lichtgilphead Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oddly, in the "Which of the following describes your national identity" section, the largest group (by quite some margin) identify as "equally Scottish & British". That doesn't seem typical, does it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Mills Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oddly, in the "Which of the following describes your national identity" section, the largest group (by quite some margin) identify as "equally Scottish & British". That doesn't seem typical, does it? The 2011 census showed that almost two thirds of Scots felt Scottish only and only about a quarter felt they had any British identity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 (edited) Note the trend in Labour voters on that graph. Alongside the idea that the less afluent areas are liable to vote yes, are we seeing a small amount of momentum in the Labour heartlands towards yes? Didnt you previously dispute that Yes was (relatively) more popular in less affluent areas and No was the clear winner in wealthier areas? I take it you are now accepting this is the case? Edited December 10, 2013 by H_B 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Didnt you previously dispute that Yes was (relatively) more popular in less affluent areas and No was the clear winner in wealthier areas?I take it you are now accepting this is the case? I think I acceptedvthat correction at the time. If not then yeah the evidence points that way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Does anyone agree that the turnout will be far far far more than 60%, if the poor people vote YES will win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think I acceptedvthat correction at the time. If not then yeah the evidence points that way. I never really got why you doubted it before. It was pretty obvious. Im not sure this latest poll tells us very much. The gap between Yes and No looks a bit high to be honest. Perhaps it shows that the whole White Paper launch was the damp squib it looked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I spoke to a few folk last night and its appearing to be the same all over the country. Lots of anger towards labour as well which doesn't bode well for Lamont, especially as its in what they would perceive as their core support. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I never really got why you doubted it before. It was pretty obvious. Im not sure this latest poll tells us very much. The gap between Yes and No looks a bit high to be honest. Perhaps it shows that the whole White Paper launch was the damp squib it looked. Nonsense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm also beginning to think the missing million is going to turn up on the day.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm also beginning to think the missing million is going to turn up on the day.... Missing million ??? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm also beginning to think the missing million is going to turn up on the day.... What, do you think the turnout could be laughing at 60 to 80% as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Missing million ??? I would assume he means it will be an exceptionally high turn out. 90% plus? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would assume he means it will be an exceptionally high turn out. 90% plus? No chance. 70% or slightly over would be an excellent turnout. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would assume he means it will be an exceptionally high turn out. 90% plus? Ahh right. I see 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 No chance. 70% or slightly over would be an excellent turnout. I agree it would be. My guess has always been around 80%, but if you are hearing differently on the doorsteps and high streets it would lead you to believe otherwise. You cannot argue that this isn't an exceptional vote, which may lead to an exceptional turnout As usual the weather on the day will have a big impact on people actually voting.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Oil its running out,or maybe not http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2131258/North-Sea-oil-will-last-for-100-years.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm Brian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Jesus. 100 years of volatility. It's just too much to risk. Stop the drilling now. We should just leave our country's fate in the hands of something less volatile, like the FTSE 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I never really got why you doubted it before. It was pretty obvious. Im not sure this latest poll tells us very much. The gap between Yes and No looks a bit high to be honest. Perhaps it shows that the whole White Paper launch was the damp squib it looked. I honestly remembered seeing something to the contrary, despite it being counterintuitive. As for the poll, well, not much, the top line is skewed by the weighting which would assume a Lamont led government in 2016 in defiance of all other available polling data, as well as a relatively large vote for the Tories. Below that headline is the number of Labour voters defecting to Yes semes ot have an upward trend, which if continued as it has over the last year could see ~25% of them vote yes on the day. It's that upwards Labour yes support and a kick up in SNP support from the alst one that seems to drive the 3% to yes swing. Ironically, Panelbase, every Yes supporters favoured polling company, would likely show the same results as quite static, as their Holyrood weighting would mean the SNP wer epresnet in alrger numbers such that any swing to yes from labour would form a lower percentage of the overall sample. Other than that, the gender gap is still alive and kicking, f**k knows how you deal with that. As for the white paper, it looks like amongst the undecided voters it's had a slight positive effect, but then I doubt it's intention was to provide an immediate masive swing in the polls anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Jesus. 100 years of volatility. It's just too much to risk. Stop the drilling now. We should just leave our country's fate in the hands of something less volatile, like the FTSE I agree, far far too risky. We should leave it to the tories and new labour to sort out. They'll keep us right. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wingsoverperthshire Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That weighting in the tables does look weird, and seems to have more Labour than SNP voters, while aloting the Tories a larger share of the vote than might otherwise make sense. http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-monitor-tables-december-2013.pdf I'm not really making a comment about the veracity or 'fairness' of the polling, I'm just sad enough to find the methodology interesting. ....as am I According to the poll: 307 respondents are voting Labour 294 SNP 136 Conservative 77 Lib dem 66 other ---- 880 34% Labour 33% SNP 15% Tories 9% Diddies 7% others Given that these figures are way out from what is collected in the real world I don't believe the poll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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