya pal. Don't miss this one 

v

v 

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21 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Sunday times poll

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c4551f8a-fa1c-11ec-b060-3c9acf7f2ee6?shareToken=2c5e3da0223c880133d77f4a003724fb

"On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know."

Ooft indeed

 

[John Lambies Doos]

"On the question of whether or not they support independence, 48 per cent said they were in favour while 47 per cent were opposed. Five per cent said they did not know."
Ooft indeed
 

In fairness to@Lex he has a point. All the 50/50 stuff is no use, as no will win as yes will fall slightly back.
We really need to be seeing 58+ for yes on continuous basis before we should get too excited. Now plenty of time for that to happen.

[Suspect Device]

Still nothing in it.

 

 

[sophia]

31 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Still nothing in it.

That's the point, it's 50/50 just at the moment and to present it as anything different portrays a fear.

I'm not so sure I agree with @John Lambies Doos but they do raise the question of risk, do we grasp this opportunity or consolidate?

Stopping at Derby and where we are in 2022 goes to the heart of it and I'm not sure I have a firm view on strategy.

[moses1924]

Good Jacobite analogy there @sophiaproblem is if the jacobites had carried on to London they would have lost which in this context means dont go for a referendum...

[HeartsOfficialMoaner]

9 hours ago, sophia said:

That's the point, it's 50/50 just at the moment and to present it as anything different portrays a fear.

I'm not so sure I agree with @John Lambies Doos but they do raise the question of risk, do we grasp this opportunity or consolidate?

Stopping at Derby and where we are in 2022 goes to the heart of it and I'm not sure I have a firm view on strategy.

Consolidate is the rational answer. The 58% will come 10 years from now.

[Granny Danger]

There are so many reasons to have Indy2 now, not the least being the huge loss of support for the SNPif they don’t follow through on their mandate.

I don’t accept that we will necessarily be in a better place 10 years from now.  The last decade has shown not only the level but the rate of change in the political landscape and I think we’re better taking our chances now.

I’m encouraged by the polls and think there is still more momentum for the YES campaign.

[BigDoddyKane]

I think now is a time when it can be won with a good campaign, it cant be taken for granted that the indy vote will grow with time and demographics. Though it may be the case that it does.

The young generations coming up in future may look on the indy topic as boring by then if nothing has happened and all they hear are the clowns on either side speaking for years on it. 

[Brother Blades]

47 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I think now is a time when it can be won with a good campaign, it cant be taken for granted that the indy vote will grow with time and demographics. Though it may be the case that it does.

The young generations coming up in future may look on the indy topic as boring by then if nothing has happened and all they hear are the clowns on either side speaking for years on it. 

I agree, a lot of younger people who were ardent in 2014 or more specifically, the aftermath of 2014 are turned off by the whole thing. You only need to look at AUOB marches to see the drop off in interest.

Indy needs to run a great campaign,  way better than 2014 IMO, we need to engage, have answers to every question- currency, EU, our future relationship with rUK, obviously it’ll be down to the SNP to bring forward the answers, but it’s up to all Independence supporters to become activists. We cannot rely on demographics. This really is our last chance- for way more than a generation, if we shit it this time, it’s dead in the water for most people who post on here now. Get active.