Scottish Independence

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Really? you've been saying this for months?

Tom Costley, head of TNS in Scotland, said: “The narrowing of the gap represents a drift in both the Yes and the No votes, rather than any strong movement on either side."

Oh dear oh dear. Clearly you never watched the Newsnicht link above that I was referring to. Still, its all going to plan. Taste the fear.

[H_B 1,715]

His own poll shows a 1.47% shift towards YES from November to December.

It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013.

Momentummmm

Edited December 20, 2013 by H_B

[H_B 1,715]

What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in.

[Ad Lib 2,622]

His own poll shows a 1.47% shift towards YES from November to December.

Here's a snippet from their own website.

However, the small month-by-month changes in opinion have reduced the lead of the No vote by 5 percentage points since September, and by 7 percentage points among those certain to vote.

1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum".

It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013.

Momentummmm

Precisely. It's bobbing along.

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What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in.

Sure, as the polls narrow, and the No lot get ever more panicky, just you keep telling yourself that. The polls are closing, and the pollsters are agreeing with the trend I spotted months ago. Tide has turned now boy.

[ayrmad 3,492]

It also shows a reduction in Yes support of 4% from April 2013 to 27th November 2013.

Momentummmm

How long do want to go back, the longer you go back the longer it takes for momentum to be noticed, go and look at the indicators for the stock market, 200 day and 50 day to see this in action.

[ayrmad 3,492]

1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum".

I hope the NO camp have this plastered all over their HQ.

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1.47%, within the margin of error, can be anything from a 1.63% reverse to a 3.47% gain. For proof of "momentum" we'd need to see something in several opinion pollsters between polls in excess of 3% (plus or minus margin of error). The long-term momentum, by that metric, is essentially zero, in some cases being only marginally positive or negative. This does not represent "momentum".

Precisely. It's bobbing along.

This is pathetic stuff stampy. No matter how many tantrums you have, we can all see it, and so can you, if you cease being so dishonest.

[ayrmad 3,492]

What's undeniably the case is that 27% for Yes less 10 months before the referendum is an absolutely disasterous position to be in.

This is like thinking your hand is the winner at poker b4 the other player has shown you theirs, fine if you got the nuts but a bit stupid to jump up and down if you haven't.

[H_B 1,715]

How long do want to go back, the longer you go back the longer it takes for momentum to be noticed, go and look at the indicators for the stock market, 200 day and 50 day to see this in action.

Right.

So why have Yes votes been like snow off a dyke since April of this year?

Why is Yes much less popular with voters now than it was 7/8 months ago. After the much heralded White Paper?

[ayrmad 3,492]

Right.

So why have Yes votes been like snow off a dyke since April of this year?

Why is Yes much less popular with voters now than it was 7/8 months ago. After the much heralded White Paper?

Evidence.

[H_B 1,715]

Evidence.

TNS-BMRB had Yes at 30% on 02/04/13.

TNS-BMRB now has Yes at 26% at 27/11/13.

Why has there been such a reduction in Yes support since April?

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You would think they would have brought this up on that newsnicht link. Once again, Ad Lib and HB are the world experts in, well, everything. They know better than the lawyers about law, better than the pollsters about polls, and indeed, neither has ever been wrong.

[H_B 1,715]

So for those of us who didn't see Newsnight, why has Yes lost 4% since April, after the White Paper has been launched?

Why is Yes less popular now than it was 8 months ago?

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You really have got incredibly frantic over the last year. Over the last year, your law squad has been exposed as serial liars, terrible pundits, racists, and woefully ignorant about reality. If you believe that independence support is falling, then you are wrong and deluded. Do you believe that support for independence is falling?

[H_B 1,715]

You really have got incredibly frantic over the last year. Over the last year, your law squad has been exposed as serial liars, terrible pundits, racists, and woefully ignorant about reality. If you believe that independence support is falling, then you are wrong and deluded. Do you believe that support for independence is falling?

I believe support for Independence is static. Around 1 in 3. It's going nowhere.

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I believe support for Independence is static. Around 1 in 3. It's going nowhere.

I thought it was falling like (and I quote) "Snow off a dyke"?

[ayrmad 3,492]

TNS-BMRB had Yes at 30% on 02/04/13.

TNS-BMRB now has Yes at 26% at 27/11/13.

Why has there been such a reduction in Yes support since April?

Would you not be better judging their poll immediately b4 and after if you're looking for movement?

If I go back long enough I'm quite sure I could find a poll that says support for independence has almost doubled.

The problem you're going to have is when the only poll that counts returns an independent Scotland.

Just so you don't get confused Yes gained .9% between those 2 polls.

Edited December 20, 2013 by ayrmad

[H_B 1,715]

If I go back long enough I'm quite sure I could find a poll that says support for independence has almost doubled.

Good luck finding me that one. Off you pop though - would love to see it.

Please don't avoid the question though - why has support for Yes crumbled since April?

[ayrmad 3,492]

Good luck finding me that one. Off you pop though - would love to see it.

I'm sure SNP HQ will every poll going back to their inception.

Please don't avoid the question though - why has support for Yes crumbled since April?

The fact that they gained 0.9% between those 2 polls shows you're talking out of your arse.